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wndysrf

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Fart -

 

I split my time between the UK and the US. The Asian/European versions of Bloomberg, Crapvision and CNN have had super bearish fund managers on for 12-18 months. My favourite was Soros calling for a secular bear over a year ago. They played that clip over and over for months. They have been more bearish lately but hell the bulls were right for a decade.

 

I'm in the telecommunications hardware manufacturing business and I am also seeing the first uptick in a long time BUT - all our customers have serious long-term problems and the uptick is just their last gasps - a desperate attempt to capture more customers and increase revenues. These hopeless attempts to grow revenue will cause a TEMPORARY uptick from the semis through to IT spending.

 

I've seen the business plans and projections for several large telecommunication and service providers. They are complete fantasy. I've watched them the past 2 years scale back to the point of relatively no capital spending and massive layoffs. Now, they have become bullish and are projecting growth again. Why? Because if they don?t the alternative projection leads to demise for most of them. Most executive are happy to cut during a downturn because for the most part they won?t be the ones out of a job. But if they project the current trend it leads to the obvious - closing the doors. They will spend the last of their cash on doomed business plans before they voluntarily shut the doors.

 

The uptick you are seeing is just a result of the last desperate spending spree of the tech dependent industries.

 

How long will it last? Well it takes time for these plans to fail but spending is cautious this time around due to shareholders keeping a closer watch on boards now so the "show me" attitude will nip this tech spending spree real quick. I'll give it 2 quarters at most before this "uptick" peters out.

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Buddha,

 

I enjoy your commentary, almost as much as Mark's. I don't know if political commentary belongs on another Stoolie board. But, as a supporter, along with a majority of Americans, of most of what this President has done, I'm offended by comments here that are market comments but are interlaced with political attacks. If I want to hear that I can go to a political board. I just think it's way over the top to call our President "little fascist" and "idiot" as you do, amidst an otherwise excellent market commentary. I don't feel right responding on this board by writing a comment defending Bush, or attacking his impeached, serial-rapist predecessor. I don't think Doc would permit it. And he shouldn't, anymore than you should be permitted to tee off on Bush that way, at least here on Mark To Market.

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Fart -

 

I split my time between the UK and the US. The Asian/European versions of Bloomberg, Crapvision and CNN have had super bearish fund managers on for 12-18 months. My favourite was Soros calling for a secular bear over a year ago. They played that clip over and over for months. They have been more bearish lately but hell the bulls were right for a decade.

 

I'm in the telecommunications hardware manufacturing business and I am also seeing the first uptick in a long time BUT - all our customers have serious long-term problems and the uptick is just their last gasps - a desperate attempt to capture more customers and increase revenues. These hopeless attempts to grow revenue will cause a TEMPORARY uptick from the semis through to IT spending.

 

I've seen the business plans and projections for several large telecommunication and service providers. They are complete fantasy. I've watched them the past 2 years scale back to the point of relatively no capital spending and massive layoffs. Now, they have become bullish and are projecting growth again. Why? Because if they don?t the alternative projection leads to demise for most of them. Most executive are happy to cut during a downturn because for the most part they won?t be the ones out of a job. But if they project the current trend it leads to the obvious - closing the doors. They will spend the last of their cash on doomed business plans before they voluntarily shut the doors.

 

The uptick you are seeing is just a result of the last desperate spending spree of the tech dependent industries.

 

How long will it last? Well it takes time for these plans to fail but spending is cautious this time around due to shareholders keeping a closer watch on boards now so the "show me" attitude will nip this tech spending spree real quick. I'll give it 2 quarters at most before this "uptick" peters out.

All you have to really know about the telecommunications industry to understand the uptick is the design cycle, which is about 2 yrs... Looking at a projected recovery date for the telecommunications/networking sector of Q4 2004, the semiconductor design uptick activity I noted, is right on schedule...

 

Please note that I also indicated that I was not expecting a V recovery, Nasdaq5000, or anything like it... I just said 2003 will not be another down year in the equity markets... that's my story and I'm sticking with it...

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speculator,

 

Funnymentals become fundamentals with that post. Great post. In fact POST OF THE DAY/NIGHT IT SHALL BE DEEMED. :grin:

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Fart,

 

NOT pickin' on ya. :D But for the record, In your opinion will the lows of Oct. be broken, tested or never to come this year?

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well,everyone is long except me....and its gonna stay that way..i'm not goin long,don't care how high it goes.

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All you have to really know about the telecommunications industry to understand the uptick is the design cycle, which is about 2 yrs... Looking at a projected recovery date for the telecommunications/networking sector of Q4 2004, the semiconductor design uptick activity I noted, is right on schedule...

 

Please note that I also indicated that I was not expecting a V recovery, Nasdaq5000, or anything like it... I just said 2003 will not be another down year in the equity markets... that's my story and I'm sticking with it...

Fart -

 

The Q4 2004 date is the same one I have seen in many of the recently revised projections and plans of our customers. You are dead on about the 2 year cycle - but can be as short as 9 months for some of the higher volume low-end equipment.

 

What I am predicting is those designs will never see the light of day because those projections will be shifted out AGAIN within 6 months. :o The current relative "bullishness" or "uptick", of R&D tech development is due to FALSE projections by potential customers of said equipment. Those projections will be revised DOWN in 6 months.

 

That my story and I'm sticking to it. :P

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well,everyone is long except me....and its gonna stay that way..i'm not goin long,don't care how high it goes.

Put'er there, Hanky. The only thing I'm long is cash, miners, and a whole boatload of underwater puts.

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Guest

I don't doubt FP regarding an uptick in tech spending. I work in IT at one of the law factories (700+lawyers, four locations, two countries) in their main office in NYC.

We have had to update both our software and hardware this past year and plan some major upgrades and additions in 2003. Our budget this coming year is the highest in the last three. There are things we are using like scanned faxes of handmarked documents sent directly to a recipient's computer that we did not have two or three years ago but, have become necessities and we have to upgrade this new tool and the printers in order to print them more than a page a minute which is happening now. There are a few other things I could name as well that were not around plus new things coming out we plan on utilizing. You can multiply our needs easily by 100+ other large firms throughout the U.S. as well as the clients we service. The point is, you can not go for more than a few years in a major service industry without upgrading and with interest rates for corporate borrowing as low as they are, there will possibly be a pickup in tech spending this year. Especially in fields like my firm's where the economy hasn't affected us adversely.

 

BTW, after the economic holocaust to come, there will be only two things left, cockroaches and lawyers. :wink2:

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I don't feel right responding on this board by writing a comment defending Bush, or attacking his impeached, serial-rapist predecessor.

By all means, let's not have any personal attacks.

 

I've been thinking of changing my screen id and avatar. Which shall it be, Little Fascist Idiot or Impeached Serial Rapist? Or maybe I can find one that will piss off everybody. :P

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Guest soup1

Fart: you may be correct that the economy and the mkt are poised to make a comeback ( I highly doubt that fact, but who knows?) but please do not sound like you are going out on a limb. THat is the consensus thinking. Everybody and their brother is calling for the same. ( never mind that all the shills have been dead wrong for quite some time, and have cost folks a ton of dough) I know many need to run with the crowd, whatever, but realize it for what it is , the nerd mentality hovering around the same consensus.

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well,everyone is long except me....and its gonna stay that way..i'm not goin long,don't care how high it goes.

That ain't true. I was dong (net) but, ain't no mo. :grin:

 

I believe Pile, B4 and a few others including our leader, THE DOCTOR, is not long. There are a few sane ones out here in nvere never land.

 

 

HELL, we could be in a brand spankin new stalk, oh, i mean steak market.

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