mirac Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 Robert Blumen's article "Debt and Delusion" will repay a careful reading. He outlines the logic of Peter Warburton's book of the same name, subtitled Central Bank Follies That Threaten Economic Disaster. Debt and Delusion Agreed MH: Thought it was an important article when I read it last night. The only thing that wasn't mentioned was the power of the financial community and their collusion with regards to the bond markets and their acceptance of government figures. When Citibank and the others started to buy financial assets, banks, brokerages, insurance companies-combined they become a formitable and opposite force of sound economic policy or expected market reactions. Are there enough private bond vigilantes? In a 'real bond world' the natural raise in long term interest rates when obvious inflationary pressures build which act to mitigate rampant speculation in different asset classes. Hell-we don't have any threatening 'real inflation' according to the fed. Only the 'core rate' matters! There is no doubt in my mind 'banking conglomerates' will eventually be creamed, and my feeling is that the problems will initially come out of Japan and their selling of US and Canadian bonds. Not "if" but "when"! I am still a 'deflationist' but the boyz are sure trying to inflate. At the moment it looks like it isn't working. Were the recent soft economic numbers just a soft patch/inventory adjustment, or something worse? The market wants to believe Greenspan, which begs the question "Would you buy a used car from that man?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 There is no doubt in my mind 'banking conglomerates' will eventually be creamed ... Freddie Mac floats into the clouds on balmy blasts of official hot air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 Soft Patch My Ass... Acceleration of the economy was a trend, and deceleration of the economy is a trend. Once the stimulus that caused the acceleration was no longer effective, the natural forces of deceleration from the bubble of 2000 resumed. The REAL data tell the story, and show a consistent trend toward continuing deceleration. There is no logical reason to postulate the deceleration will stop and reverse into acceleration...aside from wishful thinking. Last night, even Cramer was admitting defeat: He stated that he was mostly in cash, that the stimulus SHOULD HAVE created many more jobs at this stage of the recovery than it has, and that "IT DIDN'T WORK." Welcome to the point of recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 The fact that Cramer is now bearish is not a good sign. He's usually the last one to know. Got bullish on gold right at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 I am still a 'deflationist' but the boyz are sure trying to inflate. At the moment it looks like it isn't working. Were the recent soft economic numbers just a soft patch/inventory adjustment, or something worse? The market wants to believe Greenspan, which begs the question "Would you buy a used car from that man?" The products Greenspan sells, are U.S dollars and bonds. You sound like his best customer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 The fact that Cramer is now bearish is not a good sign. He's usually the last one to know. Got bullish on gold right at the top. This makes Kitty scared ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 Aladdin weekly log chart: Made 62 retrace of downmove from ATH, falls out of uptrendchannel, tries to reestablsih the channel, fails, dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 note: a close below the 50 weekly sma is needed to get that Aladdin thing really going to the downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 The fact that Cramer is now bearish is not a good sign. He's usually the last one to know. Got bullish on gold right at the top. Cramer's bias is, "never bet against America". This causes him to be slow to become bearish on U.S. stocks, and even slower to buy gold. If, Cramer's past performance is a guarantee of future perfomance, this downside move in stocks could still have further to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 Kitty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 Kitty Let's send Kitty over to have a little chat with Al...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 note: a close below the 50 weekly sma is needed to get that Aladdin thing really going to the downside. Foxxy-- Beautiful charts, they make me want to eat some salmons myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 Robert Blumen's article "Debt and Delusion" will repay a careful reading. He outlines the logic of Peter Warburton's book of the same name, subtitled Central Bank Follies That Threaten Economic Disaster. Debt and Delusion That is indeed a great article that rationalizes how insanity has managed to prevail so long. Very humbly I would add that imo Rubin's contibution by jacking up the value of the dollar which squeezed production overseas while preserving consumption at home, allowed the inherent pressures of unseen inflation to be bled off. Hence, stoolies agonizing over "how can this all hold together for so long?" have an answer. The only result is the monster is bigger by never being slain. As has previously been expressed, the scheme really can be pushed out infinitely if overseas dollarholders are willing to hold greater and greater quantites of dollars. As MH and Bill Gross at Pimco have bemoaned, "where are the vigilantes?"........ well they died and were replaced by computers and corporate finance, neither of which have scruples. It takes a human - vigilante - to have scruples. As I have said before, capitalism requires a moral foundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 The fact that Cramer is now bearish is not a good sign. He's usually the last one to know. Got bullish on gold right at the top. Cramer does tend to get super bullish right at the top, and super bearish right at the bottom. That said, have you heard anybody in the main stream noting that if there really was a recovery, there should be MILLIONS MORE JOBS. When Maria takes note of the "jobless recovery" that maybe isn't a recovery after all, I will sell options on my second kidney and use the proceeds to go SUPER DUPER LONG ON 100 TO 1 MARGIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted August 14, 2004 Report Share Posted August 14, 2004 As has previously been expressed, the scheme really can be pushed out infinitely if overseas dollarholders are willing to hold greater and greater quantites of dollars. Foreign central banks understand the "game". They are issuing more worthless paper, to buy the increasing issuance of worthless U.S. paper. What matters is the relative percentage of the U.S economy that they own, and that their populations continue to believe fiat currencies have value. The game continues, until it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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