Hiding Bear Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! The trip that bears have taken lately is ... well... like crossing the sun - a trip that Venus is also taking today. Venus Transit http://www.xs4all.nl/~carlkop/venus/transit.html China is attempting to limit credit expansion - and at the same time limit the flow of dollars into the country. China is involuntarily accumulating large quantities of US$s as investors rush to beat an anticipated upvaluation in the rinimbi (yuan). This also has the effect of expanding their money supply and making credit easier to obtain. G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China A publication controlled by the central bank warned on Monday of a possible need to raise interest rates if inflation continues to rise. Also on Monday, three government agencies jointly announced restrictions on the ability of foreign banks to bring money into China, as a way to discourage capital inflow that has fed growth in the money supply and inflation. The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently began urging banks to be more cautious in lending to car buyers. And a slew of government agencies are seeking to slow real estate speculation, the source of many fortunes that are now being spent partly on new cars. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/08/business...ess/08auto.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 NY YIMES touting FOMC line on inflation..... http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/08/business/08fed.html?th The issue is important to Mr. Greenspan, who faces a Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday for a fifth term as Fed chairman. For if the best thinking at the Federal Reserve turns out to be wrong, the Fed could be forced to be considerably more aggressive as it embarks on an expected series of rate increases beginning this summer. By doing so, it might run the risk of financial disruptions among institutional investors and heavily indebted consumers. Also, G8 has ambitious agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Hi Hiding Bear et Al. I might try to post my SMegH (Semiconductor) comments here for the wilder [sic]audience. I normally post over on GoldStool. Here is my SMegH comment from over the weekend. Although my call for shorting the SMegH at 39 looks pretty darn good at this point, as the next graph shows there is some concern and closing of shorts around these levels might not be such a bad plan until the waters clear a little. We may still be in an upchannel that could give us better shorting ops ahead. This is no place to go wildly long IMO however. That was right. As for me personally: I'd completed my PMS work and had just swung into SMegH mode. As I pulled up the appropriate picture I could see we were right then at a great buy op. Price was at 37.95 sitting just above Friday's high after breaking out and pulling back. It was well supported there. Downside risk was only 12 cents and upside much more. I quickly set up the trade and I held my finger over the BUY key. Then I hesitated and in that moment of hesitation the market moved up 10 cents. I held off, I never bought, the market rallied over 80 cents. C'est la vie. PLUS: SMegH SmegH and more SMegH. Just thought I'd show where I thought we are. Maybe this is merely another chance to get short. The area around the recent high looks like the place (39.02)with another intesting area up at 39.50 to 39.60. Stops for the ST trade should be above 40, and above 42 for an IT trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trinharder Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 What follows is just a copy and paste from an e-mail I received from the OIC. The link to the original source is in the text below. With the recent disscussion on the P/C ratio, I thought it would be interesting to see this derivite trade from a broad perspective. Highlights are mine. OIC ANNOUNCES YEAR TO DATE VOLUME AHEAD 52 PERCENT Equity open interest sets new records CHICAGO (June 7, 2004)? The Options Industry Council (OIC) announced today that year to date equity options volume of 467,016,214 contracts is 52.17 percent greater than the same time period last year with 306,899,128 contracts. May equity options volume of 81,011,985 contracts (35,564,446 puts and 45,447,539 calls) rose 18.26 percent vs. May 2003 equity options volume of 68,502,050 contracts (27,820,376 puts and 40,681,674 calls). This represents the largest May equity options volume ever. May 2004 equity open interest rose 26.54 percent to 125,555,189 contracts vs. May 2003 month-end equity open interest of 99,220,352 contracts. This is a new month-end record. The previous record was set in April 2004 with 125,048,790 contracts. Equity open interest also set a new one-day high on May 21 with 142,514,240 contracts. This surpasses the previous record set on May 20 with 141,366,873 contracts. Equity open interest, the total number of options contracts not yet exercised or allowed to expire, is seen as an indication of longer-term investing in these instruments. "With this month?s strength in equity options volume and equity open interest, the march toward record heights continues," said Paul Stevens, President, OIC. "We?re looking forward to a robust summer of options volume and hope that during this time, investors will continue their options education." Average daily equity options volume of 4,050,599 contracts rose 24.17 percent compared to May 2003 with 3,262,002 contracts. The highest trading day for May occurred on May 10 when 5,364,396 equity options contracts exchanged hands. About OIC OIC is a non-profit association funded by the American Stock Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, International Securities Exchange, Pacific Exchange, Philadelphia Stock Exchange and The Options Clearing Corporation. OIC?s free resources include: The Options Industry Services call center at 1-888-OPTIONS, an educational Web site at www.888options.com, evening seminars throughout the continental United States and Canada, instructional videos and educational literature and software. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted June 8, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Hi Hiding Bear et Al. I might try to post my SMegH (Semiconductor) comments here for the wilder [sic]audience. I normally post over on GoldStool. Welcome. That sounds good to me. Are you still in Indonesia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 HP is entering the flat screen TV and computer monitor markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 8:13AM Countrywide ave. daily loans fell 39% in May (CFC) by Tomi Kilgore NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Countrywide Financial (CFC) said average daily loan applications for May fell 39 percent from year-earlier levels to $2 billion due primarily to the higher interest rate environment. The number of applications declined 5 percent. Loan fundings for the month fell 20 percent to $32 billion, while purchase activity rose 43 percent to $15 billion. The mortgage banker's servicing portfolio surpassed the $700 billion mark in May, and has increased by $600 million a day on average. The stock closed Monday up $3.85 at $67.45, and reached a 52-week high of $67.99 in intraday trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 8:07am 06/08/04 [CFC] COUNTRYWIDE SAYS HOME PURCHASE FUNDINGS 'ROBUST' 8:08am 06/08/04 [CFC] COUNTRYWIDE REPORTS $50B PIPELINE OF APPS IN PROCESS Currently -1.45, so much for "ROBUST" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 What follows is just a copy and paste from an e-mail I received from the OIC. The link to the original source is in the text below. With the recent disscussion on the P/C ratio, I thought it would be interesting to see this derivite trade from a broad perspective. Highlights are mine. OIC ANNOUNCES YEAR TO DATE VOLUME AHEAD 52 PERCENT Equity open interest sets new records CHICAGO (June 7, 2004)? The Options Industry Council (OIC) announced today that year to date equity options volume of 467,016,214 contracts is 52.17 percent greater than the same time period last year with 306,899,128 contracts. May equity options volume of 81,011,985 contracts (35,564,446 puts and 45,447,539 calls) rose 18.26 percent vs. May 2003 equity options volume of 68,502,050 contracts (27,820,376 puts and 40,681,674 calls). This represents the largest May equity options volume ever. May 2004 equity open interest rose 26.54 percent to 125,555,189 contracts vs. May 2003 month-end equity open interest of 99,220,352 contracts. This is a new month-end record. The previous record was set in April 2004 with 125,048,790 contracts. Equity open interest also set a new one-day high on May 21 with 142,514,240 contracts. This surpasses the previous record set on May 20 with 141,366,873 contracts. Equity open interest, the total number of options contracts not yet exercised or allowed to expire, is seen as an indication of longer-term investing in these instruments. "With this month?s strength in equity options volume and equity open interest, the march toward record heights continues," said Paul Stevens, President, OIC. "We?re looking forward to a robust summer of options volume and hope that during this time, investors will continue their options education." Average daily equity options volume of 4,050,599 contracts rose 24.17 percent compared to May 2003 with 3,262,002 contracts. The highest trading day for May occurred on May 10 when 5,364,396 equity options contracts exchanged hands. About OIC OIC is a non-profit association funded by the American Stock Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, International Securities Exchange, Pacific Exchange, Philadelphia Stock Exchange and The Options Clearing Corporation. OIC?s free resources include: The Options Industry Services call center at 1-888-OPTIONS, an educational Web site at www.888options.com, evening seminars throughout the continental United States and Canada, instructional videos and educational literature and software. Very interesting piece.... thx for posting it... I like this part: "Paul Stevens, President, OIC. "We?re looking forward to a robust summer of options volume and hope that during this time, investors will continue their options education." Which should read: "Paul Stevens, President, OIC. "We're looking forward to a robust summer of speculator ass-whipping and individual investor rear-end-reaming, with record option volume, and hope that during this time, investors will continue to buy Love Lube and bend over in an effort to continue their options education and make an otherwise dull volume market easier to endure for us option sellers" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesun Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 The trip that bears have taken lately is ... well... like crossing the sun - a trip that Venus is also taking today. Thank you for the honor thesun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Hi Hiding Bear et Al. I might try to post my SMegH (Semiconductor) comments here for the wilder [sic]audience. I normally post over on GoldStool. Welcome. That sounds good to me. Are you still in Indonesia? Masih (Still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optical Rectitus Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Morning all-Lord Stanley still travels on an American passport !! Congrats Tampa 'Bolts' or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted June 8, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 One good thing about Reagan, despite the message the media is pushing this week, is that he understood runaway budget deficts were not good for the country. It is often overlooked that Reagan reversed a very liberal tax cut early in his term within one year with a significant tax increase. Budget deficit up $56 billion over last year From CongressDaily The Cungressional Budget Office has reported that budget deficit estimates totaled about $347 billion for the first eight months of fiscal 2004, which is $56 billion more than the deficit reported for the same time period last year. The reason for the increase, CBO said late last week, was that while revenues have increased by about 2 percent, outlays have increased by 6 percent. Revenues increased by about $24 billion; outlays increased by $80 billion. Corporate income tax receipts were up about $30 billion, while social insurance taxes were higher by about $12 billion than over the same period last year. Individual income tax receipts were down about $16 billion. PS Take care there Thorass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 8, 2004 Report Share Posted June 8, 2004 Morning Crew- Symbolism, coincidence or....Rons Funeral is Friday-6-11 and of course 6 is 9 turned upside down. A huge window opens at the Bell for 75 minutes, yesterday the signals inverted all session. I doubt they will today-I have orders in to buy a handle of July 1140 puts on any break of 1138 or July 1145's on any touch of 1145. Now I wait to see where I get filled. Max pain for options expiration is 1100-1110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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