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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell, Tuezelday, June 8

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This is the chart I was referring to.

he substitutes for it with that yearly ROC chart that has been only weakly moving up the past few years, and is showing signs of rolling over right now, which seems to be consistent with the backup in yields lately. His work is legit. If we start moving down in earnest on year over year credit growth, we're going to be in a big shitstorm. This is why the Fed and GSE have been so desperate to expand credit to anyone with a pulse the last couple years. they know it;s all about the ROC.

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I will keep it simple- either tomorrow 06/08/04 we blast into orbit or we implode I rate 60-40 toward implode-but hey, no guarantee's-there iis no doubt we are at a tipping point-if they pull it off to the upside I go on a Siesta, Amigos!

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Greenspan had to get in Cheney's camp after 9/11...it's obvious he had no choice other that to save the economy from total melt-down...and the only way to do so was to lie.  I consider massive intervention into free markets to be a form of lying.

 

.

You are right on the money.

 

Would like to add greensin saw a way to steal MORE, alot more.

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This is the chart I was referring to.

 

A log chart is not going to tell you anything more then what this chart shows other than that debt growth is slowing...

 

Debt backed by debt systems don't implode because of too much debt growth (unless debt grows too fast and reaches maximum potential too quickly) they implode because of too little debt growth (The reaching of maximum potential)...How come the FED does not release the full stats going all the way back to 1913 and have discontinued the release of others...I'll tell you why...Because it would be blindingly self evident how close we are to an economic horrorshow beyond comprehension...

 

All the info is at Economagic.com if you want to make log charts...

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Bullish?

 

E-W on the naz.

 

We're right where 5=1.

post-20-1086754542_thumb.png

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Bullish?

 

Who's accumulating?

post-20-1086755598.png

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Bullish?

 

Who's accumulating?

I'm no elliott man, but 5 waves is impulsive. So, after a correction, expect more upside?

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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 4. The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications-a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings-decreased by 8.9 percent to 568.8 on a seasonally adjusted basis from 624.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 18.5 percent compared with last week and was down 68.0 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

 

The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 6.0 percent to 432.2 from 459.8 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index decreased by 13.9 percent to 1363.2 from 1583.6 one week earlier.

 

The Refinance Index is down 86.3 percent from the record high of 9977.8 set exactly one year ago.

 

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 32.6 percent of total applications from 34.3 percent the previous week.

 

The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 34.6 percent of total applications from 33.9 percent the previous week.

 

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