Jimi Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 AG: I joined you on apoolo 13 today. Totally a crap shoot and very small size. THe stock could be at 20 or 125 for all I know, but hey, what the hell? I got my fingers burned on that POS last month. Thought I'd be a 2-2 top-calling genius like I was with TASR the month before. Instead, I surrendered back some of my hard-won TASR profits! I trade the markets in small fashion to amuse myself... and with the idea that if I do it for the next 20 years in small fashion, I'll learn something useful for eventual retirement. I think most people open a trading account anxious to make an immediate fortune, and then promptly blowup their account. I'm just slowly trying to learn something useful from my daily obsession. Uhh... not sure if I am or am not learning anything.... Jimi Are you familiar with the Niederhoffer / Taleb controversey about randomization and Sigma 10 events---I dont know how to post the article in the New Yorker but I suppose a google search would suffice-- Taleb a former employee of niederhoffer is of the opinin(if I understand him coerrectly) that there are more crashes in markets than ordinary people would like to think while his most formidable intellectualopponent N.. is of an opposite opinion-- Niederhoffer has made and lost hundreds of millions selling puts by the bushel and so confident in the outcomes was he that he persisted in them until one long slide (1987?) wiped him out Taleb keeps losing money on puts but a little bit ata time believing in the statistical premonition that its almost a certainty that a Sigma event of some significance must and will take place thus recouping all of his losing bets plus more than enough to put him on easy street I understand Taleb to be saying that Sigma four five six...ten events happen more than people think but these these outliers are to most theoriticians in probability so formiidibaly distant from ones ability to discern that professionals disregard them entirely And in so doing put themselves in harms way:perhaps resulting total destruction beardrech :cry: --BD why dont you play th lotto?? ---------Because its the only game in town where you have justas much of a c chance of winning even if you dont play Beardrech, good man, I am familiar. Niederhoffer didn't blow up in 1987: he actually was long the Thai Baht in Fall 1997, when East Asian economies blew up, and then was selling S&P puts into Greenspan's emergency rate cut a month or so later. Published reports suggest his missteps cost him/his investors ~$300,000,000. Taleb's book--especially for fans of Knight --is obligatory reading. The New Yorker article's good too. I'm a fan of Taleb over Niederhoffer, even though I've heard that Taleb does not indicate publicly how much money his "fatter tail" strategy has netted. Articles & stuff available here: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Cheney and Rummy knew, as did Korngold, who made a mint shorting the airlines. Bush probably not. obvious reasons Threadbare - Who is Korngold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpark Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Re: silver: I suspect that the powers that be will do what ever they can to stop the rise of precious metals to their proper and historical status as money. Silver today is used as an industrial metal, but I suspect it will some day be very dear. Gold holds some strange fascination too. I wonder if there's some innate interest in this metal, because I gave a gold coin to my toddler to play with, and he was truly fascinated by that coin, until he decided that the hot air vent was the proper place for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 AMAT DOWN TO $17 This market is breaking down not up. NBC's highest-rated shows last season were The Apprentice, Fear Factor and Average Joe. They even pull decent numbers for My Big Fat Obnoxious Fianc?, Who Wants to Marry My Dad?, For Love or Money and Last Comic Standing. Heaven help us." Brisbane Reality shows are all about escaping from reality. They sell the false hope that we can all be celebrities sans talent "except" for IDOL shows where you have to have talent to win. Big cash prizes are turning them into loteries - part of the gambling culture. I agree they can be compulsive veiwing. What sells them to the public is that they are a democratisation of the CELEBRITY CULTURE eg you can be a celebrity too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirac Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 beardrech :BD why dont you play th lotto??---------Because its the only game in town where you have justas much of a chance of winning even if you dont play I admit to buying lottery tickets- there's always that 1 chance in a bazillion. And it's a lot of hope for a dollar- cheaper than a psychiatrist. But... the Lotto649 went from a loonie to a toonie! (1dollar to 2dollar for you unCanadians) LOL Lose a lot less playing the lottery- than the stockmarkets sometimes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Jimi Thanx for the correction,but to someone my age ten years doesn't amout to a hill of beans and is essentially equivalent to a pimple on the ass of the universe --Im about to dive into your link which as usual will be vey interesting I'm sure beardrech :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Ike with today comment http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5923 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Because its as if the mathematician is looking at a( metaphorical) matchstick before its struck and then comparing it to a 15story building and saying to himself--that puny little match pulling that gigantic building down??Absolutely rediculous-- I apologise for the impoverished metaphor, but i hope you gather my meaning--namely, the very sophistication of the problem warns him that as a professonal he would, if he attempted to solve the problemi, would make him look rediculous in front of his peers-- Wheras we "innocents" are driven by the extrinsic facts of the prevailing madness-- There are just too many intelligent men and woman on and off the stool who recognize the "INSANITY" of current "investment" styles to allow oneself from breing dissuaded from playingthe game as if it were about to explode--as Jackiss says above: there are payofs so favorable,so fabulously above anything one will see in a lifetime that one is compelled to take a chance andi n Jakiss's sense (gold) the play is so obvious one would be foolish not to-- beardrech :cry: beardrech How many fingers do i have up on this on and?? ---eight ----Idiot,Youve been drinking again :if I had eight fingers then how many golf clubs a -----am i holding ??? ----Four ----Now you plupefcct fool how can I & y should I playgolf with four clubs?? ----You streamlined jerk--Look at th eight balls at your feet beardrech, your words are so beautiful that if I could spare the time from my collision course with the sun I would savor them longer. Alas I have no money to pay for them and this time I cannot steal because the guard watches me the way a field mouse watches an elephant. Many of those who recognize the insanity are becoming poorer none-the-less--and even worse--living in apartments like...... matchsticks in a box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ags Nightmare Posted July 15, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Jimi, Regarding Apollo...Sorry you got shanked in that rent a PHD...from a macro standpoint, I think the whole group is a scam... the concept of "honesty" and personal interaction is non exisitant and questionable...you could be playing Playstation Madden Football eating chili with your fingers in your boxers while some hired kid with an Einstein IQ takes your tests....who can prove it ? You could be taking an appendix out with a Burger King IQ.... I don't think it's all clear for the bulls yet but bears may get pole axed a while longer...that thing can blow any day and I'm not throwing in the towel as I have time left on my position.... Also I feel there are differences in this ongoing blowback mania compared to several years ago and the main thing is the existance of "sheeple memory"...there are a lot of scars underneath the surface of even the most avid Schtinky followers and Jimmy Jones Action Alert sock sniffers... As much as a bear remembers the pain and awe of watching a bag of sheet like CORV open at 100 on IPO day, the bulls remember being long a trash heaps like Microstrategy, EMCeeMe..Feel Me...Touch Me.. No Tell...See Bull or Gloworm when they blew up....look at those things now....All in "must own" "spaces" with fully integrated seamless platforms that were going to lead us into the next generation of the internet economy.... Bad memories from on both sides of the fence haunt many participants and the leverage that makes things work is far greater now than it was in 2000 imo...you could shove a lump of coal up a hedge hogs butt and squeeze out a diamond right now craps wound so tight... It's like a tug of war with a greased rope where no one wins and is why I'm just randomly playing around until another deck clearing event takes place...I basically have lost interest and faith in the "odds"...sometimes you feel like the black boxers "know" what side you are then they reach out and grab your berries and twist...other times you knock em out and run away.... This whole year I've spent getting more liquid and care less about trading for various reasons...I just found out I'm gonna be an older dad a couple of weeks ago and we got our first little Ag on the way....Otherwise I feel I've spent a lot of this year just watching coyote's chew their legs off in the traps then run into another one... As for trying to nail a mania stock, it has it's advantages and disadvantages....I used about 1/3 of my Tasr trade to play around with Apollo Creed and could lose but it ain't the end of the world... The bear trade of the year so far has been the semi craps in hindsight which I havn't messed with unfortunately ... By now we have all seen enough charts, read books, seen more moving averages tested than Carters has pills, witnessed countless mania boners and euphoric after hours orgies to know what we are getting into... sometimes you win and sometimes you take on water or just are wrong...sheet happens... Where some say screwing around with flying burrito's like Terminator One is insane, there were poot trades I've had that were 30 points in the money when they were closed on turds and some I lost....It's all how you manage the size of your trades and how many you take on when messing with bealzububs....sometimes the smallest trades work out far better than the bigger ones whether its synthetic shorts or longs or type 1 buys or sells... This ain't been an easy market or world to live in lately and there's a lot more damage yet to come for people who don't deserve it or understand it... I'm like you as I try to learn more as I go but I feel I understand my own limitations far better than several years ago...Maybe my IBD brother in law thinks I'm chicken but he still has an $ 1800 dollar mortgage at 58.... I've never felt I'm that good of a trader but I do feel I understand what's going on.......I wish I were as good as some people who flip stuff on this forum on a daily basis but it's just not in my makeup... I get more out of writing about what I see than actually being a part of it...but deep down I don't want any part of it....at least for now.... Truthfully, I'd rather be long and just forget about stuff for five years....but that day is long way off... I'm outta hear for a few days as we are heading to Ohio tomorrow...be carefull bears cause whenever I leave town, never fails we get a mania day... Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Congratulations AGs! It is a magical journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ags Nightmare Posted July 15, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Congratulations AGs! It is a magical journey. Thanks Francisco... I can't wait...except for the poop, pee and puke.... I told my wife when we go to see my Inlaws this weekend who are way way far to the right politcally.... if we have twins we are gonna name em Bill and Hillary.... Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Congratulations AGs! It is a magical journey. Thanks Francisco... I can't wait...except for the poop, pee and puke.... I told my wife when we go to see my Inlaws this weekend who are way way far to the right politcally.... if we have twins we are gonna name em Bill and Hillary.... Ag Ags congrats. You will wear that puke on your shoulder proudly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 AG:? I joined you on apoolo 13 today.? Totally a crap shoot and very small size.? THe stock could be at 20 or 125 for all I know,? but hey,? what the hell? I got my fingers burned on that POS last month. Thought I'd be a 2-2 top-calling genius like I was with TASR the month before. Instead, I surrendered back some of my hard-won TASR profits! I trade the markets in small fashion to amuse myself... and with the idea that if I do it for the next 20 years in small fashion, I'll learn something useful for eventual retirement. I think most people open a trading account anxious to make an immediate fortune, and then promptly blowup their account. I'm just slowly trying to learn something useful from my daily obsession. Uhh... not sure if I am or am not learning anything.... Jimi Are you familiar with the Niederhoffer / Taleb controversey about randomization and Sigma 10 events---I dont know how to post the article in the New Yorker but I suppose a google search would suffice-- Taleb a former employee of niederhoffer is of the opinin(if I understand him coerrectly) that there are more crashes in markets than ordinary people would like to think while his most formidable intellectualopponent N.. is of an opposite opinion-- Niederhoffer has made and lost hundreds of millions selling puts by the bushel and so confident in the outcomes was he that he persisted in them until one long slide (1987?) wiped him out Taleb keeps losing money on puts but a little bit ata time believing in the statistical premonition that its almost a certainty that a Sigma event of some significance must and will take place thus recouping all of his losing bets plus more than enough to put him on easy street I understand Taleb to be saying that Sigma four five six...ten events happen more than people think but these these outliers are to most theoriticians in probability so formiidibaly distant from ones ability to discern that professionals disregard them entirely And in so doing put themselves in harms way:perhaps resulting total destruction beardrech :cry: --BD why dont you play th lotto?? ---------Because its the only game in town where you have justas much of a c chance of winning even if you dont play I've set out to read Taleb many times, all unsuccessfully. Depending on your timeframe, the market crashes very often or almost never at all. Swinging for the fence with puts hoping to recoup the almost guaranteed losses of being long decaying value (via puts) all the time is akin to speeding on the highway and making pit stops- those 55 mph trucks always seem to come out ahead. I'd prefer to be shorting puts than holding them all the time. But buying them selectively after big up moves can reduce the risk of loss. I admit to buying lottery tickets- there's always that 1 chance in a bazillion. And it's a lot of hope for a dollar- cheaper than a psychiatrist. Fokker did you read Flckensteins most recent column wherein he gives the reader a list of probabilities in terms of sigmas going up to (4.5) ???- Hes currently giving the market a one in five chance of winding up on the concrete like a pile of hairy strawberry ice cream And to give you an idea about the astronomical odds against its occurence: by the the time your ascend in your caculatons to a 4.4 sig-d event its around-a milllion to one-- Now the odds(mathematicall speaking) at this stage are so much against its happening that its almost totally uncongenial to mathematical calculation that are in any ways practical-- So at that point, paradoxically, commonsense or intuition is of greater use than the any advanced mathematical tool Why? Because its as if the mathematician is looking at a( metaphorical) matchstick before its struck and then comparing it to a 15story building and saying to himself--that puny little match pulling that gigantic building down??Absolutely rediculous-- I apologise for the impoverished metaphor, but i hope you gather my meaning--namely, the very sophistication of the problem warns him that as a professonal he would, if he attempted to solve the problemi, would make him look rediculous in front of his peers-- Wheras we "innocents" are driven by the extrinsic facts of the prevailing madness-- There are just too many intelligent men and woman on and off the stool who recognize the "INSANITY" of current "investment" styles to allow oneself from breing dissuaded from playingthe game as if it were about to explode--as Jackiss says above: there are payofs so favorable,so fabulously above anything one will see in a lifetime that one is compelled to take a chance andi n Jakiss's sense (gold) the play is so obvious one would be foolish not to-- beardrech :cry: beardrech How many fingers do i have up on this on and?? ---eight ----Idiot,Youve been drinking again :if I had eight fingers then how many golf clubs a -----am i holding ??? ----Four ----Now you plupefcct fool how can I & y should I playgolf with four clubs?? ----You streamlined jerk--Look at th eight balls at your feet Never thought of it that way. Thx Stooleate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted July 15, 2004 Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Congratulations AGs! It is a magical journey. 2nd the former part of that! (no clue about the latter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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