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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell Weak-end Den July 22-24

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TE what do you think about this 2 year SP chart? Looks like if we don't get a bounce from around here we go down to 950-1000 fairly soon. Potential triple bottom around here. However I ain't buying and holdin'. :blink:

I have heard people call that pattern an inverse H&S. I doubt it. Listen, I am bearish and see 987 before the end of summer but I see a bounce coming. If I miss a few points on the down side so be it.

 

Look at it this way, Every time we came to the edge of the abyss, the market has come back.

 

The side that says we collapse from here have valid arguements.

 

1) the 50 crossed the 150.

 

2) too much complacency still

 

3) all the small and mid caps I follow have droped HUGE the last three weeks, Reminds me of Jan or March 2000.

 

4) I covered my spx puts.

 

Regarding going down to 950 now. I doubt that highly but, If it should happen, I will buy that.

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Also the 45 day cycle is way late for a bottom. That is definetly bearish. (longer term) Maybe short term as well. Hell if I knew or any of us knew whould we be here. I would have my own Island getting my tie stroked.

 

(by my wife of course).

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Nobody can ever know but this place is a great place for someone like me to learn a little. Thanks to all the input from the excellent traders who put it out there each day for all to see. Thanks. :grin:

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Nobody can ever know but this place is a great place for someone like me to learn a little. Thanks to all the input from the excellent traders who put it out there each day for all to see. Thanks. :grin:

I learn from you TFH. Keep on keepin on.

 

The way I look at this whole situation is that if there is still a market and we bottom at 4,000 or so, The ones who lost the least win. If we are at Armageddon then what the hockey puck. It won't matter. No Fear, no greed, NO emotion.

 

(I did not capitalize the n in no greed on purpose).

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TE what do you think about this 2 year SP chart? Looks like if we don't get a bounce from around here we go down to 950-1000 fairly soon. Potential triple bottom around here. However I ain't buying and holdin'. :blink:

tfh,

 

That chart reminds of the discussion today over lunch with a TA friend.

 

We are appraoching the point of a 50 200 dma crossover. This has been

a reliable indicator for going low or short over the longer time frame (months)

in this market.

 

This top reminds me of an echo of the all time high on the S&P. Rounding top

with low fear. The selling lately is getting a familiar look to it.

 

If we get crossover, I would assert it is time to be long term short.

The cyclical phase for it is approaching.

 

SEH

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TE what do you think about this 2 year SP chart? Looks like if we don't get a bounce from around here we go down to 950-1000 fairly soon. Potential triple bottom around here. However I ain't buying and holdin'. :blink:

tfh,

 

That chart reminds of the discussion today over lunch with a TA friend.

 

We are appraoching the point of a 50 200 dma crossover. This has been

a reliable indicator for going low or short over the longer time frame (months)

in this market.

 

This top reminds me of an echo of the all time high on the S&P. Rounding top

with low fear. The selling lately is getting a familiar look to it.

 

If we get crossover, I would assert it is time to be long term short.

The cyclical phase for it is approaching.

 

SEH

3) all the small and mid caps I follow have droped HUGE the last three weeks, Reminds me of Jan or March 2000.

 

 

Good to see ya SEH.

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Miners are not safe from the possible serious tankage ahead. No volume on the upmove. Fundies must be selling the heck out of this one. Complacency in the precious metals sector too. Most are looking for a low volume retest of the lows or slightly higher lows. How about 120 in the HUI?

post-20-1090646200_thumb.png

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Dines is still bullish. He has always been bullish the PM's. Neely, for all his nuttyness calls for 200 on gold over the next few years. Kennedy Gammage has called a nine year cycle TOP. Deflation anyone. There won't be a safe haven. Save a declining Doo-lar.

 

The rational between a $ decline and rising gold prices will be deminished greatly should we see a deflation. VERY few are prepared for that. A true bear, I mean a bear with FANGS and CLAWS seven inches long will rip us all to shreads if we don't comply. The only question is when he/she will break out of hibernation. I think he/she has awoke but is disoriented and questioning whether he/she is on Mars or Venus. If She finds herself on Venus. We are screwed.

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Plunger wrote:

 

All of this administration BULLSHIT about american workers not being skilled enough for the jobs available really pisses me off. It's a total lie. Blame the citizenship for the failures of the Fed. It's so criminal.

 

Talk to the MBAs, Engineers, Computer Programmers, E-Marketing experts etc. about that. Some of the best and brightest people in America are no longer able to work at the jobs that they ALREADY TRAINED FOR AND EXCEL AT LIKE NO OTHER PEOPLE ON EARTH.

 

This also applied to "job retraining". A few months ago in the LA Times I read an anal cyst who said that Americans should retrain for the "biotech sector".

 

There is a huge problem with this statement.. principly being that biotech and drug research require advanced degrees in biology, chemistry, and related fields. When I worked for a biotech as an IT droid the people doing research were all PhDs. If you only had a master's degree you did what the PhD's told you to.

 

If you went to school to be a lawyer, financial person, management, IT, or anything else, you'll find retraining in this field to be next to impossible. Getting a PhD is easily ten years of continuous schooling and research, for very little money. If you are 40 or 50 years old, with a family and a mortgage, I think it would be impossible to do. Not to mention that you have to be very smart to brilliant to begin with, and you will be competing with people half your age.

 

The last bastion of people seeking career transition was Information Technology. It was supposed to be the fastest growing career field. Now university enrollment in IT programs is falling to below 1995 levels. If another country begins to pump out scientists and create a medical industry with less regulation than the FDA generates, then our biotechs will be in trouble. The Russians and the Chinese aren't sitting around, they have more poeple in their educational systems training for this kind of stuff.

 

During my last layoff period I thought about what I could "retrain" for in a reasonable amount of time, and still be able to survive. I'm a little too old now for a long science degree, and I wouldn't be able to make it into medical school against the asian kids with perfect grades and unlimited study time. There seem to be plenty of lawyers and financial people out there. There aren't a lot of options.

 

How many people picked a career field, became great at it, then found it was all a waste of time when their field was outsourced or became clogged with people and the herd flocked to the field?

 

Sustainability is the challenge.

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Prechter changed his count months and months ago to Grand supercycle degree wave 3 ended at the 2000 high. Is it possible that he was wrong again and that was wave 5. If that is true, Then we have peaked in our technology age. Meaning we shall slow down considerably and begin to realize that LIFE and LIVING is more important then what color cell phone we carry around.

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Prechter changed his count ... Meaning we shall slow down considerably and begin to realize that LIFE and LIVING is more important then what color cell phone we carry around.

"Life without a cell phone is not worth living" - my older daughter (after I placed restrictions on her usage following a $300 minute overage last month)

 

I love listening to Prechter, for entertainment purposes.

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This also applied to "job retraining". A few months ago in the LA Times I read an anal cyst who said that Americans should retrain for the "biotech sector".

Great post; perfect description of the Matrix Smoke Screen Mantra. If you've lived through the various competition scares over the years (some may even remember that at one time, the Soviets had a "superior" system), it all reaks of same old - same old...

 

What America needs is "work ethic retraining" - given optimal capital resources and infrastucture, even the gene pool of Zimbabwe could rise to the occasion to become the leading edge in whatever field you select...the difference, across all cultures, is the work ethic. It is complex, and far more than just an individual with initiative. It requires respect for property rights, incentive for marginal returns, and a thousand other things outside of individual control. It is a social attribute of a society which, in the US case, is broken.

 

Neither the Dems or the Reps have the formula right, and thus it will fail. It probably can't be rebuilt with the current generational mix. China appears to have the best mix to develop the appropriate work ethic to become the flagship 21st century society.

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