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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell Thursday July 14

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:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

 

Andy Bryant, Intel's chief financial officer, said the company feels "pretty good" about the quarter. But he admitted that inventories rose "more than I would have liked."

 

In response, Mr. Bryant said, the company has begun to slow the expansion of microprocessor production. "My job is to not ramp the factory quite so hard," he said.

 

The chips are down, and Intel has some explaining to do - like how do hide growing mountains of inventory. Well we told you the next bear downturn would have it's fun moments.

 

Arnold still trying to get his budget passed:

 

Schwarzenegger's Match: Getting a Budget Passed

By JOHN M. BRODER

 

Published: July 14, 2004

 

SACRAMENTO, July 13 - Just a few weeks ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger seemed an irresistible force: propelled by ego and charisma, commanding popular support, able to work his will on a cowed Legislature. But in the California budget process, he has met something close to an immovable object.

 

Two weeks after the constitutional deadline of June 30 for enactment of a state budget and two months after Mr. Schwarzenegger promised to deliver the first on-time budget in years, he and lawmakers are at stalemate over state spending.

 

While a budget deadlock is hardly unusual, and though the state faces no immediate cash crisis, the current standstill is a reminder that even a popular celebrity governor cannot immediately change the political folkways of the California capital.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/14/national...a2hO5UlWpB4+7og

 

Good trading! ;)

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Good Morning HB.

 

Appreciate all you do here...but there is no Thursday, July 14th.

 

I'm just back to Florida after two weeks on the road, so a bit dazed and confused after the time warp back to the past in Grand Rapids, Michigan, but I do believe today is Wednesday.

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I don't know if this was posted in my absence, but...990N further explained:

 

http://www.guerrillanews.com/forum/showthr...y&Number=311381

 

If you look at the emini S&P during periods of narrow movement, you will

see between 1,000 and 2,000 cars at each of the first 5 prices either

side of the last (5 is all the CME transmits). The implication is that it

will take at least 7,500 (assuming an average of 1,500 at each level) to

move the market 5 ticks in any direction.

 

If it were such levels of volume that actually moved the market, I would

have no problem with the sizes that I see at these levels. However, when

the market does move out of these narrow ranges, it does so on very

little or no volume. Typically, those five ticks are covered with less

than 1K cars being traded - often much less.

 

IMO, that is the REAL level of liquidity in this market. The rest of the

size at these prices is all smoke and mirrors. If not, then one would

have to stretch the imagination and believe that 6,500 of these contracts

are all being pulled in unison by as many as 100s if not 1000s of

different traders across the globe all at the same instant. Yes -that

could happen occasionally but this is happening multiple times during the

day - every day. Miraculously, once the move is complete on so few

trades, the thousands of contracts re-appear to once again ?collar' the

market.

 

So, to stretch credulity even further, one would then have to believe

that these same unconnected traders who lifted all those orders in

unison, now put them back on again in equally perfect harmony.

Once the collar is back on, I have seen as many as 100K cars traded over

the next 3,4 hours and the market will spend most of that time in a 5

tick range with very brief excursions outside it (e.g. see 6/21 from

10:30 until 2:00 ET). So a 5 tick range that is traversed easily on [1K

cars is then unable to breakout of a 5 tick range for hours despite ]

100K being traded ??

 

It is far more likely that the market is being controlled and that those

sizes are being placed (and lifted), not by 100s or 1000s of unconnected

traders but by just one or two entities.

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Bumping Along The Lows

 

Rates Stay Down But MoGauge Slips

 

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Guest yobob1

MH, what you said in last nights closing thread about the govt creating the problem is so true, but of course most don't grasp it.

 

Here's another example of the govt. caused distortionsThe economics of water in the West

 

While much rhetoric is spewed out extolling the "public" uses of water, it is clear that California and the American West in general would have benefited from private ownership and distribution of water.  No private firm would distribute a precious commodity like water in a desert in the way that the Bureau of Reclamation has done it.  While the subsidized farms in the West are private, the federal government owns the main input that is needed for their crops: water.  Thus, the term "private enterprise" here is meaningless, since the farms are wards of the state.

 

As the Times article demonstrates, however, this ridiculous saga may very well come to an end precisely because the government cannot create that which does not exist.  Under a private system of ownership ? or even a semi-private one in which those with water rights would be permitted to sell them to whomever they would choose ? the water would go to users willing to pay for them.

 

However, one might object, would that mean the end of some farms in California and elsewhere in the West?  Yes, that is exactly what that means.  The government has engaged in egregiously wasteful policies in order to politically distribute water, and those policies have created the current crisis.  One can be assured that if people actually had to pay market prices for water, and that water were privately owned in that region, it is doubtful that we would have seen the kind of wasteful development that has treated the western landscape as though it were a rain forest, not a desert.

 

If nobody had insurance, what do you suppose the price of an office visit would be? Would an aspirin administered in a hospital be $3?

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Yobob,

 

Another paragraph from the article you linked:

 

To put it in a way that Austrians would understand, government policies have resulted in malinvested resources and development that cannot be sustained.?As in Austrian Business Cycle Theory, which stresses that recovery cannot begin until the malinvested capital has been liquidated, the American West cannot begin to see true "sustainable" development until new policies are implemented.

 

When the rose-colored glasses finally come off, the extent of malinvestment in the U.S. economy will be revealed as enormous ... potentially lifestyle-threatening. Not unlike the malinvestment in the former Soviet Union which became obvious after glasnost and perestroika revealed the absurdities of the "value subtraction" administered economy.

 

Credit creation and debt have subsidised consumption, rather than productive investment which can generate a yield to repay the debt. Centrally-administered credit will prove to have been a massive value subtraction process, which has been slowly poisoning the U.S. economy for decades.

 

When the world market dries up for America's most competitive exports -- stock certificates, Treasurys and GSE debt -- there is no "real economy" to fall back on. Too many mortgage borkers, security traders and real estate agents have useless skills that will not be required in a sustainable real economy.

 

The U.S. is far more advanced in this destructive process than other countries, thanks to the so-called privilege of having the anchor currency. That would have been OK if the dollah had in turn remained tied to gold. But the floating-rate system which debuted in 1973 stopped per capita income growth in its tracks. And soon, when push comes to shove, the dreaded "reverse multiplier effect" may emerge with a vengeance ...

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Good Morning HB.

 

Appreciate all you do here...but there is no Thursday, July 14th.

 

I'm just back to Florida after two weeks on the road, so a bit dazed and confused after the time warp back to the past in Grand Rapids, Michigan, but I do believe today is Wednesday.

No Thursday July 14! :o Just testing to see if anyone noticed! :P

 

Hmmm. Retail sales weak, the MoGauge just bouncing along the bottom even with lower long term rates. Let's see if anyone expected retail sales to come in weak:

 

Hiding Bear Posted on: May 20 2004, 09:16 PM

 

Very quick take on the Money Supply, etc..

 

The boom in the money supply is rapidly wearing off and on the verge of reversing. In my opinion the little spring boomlet in the money supply was caused by the lagged effect of the March mini-housing boom and unknown central banks that continue to buy the US$. Japan is out of the game but China, and maybe Taiwan - because of fears of new saber rattling encounters with China - are putting a lot of dollars into the US. This is keeping the dollar strong and also preventing the bond market from collapsing.

 

I expect June economic statistics to show a marked down turn from May's.

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Ominous Signs

 

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When the world market dries up for America's most competitive exports -- stock certificates, Treasurys and GSE debt -- there is no "real economy" to fall back on. Too many mortgage borkers, security traders and real estate agents have useless skills that will not be required in a sustainable real economy.

Word.

 

The willingness of foreign central banks to buy US dollars, and Treasuries, GSEs, etc., is the "thin green line" between the illusion of inflationary prosperity and the reality of unhealthy, malinvested economy.

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Ian is an amateur photographer.

 

In May he was taking photos for his Shoreline Community College class at the Ballard locks, where waves of tourists flock to take pictures and where no signs prohibit shutterbugging.

 

Ian says he suddenly found himself surrounded by more than a half-dozen guys wearing black. He says they glowered, brusquely asked what he was doing and demanded his identification.

 

He tried to explain he was a photo student who had done nothing wrong and shouldn't have to show his ID. One of the men, Ian says, erupted: "See this badge! This is a federal badge! I'm with homeland security!"

 

Suspected for photographing while black

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Regarding water in the west...

 

Keep in mind that water flows toward money. With that in mind, picture the western United States as seen from space, and picture Las Vegas as a giant drain...the water that flows toward which is flushed and lost from the west forever.

 

If all water rights in the west are for sale to the highest bidder, it will all flow toward the most money, which ironically is delivered to Las Vegas by the sheeple daily, who are pissing away their retirment money, and the west's water, all at the same time.

 

About twenty years ago, I began to write a treatment for a movie to be entitled "Water Wars"..a futuristic view of what Las Vegas would represent to the west...the epicenter of greed, excess and gluttony, with money and water flowing in from thousands of miles away, while the balance of the west wilts.

 

Left unchecked, in a free market, Las Vegas casino operators would own all the water available for purchase in a few short years. The economics are simple enough. There is no other entity who is more incented to ensure that the toilets flush than the mega casino owners.

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Regarding water in the west...

 

Keep in mind that water flows toward money. With that in mind, picture the western United States as seen from space, and picture Las Vegas as a giant drain...the water that flows toward which is flushed and lost from the west forever.

 

If all water rights in the west are for sale to the highest bidder, it will all flow toward the most money, which ironically is delivered to Las Vegas by the sheeple daily, who are pissing away their retirment money, and the west's water, all at the same time.

 

About twenty years ago, I began to write a treatment for a movie to be entitled "Water Wars"..a futuristic view of what Las Vegas would represent to the west...the epicenter of greed, excess and gluttony, with money and water flowing in from thousands of miles away, while the balance of the west wilts.

 

Left unchecked, in a free market, Las Vegas casino operators would own all the water available for purchase in a few short years. The economics are simple enough. There is no other entity who is more incented to ensure that the toilets flush than the mega casino owners.

Of course Vegas would be paying the top market price while simultaneously forcing water costs up for everyone else and driving many people out of the region collapsing a significant portion of the West Coast economy. Since Vegas derives it's income from people gambling away their disposable (and their not so disposable income) one might ask who would be able to gamble in Vegas so that they could afford the water in the first place?

 

Ultimately Vegas would shrink without the huge support they garner from the sheeple who live in driving proximity to Vegas. Vegas shrinks and the price of water falls . Eventually some sort of equilibrium would occur.

 

Would their be a great deal of turmoil and pain while this process occurs? Definitely. That's how things work in the real world without govt. distortions.

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Morning Crew- Well I said it all last night-the Bulls are on the Hell bound train, today will not be pretty-unless of course you are a BEAR-the 200 day is 1103 we break that number on momentum and we CRASH-that simple. Window at the bell for 70 minutes, Helmets on, Buckle up! ;)

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