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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell, Tuezelday, June 8

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REPOST from last night

================

 

 

I think we c :

 

Tue: UP

Wed: DOWN

Thurday: UP [da top till after OPEX]

Friday : Da Great Communicator's long farewell

 

Like I mentioned earlier I think we will fail to regain the Mar03 uptrend line on the SPX at approx >1150[or have false break above it] and then decline into OPEX friday. I expect the Bradley 6/17 +-3days to be a ST top so we could top on Tues or OPEX Fri but unlikely imo.

 

After OPEX fri I expect the rally will resume regaining the Mar 03 uptrend line by June 30th Iraqi handover date. I also think the Fed will raise by 0.25 or NOT at all...1.75 is priced in by the end of the yr according to da Fed Fund futures.

 

ONE CAVEAT: The decline mentioned above could turn out to be a mere side ways ..slightly down move to 1130-35maximum

 

 

we'll c how it goes stoolies but I c no declines into the Gipper's funeral.

 

 

BDK

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These stunts are not about buying...

 

On days with big downward pressure at the open, they put the site in slowdown mode to prevent people from heading for the exits.

 

It's working fine again now.

 

Never ever ever ever ever ever happens on up days.

I don't understand. Doesn't someone has to sell for someone to buy and vice versa whether on up or down days? The price direction would seem to be irrelevant.

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Window closing it was OK we got 2 new lows out of it-ticks are in the crapper, trin bouncing around the sell-me numbers..patience..the Pig flies alone for a bit.

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In Southern California, the real estate mania is still going on. In some new area of Irvine, Orange County, the averaged price for 4Br and 3Ba is around $700 K. The kicker is the property tax in those new zone is 2% for the first 25 years. So, the monthly averaged tax, association fee, insurance is around $1400. Assuming the buyer puts down 20% and take a 30-year loan of $560K at 6.25%, his/her monthly payment for interest and principal will be $3450. So, the monthly cost for his/her home is $4850. Assuming that the buyer spends 40% of his/her after tax income on housing, his/her after tax annual income has to be $145,500. This number is very staggering because most of the families do not have that much income.

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Update Market Sectors

 

Reagan raised interest rates? I thought the Fed made interest rate policy. But I guess record budget deficits do have an impact on bond yields.

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Mi-Gawd-AL- that is unreal-when Kalifornicates housing market implodes-they will just pack up and leave.

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Today's Trick:

 

Ameritrade web site slowdown.

 

Take Cover!

I switched to an ECN. Works fine and very fast!

 

So there is nothing wrong with the internet there or with

the order flow as I see it.

 

Hey Ameritrade - go to ....

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Guest

SEN Joe Biden, on the Senate Judicial Committee, just warned Ashcroft

that he could be facing contempt of congress charges for failing to

answer questions from the Senators. Duck and Dodge!!

 

Subject: prisoner abuse

 

 

Sick 'em, Joe!

 

 

Sherlock

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Guest

These stunts are not about buying...

 

On days with big downward pressure at the open, they put the site in slowdown mode to prevent people from heading for the exits.

 

It's working fine again now.

 

Never ever ever ever ever ever happens on up days.

I don't understand. Doesn't someone has to sell for someone to buy and vice versa whether on up or down days? The price direction would seem to be irrelevant.

On days when more people are eager to sell than buy (many of who are retail traders), matching these orders efficiently results in rapid price declines. Removing some of the these eager sellers from the pool reduces the downside pressures, and allows buy/sell orders to be matched within a tighter bid/ask spread range. Once the sell side pressure has been diminished and the boys manage to attain equalibrium, the site begins to work just fine. They've done it many times.

 

Totally logical.

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Opening now for one hour_Helmets on, Buckle up-if it doesn't crap here, I will be very surprised.

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