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B4 The Bell Wednesday August 18


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New York crude-oil futures breached $47 a barrel for the first time Wednesday, as concerns over potential supply disruptions at a time of strong demand continues to bolster prices.

 

In electronic trading, the September contract was last at $47.13 a barrel, up 38 cents.

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OIL,,,,,,,,,,,$47.12............up .37

* sigh *

 

When will the worrywarts start paying attention to the 'experts':

 

"We don't currently see any negative impact from the oil price and we still have very robust global growth," [German Chancellor] Schroeder told a press conference in Berlin.

 

"The economy overall is unaffected by oil prices at this high level. That suggests retail oil demand will continue to be healthy," said Tony Nunan, manager at Mitsubishi Corp.

 

Oil - the economic lubricant

 

Wow ... maybe crude will go to $100, and we can enjoy a record boom ... :lol:

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With oil continueing to increase...now at $47/barrel, will the real impact on the economy occur when we actually see the high prices reflected at the pump? Why, really, have we not noticed a high spike in prices at the pump? At $47/barrel, we should have seen prices at the pump increase well over $0.20 a gallon and that has not happened yet?

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yeah but where's the growth potential in GOOG? The exponential growth days of the internet are over. From now on the internet is as subject to real world business pressures as any other business, as Yobob points out. Now if GOOG paid a decent dividend, maybe you could value it's cash flows and see what a fair price was. I doubt they are planning on paying a healthy dividend anytime soon, so they will be priced on "growth". Funny how my and the street's idea of growth has differed widely for a long time.

This is an interesting point. My question is - how many stocks today are being priced on "growth" potential? As pointed out by many on this site and others - there are some-many thousands of hedge funds not to mention mutual funds active in the market. There isn't enough growth in the universe to feed that beast.

 

Prices today are based on the dip and the rally. The participants in the market place buy the dips and sell the rallys because they have found that that is the way to make money on a consistent basis. The easiest thing in the world is to write a computer program that buys dips and sells rallys. As long as liquidity exists the market will move in one direction or another at all times.

 

I haven't done any research on it but given that 50 - 55% of NYSE trades are program trades and 35 - 45% are short sales then the concept comes clear. It is a whirlwind of buying and selling with no real reason or purpose except to trade. The end objective is to scalp a few points several million times a day.

 

The "gentleman's" market where valuation were based on present values of future expectations are gone my friends. Buy and hold is for suckers (and there are a lot of those too).

 

The only way a small invester can survive is to attempt to scalp with da boyz and hope for the best.

 

Disclaimer - I no longer play the stock market - I play 4X exclusively and that is a scalper's paradise.

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Gurgle adjusts pricing range to $85-95 from $108-135. Good company or not this values the company at more than GM which still holds 25% market share of the global vehicle market, also has several financial businesses and has between 14-16x gurgles revenues. This value is still well below YHOO valuation.

 

That is simply ridiculous. I am no fan of GM, but at the end of the day they are protected by huge barriers to entry and have a large asset base that has tangible value. Under the appropriate mgmt GM could produce decent vehicles and grow their business.

 

Google is a well managed company. But the revenue stream is dubious at best. This ipo is simply a way to cash out the employees who have an average basis of $0.30. Good for google bad for anyone buying this ipo. If stock issued as late as this year was worth $0.30 to google why would anyone value this company at $85.

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Guest yobob1
With oil continueing to increase...now at $47/barrel, will the real impact on the economy occur when we actually see the high prices reflected at the pump? Why, really, have we not noticed a high spike in prices at the pump? At $47/barrel, we should have seen prices at the pump increase well over $0.20 a gallon and that has not happened yet?

Personally I think tremendous political pressure has been brought to bear from someone inside this administration with close ties to the oil industry, though those individuals might be hard to ferret out. :P

 

I'm guessing that the refiners margins are dropping rapidly and they won't be able to hold this pump price much longer as the tankers of more expensive oil begin to arrive. Gas in our area just ticked up a couple of pennies this week.

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Guest yobob1
Gurgle adjusts pricing range to $85-95 from $108-135. Good company or not this values the company at more than GM which still holds 25% market share of the global vehicle market, also has several financial businesses and has between 14-16x gurgles revenues. This value is still well below YHOO valuation.

 

That is simply ridiculous. I am no fan of GM, but at the end of the day they are protected by huge barriers to entry and have a large asset base that has tangible value. Under the appropriate mgmt GM could produce decent vehicles and grow their business.

 

Google is a well managed company. But the revenue stream is dubious at best. This ipo is simply a way to cash out the employees who have an average basis of $0.30. Good for google bad for anyone buying this ipo. If stock issued as late as this year was worth $0.30 to google why would anyone value this company at $85.

GM could be a good company if they went BK and dumped their debt, finance related liabilities and pension plans. But then so could Ford, GE and IBM.

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Machine-- all well reasoned points as always, and I hope you are right. My thought about Google is just along the lines of "Never underestimate the stupidity of the masses." :lol:

 

yobob- I agree about advertising. I experimented with it briefly on Google and saw no benefit. The best advertising, and the only kind that really works in my view, is unsolicited word of mouth. Now go out and spread the Stool. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Doc,

"Unsolicited word of mouth is the best advertising."

RIGHT ON!

Our business (individual investment management) has grown entirely due to favorable word of mouth; our advertising consists primarily of taking out sponsorships in local Little Leagues! Maybe some future Alex Rodriguez will let us manage his money! :D

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!

 

 

Besides if it's becoming a buzzword once again, that should warn you that the trend has abouit peaked.

I wouldn't be to sure of that, in the 70's stagfltion was in the news for a long time and it was happening. Just because it hit the news doesn't mean it won't continue for a long time. Stagflation means higher prices and stagnent wages.

 

the matrix must prepare the sheep for the future, so the news may just keep reporting on stagflation.

 

NE

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They want Google to be crushed - or to go back to the drawing board and come out under Goldman's name. We are witness to a smear campaign - and even the SEC is playing along.

You just know the BIG BOYZ are lobbying the SEC to put the kibosh on the GOOG offering.

 

GOOG muddies the waters for the IPOs 'they' want to do.

 

Maybe it's time for a grand "flush and reset."

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They want Google to be crushed - or to go back to the drawing board and come out under Goldman's name.  We are witness to a smear campaign - and even the SEC is playing along.

You just know the BIG BOYZ are lobbying the SEC to put the kibosh on the GOOG offering.

 

GOOG muddies the waters for the IPOs 'they' want to do.

 

Maybe it's time for a grand "flush and reset."

It's a double edged sword. They (wall street) need goog to revitalize the internet sector. There are dozens of ipos spooled up but unable to price. A succesful goog ipo would bring lots of supply and big commissions.

 

At the same time they want goog to feel some pain. CSFB is pushing the stock but they don't have to support it should it go into freefall the first day. Best of both worlds for them.

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Guest yobob1

!

 

 

Besides if it's becoming a buzzword once again, that should warn you that the trend has abouit peaked.

I wouldn't be to sure of that, in the 70's stagfltion was in the news for a long time and it was happening. Just because it hit the news doesn't mean it won't continue for a long time. Stagflation means higher prices and stagnent wages.

 

the matrix must prepare the sheep for the future, so the news may just keep reporting on stagflation.

 

NE

Sorry I disagree. Stagflation implies price inflation with a stagnant economy; i.e. no growth in real terms. Higher prices without commensurate rises in incomes reduces demand partciularly in an economy where the personal savings rate is already at historic lows (1.2% vs. norm of about 8% in the US) and personal debt levels are at or near record highs in virtually any metric. To me this kind of situation is self correcting in that a reduced demand coupled with low cap ute and current over production as evidenced by rising inventories of late will lead to lower prices. The poster child for this effect is the auto industry

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