Guest Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does. Even though I'm in the deflation camp, I do get that this all ends ugly when the cb's stop buying treasuries and hyperinflation ensues briefly. Then everything crashes to earth in a deflationary death spiral. Right? But what I don't get is, what will make them stop buying treasuries? What's their line in the sand, pain threshold? When does buying more treasuries inflict more pain on Japan than if they wouldn't? Has anyone done the math and figured this out? It's possible we are in a blowoff that lasts for years no? Maybe this is a dumb question, but I ask anyway: Why are the Central Banks buying our Treasuries when there is little indication that they will rise? What am I missing? I would think that CB's would want to make money, i.e., do they expect US Treasuries to rise? Can someone explain this to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 August 21, 2004 -- News item. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have openings for about 3,000 jobs. Pay ranges from $20.68 to $28 an hour. The ports have been staggered with the response. There were 500,000 applicants for the 3,000 jobs! So what's going on the employment front? In the big picture -- the US is losing it manufacturing base. US manufacturing is being exported to overseas. The US is losing half a billion dollars annually in combined total assets to our overseas "friends" via our trade deficit. I can't care how you cut it or disguise it, this has got to hit US employment. And it is. Is it just manufacturing that is suffering? Hardly. An August 18 New York Times article is headlined, "Financial Firms Hasten Their Move to Outsourcing." In a Deloitte Research paper, Deloitte stated that "the unexpectedly rapid growth rate for offshoreing shows no signs of abating, despite negative publicity about job losses." The report said" Offshoring has created a truly global operating model for financial services, unleashing a new and potent competitive dynamic that is changing the rules of the game for the entire financial industry. . . . In a new report, "Offshoring," A Detour Along the Automation Highway, it was estimated that potentially 2.3 million American jobs in the banking and securities industries could be lost to outsourcing abroad. "Experts say that with China, India, the former Soviet Republic and other nations embracing free trade and capitalism, there is a population 10 times that of the United States with average wage advantages of 85 to 95 percent. Deloitte forecast that in the year 2010 the 100 largest global financial institutions will move $400 billion of their work offshore for $150 billion in annual savings." And this from a letter published in the latest issue of Barron's. "Let keep in mind that this country must create about 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth. Therefore, just to stay even, we should have created 6,500,000 new jobs since Bush took office. Adding the 1,000,000 jobs lost to the 6,500,000 jobs which should have been created, but were not, and you get real jobs lost of about 7,500,000. Not a pretty picture!" - Russell, Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 23, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does. Even though I'm in the deflation camp, I do get that this all ends ugly when the cb's stop buying treasuries and hyperinflation ensues briefly. Then everything crashes to earth in a deflationary death spiral. Right? But what I don't get is, what will make them stop buying treasuries? What's their line in the sand, pain threshold? When does buying more treasuries inflict more pain on Japan than if they wouldn't? Has anyone done the math and figured this out? It's possible we are in a blowoff that lasts for years no? The willingness and ability of the CBs to expand their respective monetary bases can only be guessed at right now. With present day super-cooled computers and high speed internet, a hyperinflationary crack up boom will probably be shorter in time than historical examples. It's possible it could all be over in a year or two. Actions taken by CBs also do have an effect on the 'real world'. Personal savings of foreign countries, which are effectively transferred to the US due to Treasury purchases, reduce the savings pool in those countries. Lower savings could lead to higher interest rates and/or a decline in investment there. Japan has been mired for some time dealing with the after effects of a real estate bubble and savings leaving the country - forcibly through the BOJ/MOF. BTW - Where is jrmfl posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 I'm surprised no one has comments on the plan by Republican Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas to dismantle the CIA, remove the NSA from Pentagon control, and have a national intelligence director who controls virtually all funding for counterterrorism and counterintelligence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 23, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does. Even though I'm in the deflation camp, I do get that this all ends ugly when the cb's stop buying treasuries and hyperinflation ensues briefly. Then everything crashes to earth in a deflationary death spiral. Right? But what I don't get is, what will make them stop buying treasuries? What's their line in the sand, pain threshold? When does buying more treasuries inflict more pain on Japan than if they wouldn't? Has anyone done the math and figured this out? It's possible we are in a blowoff that lasts for years no? Maybe this is a dumb question, but I ask anyway: Why are the Central Banks buying our Treasuries when there is little indication that they will rise? What am I missing? I would think that CB's would want to make money, i.e., do they expect US Treasuries to rise? Can someone explain this to me? Mostly to "peg" the dollar at a fixed exchange rate vis-a-vis their currency. Other reasons include payback to the US for defense - or even just an overly rapid accumulation of US$s due to trade. Note the trade deficit is growing ever higher at an accelerating rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 my 2 cents in the great tire debate: I think Plunger has made some good points, and agree with his comments this weekend that replacement tire purchases are easy to delay when money is tight. But i also agree that if you're going to short the tire makers based on this funnymental argument, it's important to take into account the probable shift from new car tire sales to replacement sales (I don't think there's disagreement on this point though). From a trading perspective, I mentined this weekend I was watching GT, but agree with windy that it's too early to short, it's still in an uptrend. Sorry to be so agreeable. Price a new 17 inch tire, or even better, the new 18 inch tire for these passenger sedans. The gentleman I have spoken with over at Costco laughed as he explained the bitching & moaning the owners go thru when they realize the extreme costs associated with a 30,000.00 car. I said, " you mean the same folks that buy an oil filter for the 30,000.00 car at Autozone?" He said, "yeah those folks." Then there's the SUV's tires... lmao. Seems everybody is running to the Japanese tire makers... I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 I'm surprised no one has comments on the plan by Republican Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas to dismantle the CIA, remove the NSA from Pentagon control, and have a national intelligence director who controls virtually all funding for counterterrorism and counterintelligence. same matrix different org charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 window closed a few minutes ago and again it was OK as I said earlier it is downhill from here-the Pig limps on alone until just before the square! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Drano- what Roberts is talking about is the "duplication" of services. Just as the U.S. Border Patrol Chief here was not happy about Fridge deploying Homeland securities own Air and Sea Corps on the Canadian Border. What this will all result in other than a financial boondoggle will be total confusion and jealousy among Agencies each with their own little turf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Attn: Machinehead Beans are off the lows............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 my 2 cents in the great tire debate: I think Plunger has made some good points, and agree with his comments this weekend that replacement tire purchases are easy to delay when money is tight.? But i also agree that if you're going to short the tire makers based on this funnymental argument, it's important to take into account the probable shift from new car tire sales to replacement sales (I don't think there's disagreement on this point though).? From a trading perspective, I mentined this weekend I was watching GT, but agree with windy that it's too early to short, it's still in an uptrend.? Sorry to be so agreeable. Price a new 17 inch tire, or even better, the new 18 inch tire for these passenger sedans. The gentleman I have spoken with over at Costco laughed as he explained the bitching & moaning the owners go thru when they realize the extreme costs associated with a 30,000.00 car. I said, " you mean the same folks that buy an oil filter for the 30,000.00 car at Autozone?" He said, "yeah those folks." Then there's the SUV's tires... lmao. Seems everybody is running to the Japanese tire makers... I did. Not me. Even though I'm a huge fan of CostCo, at Sears (on sale) I bought Goodyears that were made in USA for the same price as Japanese tires at CostCo. I'm not going to lament lost jobs here and then buy foreign-made tires when I can get the same items but made in U.S. I will also be buying a new vacuum cleaner -- a Hoover, because that's the only brand still made here, and a good model is available for a very reasonable price. If we are going to lament the loss of our manufacturing base, we need to support those few left here when we can. I know people who have lost jobs in manufacturing. This gives one a strong incentive to support those companies still providing work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 my 2 cents in the great tire debate: I think Plunger has made some good points, and agree with his comments this weekend that replacement tire purchases are easy to delay when money is tight. But i also agree that if you're going to short the tire makers based on this funnymental argument, it's important to take into account the probable shift from new car tire sales to replacement sales (I don't think there's disagreement on this point though). From a trading perspective, I mentined this weekend I was watching GT, but agree with windy that it's too early to short, it's still in an uptrend. Sorry to be so agreeable. Price a new 17 inch tire, or even better, the new 18 inch tire for these passenger sedans. The gentleman I have spoken with over at Costco laughed as he explained the bitching & moaning the owners go thru when they realize the extreme costs associated with a 30,000.00 car. I said, " you mean the same folks that buy an oil filter for the 30,000.00 car at Autozone?" He said, "yeah those folks." Then there's the SUV's tires... lmao. Seems everybody is running to the Japanese tire makers... I did. Not me. Even though I'm a huge fan of CostCo, at Sears (on sale) I bought Goodyears that were made in USA for the same price as Japanese tires at CostCo. I'm not going to lament lost jobs here and then buy foreign-made tires when I can get the same items but made in U.S. I will also be buying a new vacuum cleaner -- a Hoover, because that's the only brand still made here, and a good model is available for a very reasonable price. If we are going to lament the loss of our manufacturing base, we need to support those few left here when we can. I know people who have lost jobs in manufacturing. This gives one a strong incentive to support those companies still providing work here. Drano, I bought the Japanese tires at Sears. H rated was cheaper for me. If I had wanted to, I could have bought an even cheaper brand that was Japanese made. All depends on the size & age of the car. When I needed a 17in a few years ago,... I was outraged at the cost. Now.. they're a little more competitve in price. The good ones still are expensive, but I'm incline to say, from my experience, there's always a cheaper Japanese outfit, beside the USA tire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Dec. 04. Buying that dip, maybe? Does Wall Struck love drama or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 tires tires tires when i need tires, I printout the results from http://www.tirerack.com/ take the printout down to a local shop and quietly ask the guy behind the counter if they can match or beat... they always can :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted August 23, 2004 Report Share Posted August 23, 2004 Yes, that's exactly my point. There's always going to be a cheaper foreign-made product. However, I have found that if I have larger purchases like tires and vacuum cleaners (and obviously those are not items you need to buy every year), if I know what I want and look for a sale, I can find an American-made one for the same price. My Goodyears were actually cheaper than CostCo's tires. Henry Ford, not an admirable character in many ways, nevertheless had the right idea when he paid his workers a high wage -- so that they would be able to afford to buy the product they made. If all companies had an understanding that keeping people employed was necessary for their future success, we would not be in the mess we're in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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