Guest bullseatshitndie Posted June 18, 2004 Report Share Posted June 18, 2004 Another interesting feature of this chart is that we can see the negative divergences in the 200-EMA and 50-EMA. You'll notice that intermediate-term internals began to weaken well before the April 2004 top in the S&P 600 Index, but the long-term 200-EMA top came in January of this year. Internal tops can lead the actual price tops by quite a bit because the larger-cap stocks will carry the cap-weighted index, while the smaller-cap stocks are falling into a ditch. http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotlite..._200emaSML.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted June 18, 2004 Report Share Posted June 18, 2004 jickiss is back and hello Marky Mark and Slothrop: and jickiss asks that one and all count back 20 daze on the below $XAU chart, which jickiss thinks is quite boolish: and acres of diamonds to all still long __ on margin. it is becoming very clear that control is about to unravel in southwest asia. regards to all, jickiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 18, 2004 Report Share Posted June 18, 2004 From Melduke's blog spot According to yesterday?s report released by the California Association of Realtors, only 20% of households in California are able to afford a median-priced home. The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at 4453,590 in California in April was $102,550, based on a typical 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 5.42 percent and assuming a 20% downpayment. By comparison, the minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $176,000 in the U.S. in April 2004 was $39,790. It is not surprising that people are moving from California to other more affordable areas. Nowhere USA here I come! still hoping for a complete northern CA real estate crash in the next five years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted June 18, 2004 Report Share Posted June 18, 2004 Good point, jick. Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Just read this: Barron's writers will drop their by-lines this week to honor a protest against parent company Dow Jones and their wage/benefits policies. Wow. No Alan Ableson byline? I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 jickiss is back and dear Slothrop: thank you for your comment. what has happened, for sure, is that technical analysis has become a "Worship of Image" and funnymentals are ignored. we all know this to be the case, but we also know that in the long run, we are all dead. however, da Matrix has used technical analysis to create many smoke screens, and these screens have enabled da Boyz to grab billions for themselves. Forget $XAU and GG, etc., and think about something as "Basic" as CSCO. jickiss has (believe it or not) a friend that jickiss BEGGED to sell CSCO at 62, and to simply Pay Da Tax, and to buy 5 year treasuries. (he had north of 25 CSCO) This is just like the stories of Marky Mark, trying to get others to listen to reason...They will not. They believed that if, for instance, the Indoo was moving back up, toward the old highs, that CSCO would also go back toward its old highs...or maybe even go higher. Never mind that the funnymentals show that CSCO may be worth, at best, about $3.00 per share. Funnymentals mean -0- in a William Oneel world of mo-mo-mo-mo, with Monetary Authorities that are enabling mass insanity to rule. Moe. Mo-Mo-Mo. You are Right, da 3 Stooges, for sure. Oneel, Green, Kramit. Anyway, back to the country of merica. as long as merica can print money and buy oil and trees and chips and etc., and this scam works, then we are "safe." jickiss does not mean safe from our enemies, but safe from ourselves. on the day when the rest of the world calls time out, for good, then we will no longer be safe from ourselves. Keep your eyes on Southwest Asia. When gold clears 400 for good, then the reality of the undervaluation of the assets represented by the gold shares will begin to re-emerge into the trading patterns of the more agressive-minded players. But, it will not be until gold trades above 433.33 that a more logical, asset based fundamental will start to become a driver of takeovers and sponsorship. When Da Boyz realize how high up really is, believe it or not, they will produce and distribute Boolish funnymental reports on NEM, et al. hence, the thought that you presented, in re the $XAU chart pattern is most worthy of consideration, and should be monitored daily....for Da Boyz still have power, and until they lose it, jickiss thinks that it is best to use caution...let the jickiss' use margin, but, for sure, on the fundamentals, the miners are dirt cheep. one of the things that Da Track teaches is that there can be entire cards that should not be bet. (A card is the list of the races for one day at one track). There can be 10 races in a row at one track that are just too risky to bet. At the last peak in the XAU, when, for instance, gg was 18 1/2, there were no safe gold mining stocks. But now, the bettors have a new card, and, for sure, at least 5 or 6 of 10 or 12 races are worth betting on. Favorites, too! (Meaning the leading, quality miners). Regards to all and acres of diamonds, too. they are just ahead. keep running for the wire, Marky Mark and Doc have trained one and all. we will win. jickiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 5:49 Al-Qaida head in Saudi Arabia killed - news reports Dow up 375 points Monday Nasdaq up 88 points Crude down $4 Gold down $21 Dollar up 250 pips 37.5 8.8 0.40 2.10 25 ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 At The Art Gallery On LOB Click Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Pricing Instability. Neighbor told me the house up the street with the FSBO sign had changed to a realtor sign. Took a walk to do some investigation. 1750sf, 1 story, 3/2. FSBO went up about 3 weeks ago, $380K. Now listed with a realtor for $325K, with a commission being paid. Will net around $70K less or 18% less than starting expectation. About 8 doors down the street, the identical house is still listed w/realtor for $424,900. So within 10 doors, on the same street, we have 2 identical houses with realtors (OK maybe some tile floor and landscaping differences) $100K apart in price! -- Noted a larger one with realtor sign. 2480sf, 2 story. $469K. Fresh listing. But 1 block away is the identical 2480sf model. This one I have some pricing data on. 5/5/04 FSBO sign appeared, I called, price was stated $489K. 5/17 FSBO replaced by realtor sign, price now $424,900. Yesterday 6/18 flyer marked price reduced, $399,900. Net after commission $105K less than starting FSBO price, 21% reduction in expectations over a month. Here we have 2 identical larger houses $70K apart in price, one at $399.9K and one at $469K, both with "professional" realtors. -- What I haven't figured out is how the lenders are dealing with appraisals. You very well could have identical houses in the same subdivision selling $600K and $450K within a couple of weeks of each other. How does the $600K guy get his financing? Or did he pay cash? Nasdaq like volatility in pricing, the numbers mean nothing, it is all borrowed funny money anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Sounds like some are desparate to get out of properties...probably have too many at one time and can't keep all the balls in the air. You are seeing the beginning of the end. Once people become desparate to get out from underneath mortgage obligations, for whatever reason, the market dynamics change very quickly. What was once urgency to buy at any price quicly becomes a hunt for those properties that are being fire-saled, which has the affect of lifting one's foot off the accellerator. Once this occurs, a new reality takes hold and a selk-reinforcing cycle of panic selling sets in. This is what it looks like when a pyramid scheme approaches the end of it's lifespan, when the supply of greater fools begins to run out. Behold, the beginning of the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 It isn't just in the hot spots either like Las Vegas and L.A. My friend who's trying to sell a house here in the midwest just can't get any takers. Last year his house would have sold the day it was listed. And, he's already dropped the price once. By 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowstone Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 From Bare Uns: Clear Skies, Plenty of Sun By LAUREN R. RUBLIN abby justa colon likes softie and FELIX ZULAUF: Mines and metals producers are attractive. Phelps Dodge trades for six times earnings. Copper prices could climb a little higher. You could make 20% or more with a speculative name like Norilsk Nickel in Russia, which trades for four times earnings. It is the dominant nickel producer worldwide. Nickel prices have tumbled and are in for a strong rebound. Bill Gross: The BlackRock Muni Term Trust 2006, which I also recommended, has a fixed-maturity asset. It's a defensive play and is down about 4% in price.......I still think the BlackRock Muni Term Trust 2006 is a good bet as a short-term money-market alternative. It's tax-free. This is a two-year piece of paper with a 4.50% yield..........In the short term, I wouldn't discourage investors from owning stocks. Longer term, the market is vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and rising interest rates. Housing is in a minibubble. The Nasdaq had its bubble, and now the money has moved into hedge funds and commodities. That's the nature of 1% interest rates, or negative real interest rates. Marc Faber: Markets simply don't do much for the next eight, 12, 24 months........The least desirable asset is cash, but cash may be an alternative in the absence of knowing better.......Gold?I am not optimistic about commodities in the short term, but this is the beginning of a long-term bull market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lb Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 How?s that war rally going? Anyone win yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Interesting take on bonds by a fellow named Bob Bronson Now...given a bit of time to reflect on real estate in my local area, it seems that just about everyone I have chatted with or overheard snippets at parties and barbeques and tennis club chats it seems that damned near everyone with a mortgage in my area has made what they assume was their final refi...by LOCKING IN their rates with a fixed mortgage! The ratio ran at least 7 out of 10 have gone to a fixed mortgage. They are now all on one side of that boat..... ....and don't forget my possible whopsaw target of 1.430 on the $IRX. Around that time I would expect the bid to cover ratio of new Treasury sales to hit record high demand. That will most definately be your clue that the scenario of collapsing rates ahead after that will be very real. Oh...990N and John Mackenzie seem to be getting some play on this morning's Puplava rantings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Mixed info though. Today I'm going to a grand opening of a new subdivision where 3000 people have signed up on the interest list. Construction just started, first homes for delivery will be in November. Last time they did this, a few months ago, they had over 1000 people fighting for places in line on opening day, some had camped out for 2 days in advance, and the state police were called in to restore order. Let's see how bad the queues are today. I was told to expect to park far away and walk a long distance. Prices are being announced today, they have not been disclosed until now, so we have no idea what they will be asking. Investors and 2nd home buyers are banned, and any sales agreements written will have the addendum which says you cannot rent the home out for a year after closing, and if you do, any rent collected is due to the builder. Should you sell inside of a year, any capital gain is payable to the builder. Exceptions are provided for death, divorce, and legitimate job transfer which forces a sale. So it is all over the map. Some resales were overpriced to start, and are dropping their expectations. Yet throngs of hopefuls are still queuing up at builder sites for a chance to buy their piece of the rock at any price. I will continue to get on as many lists and into lotteries as I can with no cost, until I finally get to a point where they say you have to decide, buy or not. I'm in no hurry today because to avoid the police situation this time they established an online sign up where you could get ahead of walk-ins, and I did that months ago. Today's chore is to show up in person and validate your entry. All who don't show in person are eliminated, those who do retain their position on the list established by computer, and the hopefuls who show up in person but never entered on the computer come behind the rest of us. Carleton Sheets is on TV as I type (really)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.