DrStool Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 If the airlines go Burger King, the debt gets written down, the assets get written down, and they can sell tickets cheaper, no? I think RockLedge meant some airlines would be going out of existence, not just BK. You are right, BK has been a hell of a deal for the airlines for decades - they get debt relief but are allowed to stay in business. Right... It's my mental masterbation. So far,... AMR has been told no, and I understand what Doc is saying, but again, I'm inclined to think that there's no way we can bail anyone out, let alone a few airlines. More or less, too bad, not this time. DAL, broke it's 30 year low, less than 2 months ago. I think it means something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 Stooltrading transcript from yesterday, Wednesday 7/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 I see AMR choked today on it's own vomit,.. DAL didn't act so good either. There's a very big BK coming in the airlines, count on it. I hope "belta" is paying cash ... o'wise u could end up as an unsecured creditor. For sure, mom & pop can't afford any of that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 The thing I noticed here in OZ was that everything changed the minute interest rates "actually" went up, the average Joes or sheeple dont notice anything different , but the sharks,crooks ,spivs and charalatans, they know instinctively that the games changed,these guys are hustlers,they know when to hold em and when to fold em,they would have bolted within minutes of the rate rises and be off counting their cash somewhere warm...the hapless sheeple would be ringing empty offices somewhere wondering where everyones gone. The ugly reality for these "investors" will finally be starting to sink in , all that bravado about "this being a great buying opportunity" will just evaporate as the prices just keep going lower and lower, orderly disposal of assets will turn into full blown panic as people realise that their very survival is at stake. The mentality of investors always staggers me, some I talk to here believe that if they really had to "sacrifice" their property they would accept the eqivilant of 90c on the dollar as they believe that the "bargain " hunters would swoop on such an opportunity....I argue that the "bargain" hunters pay about 20c on the dollar,and they dont buy properties at these wildly inflated prices... It is interesting that people are actually starting to talk about things like this all of a sudden,even the most optimistic investors now realise that the boom is over,most just dont expect things to be too bad,this is where we differ. I notice that some people are actually a "tad" more interested in my views,just a tad,but it is noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 If the airlines go Burger King, the debt gets written down, the assets get written down, and they can sell tickets cheaper, no? I think RockLedge meant some airlines would be going out of existence, not just BK. You are right, BK has been a hell of a deal for the airlines for decades - they get debt relief but are allowed to stay in business. Don't Airlines come under the rubric of :"National Security Assets ?" And if so doesn't it fullfill the oxymoronic adage "make a lead baloon fly" in an inverted sense; and doesn't this fullfill the Fed--Laboratory's recent experiments-- beardrech :cry: I have the feeling we're slowly regressing back to the Wright Bros era when every intelligent person laughed derisively at the idea of a flying machine:From the looks of things its beginning to look as if they were right (without a W) and the Flybabies were wrong--I ask you can time be redirected backwards --if so, now i can return that library book thats had me conscience stricken since 1945-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGInvestor Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 The thing I noticed here in OZ was that everything changed the minute interest rates "actually" went up, the average Joes or sheeple dont notice anything different , but the sharks,crooks ,spivs and charalatans, they know instinctively that the games changed,these guys are hustlers,they know when to hold em and when to fold em,they would have bolted within minutes of the rate rises and be off counting their cash somewhere warm...the hapless sheeple would be ringing empty offices somewhere wondering where everyones gone. The ugly reality for these "investors" will finally be starting to sink in , all that bravado about "this being a great buying opportunity" will just evaporate as the prices just keep going lower and lower, orderly disposal of assets will turn into full blown panic as people realise that their very survival is at stake. The mentality of investors always staggers me, some I talk to here believe that if they really had to "sacrifice" their property they would accept the eqivilant of 90c on the dollar as they believe that the "bargain " hunters would swoop on such an opportunity....I argue that the "bargain" hunters pay about 20c on the dollar,and they dont buy properties at these wildly inflated prices... It is interesting that people are actually starting to talk about things like this all of a sudden,even the most optimistic investors now realise that the boom is over,most just dont expect things to be too bad,this is where we differ. I notice that some people are actually a "tad" more interested in my views,just a tad,but it is noticeable. You seem like an astute observer of people and economic conditions. Too bad you don't live in the U.S. so we could hear your take on things here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted July 8, 2004 Report Share Posted July 8, 2004 AGInvestor, I have stated that our respective countries could well be chalk and cheese when it comes to all this stuff, but I doubt it, bubbles are bubbles.I just think we are about 9 months ahead of you guys. I lived thru the 80s recession,so I know a lot about what happens,my home state of Victoria actually went broke owing $35 billion or so..we lost our state bank and many ,many high profile businesses and people went broke. Our then Premier pointed to the skyline at all the cranes as a sign that things were prosperous,but it all collapsed...rents in office buildings were $1000 m2 (ask Doc how much that was in those days) before reality set in,many builders went broke,buildings that were worth $1 billion dropped to about $200 million,govts stepped in to bail some out,rents dropped back to about $240m2,one very high profile builder shot himself....it was pretty bad. The incoming Govt had to sell off half the states assets,privatise all sorts of state run businesses,took many years to turn around. This time it is more of a residential housing boom,which makes it potentially far worse imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 Suduca, I thought I could see a dirty big sharks fin in the corner of that surfing pic, if they happened to survive the wave, the shark was there to finish them off...lol, but I think its just another surfer..... I think that the new favorite expression amongst folks will be" Man !!! What were we thinking??" I reckon the 990N have been active in Australia,our markets are too strong,we have an election due anytime soon,it would look really bad for Bush if another one of his very,very closest and strongest coalition partners got rolled.... Lots of anger here in regards to the US sticking the bibs into our domestic politics. You downunder people need to understand your place as a client state. I think that Japan is having some elections this weekend. They need to understand their place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 Bill Gross' latest monthly commentary, stating the obvious: "Because of these realities based on historically high levels of debt issued during a period of superficially low interest rates, the global economy is indeed in my view, more vulnerable than it has been for the past 25-30 years. The economic and investment consequences appear to be as follows: real short-term rates kept too low will create asset bubbles and accelerating inflation. Real yields raised too high will pop existing asset bubbles and lead to economic recession." Talk about being between a rock and a hard place... BILL GROSS Great. Yet more in a seemingly endless parade of chartz, most of which are debt-related charting the ruination of this nation in the pASSt thirty yearz, starting the year HRFF graduated in the mid 1970's. what will be the denoument of all this WRETCHED EXCESS, BARE wunderz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 Col, I made a statement 12 months ago that I thought that Bush was an absolute certainty to win this election. As an outside observer I cant really get a "feel" for things over there,but I have changed my mind,I think he will lose. I know the US is fairly conservative across the heartland (similar to Australia) but this war is dragging on and I think it is probably starting to weigh on people,even those who supported the war are probably just hoping it will all go away and we know that it cant be wrapped up quickly under the present admin,so the next easiest thing for most people to do is to start a fresh. Bush doesn't appear to have much residual goodwill, he doesnt appear to be overly likeable,I dont know this is just a casual observation from a bear in a far off country...not any kind of endorsement one way or the other... Bush is extremely unpopular in Australia and we are a very close friend of the US,thats pretty rare in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 B Bear -- the tide may be turning against him here as you say. The constant fear and war mongering is wearing very thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 DAL, broke it's 30 year low, less than 2 months ago. I think it means something. it means im flying southwest airlines exclusively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 I dunno gang, a Bush/McCain ticket might be too much for Frankenstein and Bo Duke to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted July 9, 2004 Report Share Posted July 9, 2004 If the airlines go Burger King, the debt gets written down, the assets get written down, and they can sell tickets cheaper, no? Thats the unintended advantage to going Ch. 11 nowadays. With the airlines you have an increasingly competitive industry made up of the old guard players (run with extremely high fixed costs, powerful unions across the board, and balance sheets that make AJC look sexy) running against non-union, new efficient blood and count 'em one older company that actually runs a business not a loss machine (LUV). The BKs will only take debt service out of the equation, allowing them to be more competitive to some degree in time for them to look good for a bit so people will lend to them again, re-stock their aging fleets, and start the process all over. Look how telecom pricing power returned after WCOM went BK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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