wndysrf Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 After the whopping trade deficit came out, all I heard on Bloomberg was the myriad assortment of excuses from the shills and the talking heads about why "trade deficits don't matter"..... Snowman was first. He says "the U.S. Economy is growing faster than the rest of the world, everyone else needs to catch up" Another shill money manager is next: We are exporting lots of goods. But we are importing even more, because of the "resilient consumer"...... Then another Carnival Barker who was some type of economics expert said that "the bond markets don't care, borrowing capacity is plentiful, trade deficits have been a problem for years, it's never a problem"........... Then some bald headed Fumble Manager with something like "$3.2 billion under management" was yapping about how foreign Central Bankers continue to have a ravenous appetite for U.S. dollars, and they will continue to float us indefinite credit into perpetuity. Then he said that the "deficits don't matter" and said that investors should focus on the "Fed Model" which says that "stocks are cheap", etc. etc. In the meantime, unlimited amounts of Promise Tickets are floated with ease. One of the biggest corporate bond issuance days this week, with investors lapping up this paper like it was chocolate-flavored toilet paper. And the T-Bone auction went off without a hitch, with "external buyers" magically appearing out of nowhere to lap up this paper. Nobody could identify the "foreign central banker" who was taking on this paper, since Japan appears to be tapped out and China already has its hands full. It didn't matter. The only thing that mattered was that buyers emerged out of the woodwork, so interest rates remain low, bond liquidity is the highest of all time, and consumer borrowing capacity and the speed of the Structured Finance Machine is still redlined into the Outer Limits. Funny how the stock market is selling off, yet the credit markets are unfazed. HedgeFunds attempting to gun various currencies and commodities continue to get shanked and whipsawed, but so far, no losses or blowups evident. As usual, stock speculators remain infatuated with the SOX, and virtually every dip was bought today. If the buys didn't stick, then they withdrew and tried again on the next leg down. Finally, at the end of the day, the SMH volume exploded to the upside, as 4500 HedgeFunds were busily voice chatting with the 4500 HedgeFunds, each looking over their shoulders to see what the other guy was doing, and once everyone was gunning the SOX, the Wildebeast Herd finally got moving............ The most important activity contributing to the Global GDP is finding and catching the turn on the SOX. Nothing is more crucial. Why is that? Because nobody wants to miss the next 150% Straight Line Move off the lows like we had in October 1998, where fortunes of paper profits can be had within weeks. The HedgeFund Economy lives. Despite a collapsing dollar. Despite an overabundance of paper. Despite $46.65 crude. Despite Angry Arabs roaming the Earth. Nothing fazes the Speculators.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ags Nightmare Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 Well done Wndy...add to your list the fact that Fort Meyers is being leveled as I write this,,, Some guy on earlier said there were friggin surfers out there today that got blown up shore and had to be resuced and another guy who is staying in his boat and if it gets blown up the river, he'll just go out to sea and drop anchor ... Those nutcases are symptomatic of the disbelieving and thrill seeking society we live in today from gambling hedge hogs to Jamdis fumble managers to IBD mo mo junkies to hurricanes doubters to thrill seeking debt accumulators with LTV loans at 125 %...doesn't matter..people feel invincable...even in catagory 4's... Take a look at ALL's chart over the weekend....huge boner with a H&S on the weekly... Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 Robert Blumen's article "Debt and Delusion" will repay a careful reading. He outlines the logic of Peter Warburton's book of the same name, subtitled Central Bank Follies That Threaten Economic Disaster. Debt and Delusion The central thesis: during the past twenty years, there has been enormous inflation. However, it has been confined to asset inflation (stocks, bonds, and real estate). The distorted CPI and PPI measures (particularly with food and energy stripped out) pick up nothing but "price stability." Warburton points out that before the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the average shape of the yield curve was flat. On average, there was no premium for lending long instead of short. The persistence of a steep yield curve for years at a time is indicative of the fire hose of carry trade liquidity that the central bank is artificially injecting into asset prices. Now that foreigners have been sucked into financing America's $600 billion current account deficit, what we have is a worldwide government-sponsored Ponzi scheme, supporting monstrously overvalued, artificially-priced asset markets. This can only end in tears. Only a massive floating supply of monopoly bubble money could have driven up oil prices by $20 a barrel in six months. This is more a function of dollars losing purchasing power, than of oil suddenly getting scarce. The dollar remains the key to the asset bubble ... the fuel that nourishes and expands it. Uncle Buck cracked drastically from 89 to below 88 on the $56 billion trade deficit. Under 87 would be a multi-month low. Ultimately, the U.S. Ponzi scheme ends like every previous Third World crack-up: with a currency crisis, a debt default, and a drastic rise in domestic prices. The "shop till you drop" set doesn't suddenly get thrifty. Instead, they are simply priced out of the market. That's the way the cookie crumbles ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 I'll tell you something. You guys write the best instant analysis, anywhere, anytime, on anything. You have my greatest respect and admiration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 To those of you reading this, you should not try this at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 Gang of 23 Bets on Lower Yields As Al Tightens The Screws Fed Update is now posted! Know what Al and his crew are up to, and how it's likely to affect the markets. Take a subscribatory and download your daily Fed Report. 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 jickiss is back! and Hello to Marky Mark and to Stoolville and to Mr. Sinclair: Little Voice: "jickiss, what is that thingy on the right in the chart???? what is it??" jickiss: "That is a White Candlestick...it's just a small one, though." Little Voice: "Oh, that's nice, what are white candlesticks good for??" jickiss: "nothing, untill they get Real BIG." Little Voice: "oh, then what, what is a BIG ONE for???" jickiss: "well, when we get a REAL BIG ONE, we will mail it to Mr. Prechter." Little Voice: "and what we we say, what will we write on the Card??" jickiss: "we will say: dear Bob, avoid the hot end, please!" Little Voice: "but will he get it????" jickiss: "with Stoolville mining acres of diamonds, who cares?????" HOLD FAST. $433.33, here we come!!!! jickiss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 MARK AND I HEARD A DOZEN RATIONALES today about how high oil prices don't matter- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 13, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 jickiss.... Some nice moves today. BGO up 12%. SSRI up decent, heard the short interest is astronomical on that one............ NEM and AU traded like dogs, though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 MARK AND I HEARD A DOZEN RATIONALES today about how high oil prices don't matter- Well, I saw on Fox News (yes, it's deeply shameful, but I was only channel surfing, not WATCHING it or anything) that Newt Gingrich is gonna host a show called "America Over a Barrel." In other words, enough stuffed-shirt poseur know-nothings are getting worked up about oil prices that it may put a lid on them ... but not quite yet. We need a "strong buy recommendation" from Crapvision, and I mean somebody more important than "Ray in the oil pit" who flipflops like a flag on a pole. What famous anal-cyst will step up to the plate with a "strong buy" reco on Crude Earl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 I gotta have a few dozens beers now. As a special because of the start of the olympic games I offer you this weekend only here at M2M: "Foxy's olympic chart marathon": you can request a daily or weekly chart of whatever stock, index or currency you want. Just write the symbol and then i will make chart, starting tomorrow. Live is give and take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Poopercycle Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 To those of you reading this, you should not try this at home. How 'bout at work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 jickiss is back! and Dear Marky Mark: as "Stoolville Expects" you, sir, nailed it again. And, as the ever prescient Machine Head said, here, a few daze ago, "The 10-Year is a Zombie." as long as the 10-Year trades sideways to up, (in price), there is still no "F" Factor, no Fear Factor. but, HRFF said that something will come out of the Blue.... hmmm. in re NEM, well, 1. it is the weekend, so why buy on friday? 2. many fumbles think, hell, we have seen $400 gold before, it always falls back. 3. so, therefore, fumbles say: show us gold above 400 for 3 days, and we will take that jickiss more seriously! for sure, 400 gold is a Big Psychological level. but the 10- Year, when it finally drops, will be a Bigger Psychological LEVELER! regards to all! jickiss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 Great article MH and insight. I wondered what had happened to the infamous "Bond Vigilantes".Your link clarifies! "Some commentators reason that inflation must now be quite low because the credit markets are patrolled by "bond vigilantes," astute traders ever alert to punish central banks for their inflationary indiscretions, ready to dispense rough justice in the form of higher interest rates. This analysis assumes that inflation is reflected primarily in consumption goods, and that bond yields are free to move on their own to convey meaningful information about changes in the value of the monetary unit. These assumptions are more or less the reverse of reality: the funneling of inflation into bonds as described above provides a floor under bond prices and hence a ceiling on bond yields. The bond vigilantes have gone on an extended vacation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Poopercycle Posted August 13, 2004 Report Share Posted August 13, 2004 MARK AND I HEARD A DOZEN RATIONALES today about how high oil prices don't matter- Well, I saw on Fox News (yes, it's deeply shameful, but I was only channel surfing, not WATCHING it or anything) that Newt Gingrich is gonna host a show called "America Over a Barrel." In other words, enough stuffed-shirt poseur know-nothings are getting worked up about oil prices that it may put a lid on them ... but not quite yet. We need a "strong buy recommendation" from Crapvision, and I mean somebody more important than "Ray in the oil pit" who flipflops like a flag on a pole. What famous anal-cyst will step up to the plate with a "strong buy" reco on Crude Earl? Harry Blotchy? Mary Murky? Dear Abby? Dick Hoooey? Joe Fattapiglia? Ned 'da Greasehead? Dr Bob Cueball? Or the biggest fade of all..... Larry KurleyMoe and Tweaker Cramer? "A bool market in real assets indicates high confidence in the underlying resilience of the strong American economy fueled by the naturally juicy entreprenial juices of animal spirits and committed consumerisms, grown to fruition by the enlightened and courageous genius leadership of President Pretzle and The Dick." "So buy oil futures." "And soybeans. Whatever they are." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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