brian4 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Old Habits-the Joe Sixpacks of the world are in hock for more than their net worth -take their job away and it's curtains-most of the money in bonds like stocks is fund money as the Sixpacks lose their jobs they will in an effort to stay afloat liquidate stocks, bonds, cars, houses anything they can get there hands on-need I say more. Now the wealthy gold and T bills i would suggest! trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 after careful analysis of all your opinions and charts,I can come to only one conclusion..... the market is going up tomorrow,unless of course it goes down. I think i'm dizzy and need a few xanax....the hankster p.s......in cash waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hemroid2 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 so many joe sixpack mutual fund holders are under water and probably would like dow 10k to liquidate....might be wrong but i bet there is quite some overhead resistance up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Slinger: There is a big gap in your chart that has to be filled. After nudging the tops will it drop and fill it, soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 I think we're headed up tomorrow, unfortunately. This link sums up my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 The only thing bullish about this market is Prechter saying it's going to zero (or thereabouts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 I think we're headed up tomorrow, unfortunately. This link sums up my thinking. Thanks, slinger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 So, I took half the money in a Vanguard SP500 fund and bought gold and mines in a USAA mutual fund, like I said I had to do. This way I can be half right and half wrong at the same time. My Principle Hemorrhage Group 401k must know that I'm familiar with stool logic, cause every time I try to move money around in the 401k, the site is either down or the repositioning is a day late. Something strange going on there like they use the money to wipe their asses before they will let go of it. Still I have almost recovered all my (lost)principle and the matching funds. Oh, boy. I think I'll take all the money out of the SP 500 fund tommorrow and set it aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 10, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 The more charts I check, the more I'm convinced that we will be going up for awhile. Unlike the last rally top in January 2002, where we were rolling over on a domed top, too many stocks here look like they are doing strong ABC up moves. Too many stocks like EBAY and VIP are making new highs. More Long Ideas: QCOM is on the brink of a MACD crossover, nice bull flag. Probably a safe buy here. KO and HD look quiet, but looks like it should explode upward any time. Just put a stop right under the lows. Lots of good picks out there. I'll post more as I find them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 a groping we shall go... ALN LOOK CLDN WGRD CUB MEDW NTAP XLNX If you can't beat em, join em. Like Merciless says "be nimble" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Mark, For what I need, a BPI of the SOX is a great idea. I've never seen one. I left a query for Vesselin on his board asking if he knew where one might be and have been looking a little via Google but, have not found one. At least not on a free site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 People are just plain tired of the 3 year bear market, and want this baby to go up, and will put their money where their mouth/a.hole is. I am tired of paying my bills, so I will change my name and address. I am tired of my wife, therefore I will buy another one. Fatigue heralds the denoument of the siege, which is what this market has been under. AKA, the "last hurrah", "I'm sick and tired of this and I will do something about it". Releasing pent-up "demand" is not bullish when all signs point to over-capacity and a deflationary environment. We may go up a while, still holding SPX calls/Dell puts/ rest cash. But at the end of this ride, look out below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 It sure is tough being a Bear when the Bulls are stampeding...I am having nightmares of Kudlow and Navellier rambling that Dow 36,000 is going to happen this year. However, I do want to point out that the S&P 500 has been in a trading range for months. Hanging around a 935 ish top and a 880 ish bottom. Also, the VIX is in the 26's. I am still waiting to see it get down in to the low 20's which it has not done. Everytime we are in danger of the VIX tanking in to the low 20's, the market sells off again. I hate to sound like a broken record, but, Doug Noland reported home prices DOWN. "New Home Sales came in at a record rate of 1.069 million (up 14% y-o-y). Interestingly, however, we see that the national median price dropped $11,600 to $167.300, the lowest in 14 months. In a sign of a slowdown at the upper-end, the median New Homes price is down $23,300 since June." Also, I know Greenspan would LOVE to keep the re-financing binge going but people are getting charged fees on these refinancings that IMHO increase the cost of the loan significantly. One such case in an Arizona newspaper reported that a lady with good credit was going to be charged $6000 dollars in fees to borrow 100,000 dollars to pay off debt. $ 1,000 Loan Origination Fee $ 1,000 Loan Discount Fee $ 350 Appraisal Fee $75 Credit Report Fee $475 Underwriting Fee $450 Document Preparation Fee $750 Inspection Fee $500 Endorsement Fee And other miscellaneous fees. When will Joe Sixpack realize he is getting duped in to re-financing every 6-12 months and being fee'd to death! Low interest rate or not, this is ridiculous. This is the kind of crap that Alan Greenspan is advocating. Re-financing constantly to keep the Giant Casino Cash Machine going. Fee people to DEATH! First, how can anyone gain by re-financing constantly. They will NEVER pay the house off and always owe at least what it is worth. Second, fees like this have the effect of INCREASING the interest rate when they are added in to the total cost of the loan. Now, add in that the consumer is doing this on a regular basis and you get a situation where people are not getting ahead at all. In fact, with interest rates at a hypothetical bottom, Americans are now increasing their monthly payments in a wage deflationary environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 You got it figured right Martial! Futures have been eroding past hour both SPX and Nazquack over 5 points below fair value-HMMMMMM! Trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 It's okay, all the charts say up so I'd better sell. Before I tripped on this board, I bought a few AMD shares at their lows of $3.50 or so one morning before going to work. My Dad, who by the way could suck up pennies with his butt, would never buy such a stock. If he did, would have them eaten up by mold before he ever cashed them in. Me, I watched them go to around $9 then down to below $6. I know now I should have played the bounces. And bounce around they do while competing against Intel's marketing machine. As a matter of fact if the secretary at AMD's front desk died, their stock would dive for 3 weeks as Intel would spin the news that she took all the passwords to her grave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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