Ags Nightmare Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 Just another day of random chaos, out of left field space needles, goal post charts, hedgehog bumper cars with baseball bats, and a Fed rockstar bullhorning about being behind some curve or fastball and willing to take some extra batting practice...unfortunately the Sheerme Leeson Reserve only know one shape and it has a wide base and a pointy tip.....like clockwork...it's wednesday before opex and the giraffe's are hungry.....there is a tension in the air in anticipation of the potential mania fun and games on Fantasy Island after hours once Yahoo breaks pro forma wind for the umpteenth time...billions in market cap will be affected by a few copper pennies... The Long Haul..... I couldn't get over looking at the weekly QQQ and Yahoo charts below and wondered how many people are trapped on the top of the mountain and how long it's going to take for that mistake to "come back" seeing how "everything always comes back in time".... So I gave the "pattern" below a name....The "Denver Omlette"... Or an "I'm in it for the long haul so it doesn't matter" chart...... This pattern looks like the terrain of Denver Colorado on the left side then flows into the flatlands of Nebraska and stays that way for several years..... On the left side of the chart you have ski slopes littered with multi millionaires partying in Vail, hotub parties with hired escorts, drunken skiing binges, blindfold tequila snowbording competition, Bentley, Porsche and Humvee rentals, fur coats, ATM machines in bathrooms, and $ 5,000 dollar per day suites....imagine the parties that went on up there, the invincibilty, the coffetti being exchanged for goods and services.... Then on the right, after one of your trips down the mountain the chair lift has a sign that says.."Out of Order".... So the vacation ends,the slope flattens out and you head east...soon the surroundings start drastically changing as you head out of the foothills and begin seeing "Eat at Joe's" greasy spoons popping up, roadside trailer parks, scattered farms, miles of corn and dirt, mad cows, banks named after some obscure little town one hundred fifty miles apart and a denim factory.... I kept picturing that scene from Dumb and Dumber when Jeff Daniels and Jim Carrey traded in their van for a two foot motor scooter wearing those stupid helmets with Barney Fife goggles and by the time they hit Vail their boogers were frozen...only this ones in reverse..... So what does "I'm in it for the long haul" really mean.... I'd say it is probably the most common cop out for crapvision bullhorners or sheeple when they blow a call or get trapped in a position post shank....been that way for years...we all have experienced that dreaded feeling at one time or another when you hold onto something too long, get too greedy, or just flat out make a mistake.... but the "words" "long haul" somehow have that soothing effect to make you feel better for screwing up and is particularly usefull for Dr. Bob types as no one will ever question the line of sheet since it's been used for so long......but a "long haul" in a mania can be more lethal... .....if a long haul scenario should occur in a mania, it is always accompanied by an "additional excuse or phrase"... "We advise "Investors" to average down, cause it always comes back anyway".... So in Wall Street Speak... I guess it means it's OK to "lose" as long as you are in it for the ?long haul? ....."we are rich so we don't care and have to make something up".... those words in essence replace the realistic phrase of " wtf were you thinking ?"...or "Gmtfo!".... One day I'd love to ask the following question..."Dr. Bob...explain "the long haul" "words" after a pole axe ?... it would be great to hear their answer when they are in the midst of a flop sweat situation like the time I saw Mary Ferret reco some retailer on crapvision.... as she was yapping, they flashed up an "earnings warning" on the her "top pick" seconds after she gave out the symbol.....but like a pro, she never broke stride watched the stock drop seemingly without a care in the world... "defining long haul" after a shank ? When you start hearing someone say ?it's a good long term hold? that means they blew it?or?. Sorry folks, this stock is a stinker and you are gonna be on the beach with a metal detector playing soccer with your berries by the time you break even if you are currently fourty....but...you will eventually be able to fund your long term care with proceeds if you "hold", so make sure you call us if you break even so we can get the commission.... The way I look at it is the 2000 wipe out in the above chart made a five year long haul ten, twenty or thirty year long haul "if you had no infusion of cash" to "average down".... Then comes the question of "time"....thats never brought up.... If you were sixty and bought and own a good chunk of Cubes at 90 or above , your own personal ? long haul? which might have been two years probably just became twenty years....or maybe turned a short term retirement goal into a job at Mickey D's..... We all make mistakes at some point but to me the ?long haul? after a shank means you got fried in something and you ain?t getting out for a while unless you tap into the home equity line and double down on your position or fortunately have enough cash and income to get even and get out quicker or take a tax loss.... There are a ton of "stupid sayings" on Wall Street that I have a whole list of with my own definitions, but when I saw this chart today and really looked at it from a wider time frame....I couldn't help but wonder how many really are in this one for the "long haul" and how stupid that saying really is....particularly when it's really not your money until you "sell"... Time to see if the Yahooligan long haulers make some more of their money back in a another ..."this is getting old" lesson in how to ignore overvaluation....looks familiar.... Ag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lesser Fool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 Kudos on identifying that "goal-post" pattern. To my jaded perspective it also looks like a a keel-haul pattern. A punishment said to have originated with the Dutch but adopted by other navies around the 15th and 16th centuries: A Line would be rigged from yardarm to yardarm Athwartships such that it passed under the ships Keel. The seaman to be punished would be secured to it (sometimes with iron or led weights About his legs) and be hauled up to one side. He would then be dropped suddenly into the sea, hauled underneath the Ship, and hoisted up on the other side. This would be repeated once he had recovered his breath. While he was underwater this Ship would sometimes fire a large gun (cannon) "the which is done as well to astonish him so much the more with thunder of the shot, asto give warning unto all others of the fleet to look out and be wary by his harms" - Captain Nathaniel Boteler, 'A Dialogical Discourse' 1634 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 Yesterday I posted Dr. Hussman's finding, that the correlation between earnings increases and following-year stock market gains is ZERO. Today Mark Hulbert (citing Ned Davis research) breaks that conclusion down into finer detail. When earnings are plunging more than minus 25% annually, yes that's bad. But the "sweet spot" proves to be mild declines in earnings, which typically occur as the economy is emerging from recession, and the authorities are pumping in liquidity. Beyond that point, the stronger earnings are rising, the less favorable for the stock market. Why? Because by the time earnings are soaring, it's usually late in the expansion cycle, and the authorities are taking away the punch bowl. Hey! That sounds like right now! So as we enter another quarterly earnings annoucement season, and the shills relentlessly cite "rising earnings," remember that strongly rising earnings (> +20%) have been correlated with with only tiny stock market gains in the past. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 Hulbert's just copying what I wrote in this thread yesterday. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 AA misses on earnings $0.46 versus 0.48 expected, 0.26 year ago revs $6.09b vs 6.08b (lucky guess on their part) bid -3% in AH in other news Ken Lay is going to the big house, white collar style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 anything from yhoo? Or are they still putting the finishing touches obn the pro forma fiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 I think what all these poodits miss is exactly what Granville said 30-35 years ago. What do stock prices have to do with earnings? Absolutely nothing. And I would add, it's the liquidity baby. It is the desire to put the excess liquidity into stocks which drives markets higher, and the need for more liquidity which drives them down. An expanding economy, or an inflating financial system needs ever more liquidity. If it doesn't get enough it contracts. Those contractions can be slow and steady, or fast and sharp. Which will this be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 nice race for the exits in ALTR at the close to finish near the LOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 If Bush is re appointed, Lay gets off, guaranteed. If Bush loses, Lay may rot up at Allenwood for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 yeehaw taking the pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 down a buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 now coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 SCHN down almost 2 ah, Q3 beat upwardly revised expectations, but I guess the talk on Q4 is not going over well: Schnitzer Steel Reports Record Quarterly Revenue and Net Income Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 Close: The market held its head above water for most of the session, finishing with modest 0.1-0.2% gains... Today's move higher was largely a response to the last three sessions of straight losses - buyers re-emerged and targeted some of the hardest hit areas like technology... However, the conviction behind such efforts was weak - as evidenced by the split market internals at the NYSE and Nasdaq... As a result, the major indices were unable to put together a sustainable rally and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 alike finished below their 50-day simple moving averages... Selling in one notable area of tech - software - held the Composite back as the space suffered from warnings from JDA Software (JDAS 10.99 +0.86) and PeopleSoft (PSFT 17.10 +0.28)... Blue chip areas were largely mixed for the day - financials falling behind due to concentrated selling in brokerage, but materials, energy, and health care climbing higher...Tonight, after the close, Alcoa (AA 32.70 +0.72), Genentech (DNA 53.78 -0.88), and Yahoo! (YHOO 32.63 -0.59) will report their Q2 (June) numbers... SOX +1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 2028/1248, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1428/1632 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 7, 2004 Report Share Posted July 7, 2004 Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Big Dump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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