Henny Penny Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 In the case of the SPX, the settlement value is based on the opening price of each of the 500 stocks in that index on the third Friday of each month. The last trading day for SPX options is the Thursday prior to the Friday expiration. Note - it is OPENING price. So we are past that point as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Europe dropping more HGX trying to lead today...Right SOX BKX XBD.X RUT NDX in denial of the bull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 NDX futures 1400..here we are at the pivot line once again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Sorry no link----no reprint anywhere  =DJ THE SKEPTIC: Politicians Take Note: OPEC Can't Cool Oil By Stella Farrington A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN   LONDON (Dow Jones)--Desperate pleas for OPEC to pump more oil are not only futile, but serve to perpetuate the myth that high prices are a temporary problem the producer's group can easily fix.  The sooner it's recognized that high oil prices are not going to go away overnight, and that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is largely helpless to alleviate the problem, the sooner politicians and industry can hammer out a different solution.  Certainly there's reason to be alarmed by current prices. At $40 a barrel, the oil price is inflationary and will eventually choke global economic growth.  Consumers are being hit by soaring gasoline prices, which are at all-time highs in the U.S. and fast-approaching the record of four years ago in the U.K. - a period marked by fuel riots.  So it's easy to see why panicked politicians are turning to OPEC and demanding what has always been available in the past: more oil. But this time it's difficult to see where extra production will come from.  Almost all of the 11 countries in OPEC are pumping at maximum capacity. The only country with significant spare capacity is Saudi Arabia, which currently pumps more than 8 million barrels a day and claims it can hike output sustainably to 10 million b/d day quickly.  In a careful PR exercise last week, Saudi Arabia urged the group to increase their output target by 1.5 million barrels a day to 25 million b/d. And oil markets are gearing up for OPEC to discuss a move at the International Energy Forum in Amsterdam this weekend, where pressure on OPEC will be immense. This is followed on June 3 by an official OPEC meeting in Beirut.  Trouble is, OPEC is already producing some 2 million b/d over its official target, so the Saudi proposal wouldn't bring any extra oil to the market. Even so, politicians continue to believe the reassuring canard that OPEC has plenty of spare capacity lying idle that it can call on whenever it pleases.  And it suits OPEC to maintain the impression it can open the spigots at the drop of a hat. The last thing it wants is for people to sense an oil shortage looming, even only a temporary one, as that could lead to energy conservation and a longer-term decline in demand.  So OPEC fends off the calls for greater output by blaming high prices on futures market speculators, concerns over supply security from the Middle East, and the weak U.S. dollar.  Speculation is a factor, lifting prices perhaps by as much as $10 a barrel, but even if every speculator bailed out oil would still be over $30. And in any case there's little chance of speculators leaving now, ahead of the high-demand summer season.  Even given the dollar's fall over the last two years, an oil price over $40 looks expensive. And with the price this high, what producer wouldn't be pumping at full capacity to capitalize on it? Politicians don't need to ask producers to pump more - they've got good enough reason already to do their utmost.  And there's no point in looking outside of OPEC for a quick fix. In the pursuit of profits for shareholders, and with prices muted until recently, oil majors have underinvested in exploration over the past decade, with the result that production from non-OPEC countries will soon enter decline.  Even Russia, currently contending with Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer, can't do much. Even if it could increase production in the future at the same heady 10% rate of the last two years, experts warn its transport and export infrastructure is near to capacity.  All this means the supply side isn't the place to look for a way to bring down prices. Instead, government and business need to focus on the demand side - a logical option anyway, as this is in their control.  In a high-price environment, the corporation which takes simple energy conservation measures aimed at eliminating waste, will gain a notable financial edge. Dow Jones Newswires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Rumors of Saudi Govt collapse making the rounds. Sounds like BS to me. Not exactly the kind of thing tradres would here of first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 "The last thing it wants is for people to sense an oil shortage looming, even only a temporary one, as that could lead to energy conservation and a longer-term decline in demand." I have never understood this argument. A decline in oil demand imples thaere are readily available alternative s that can be turned on at short notice. This is false. The reason OPEC makes conciliatory noises is because they are afraid of being militarily attacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Jusy may have to buy some calls on oil! They turned it .25 over the gap fill keystrokes will have their hands full today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Twig- the p/c ratio last nite was 1.21 which is benign and today it will be lot less due to O/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 In the case of the SPX, the settlement value is based on the opening price of each of the 500 stocks in that index on the third Friday of each month. The last trading day for SPX options is the Thursday prior to the Friday expiration.Note - it is OPENING price. So we are past that point as of now. Thats why the tend to jam the futures on opex days. In this case holders of calls need to choose whether or not to purchase stock now that there call has expired. Since call holders are generally bullish they tend to replace exposure with stock. Â If many decide to purchase then that creates an imbalance that will cause the stock to gap. The benefit acrues to the brokers who were buying futures in the premarket who are now able to convert those futures into stock that is siold to their clients on the open. Hence the opening whoosh. And now the vacuum left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieo Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Is everyone leaning long on oil? I thought this was a contrarian board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 It is Snowing out there somewhere  +DJ Tsy's Snow: US Economy On 'Strong And Positive' Course *DJ Tsy Snow: High Energy Prices 'Extraordinarily Unwelcome' *DJ Snow: Energy Prices To Be 'Much On Our Minds' At G7 Mtg *DJ Snow: Current Energy Prices 'Harmful' To US Econ Growth *DJ Snow: Higher Interest Rates Won't Choke Off US Recovery *DJ Snow: 'Have To Anticipate' Some Rise In Interest Rates *DJ Snow Says Overall US Inflation 'Still Quite Low' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 DJ US Taylor: G8 Statement May Not Feature Forex Language -2  Taylor also said he isn't concerned about the impact higher official interest rates will have on U.S. consumers, whose spending accounts for about two thirds of gross domestic product.  "There's a lot of reasons for the consumer to continue to spend and be part of the recovery," Taylor said, noting that the rapid pace of job creation is boosting consumer confidence. In any case, even if rates go up a bit, they will still be low by historical standards, Taylor noted. Rest of story on Dow Jones Newswires  [Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs John Taylor] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Ant Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Tying to defend thin red line on SOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 Window opening now for 30 minute-Helmets on, buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted May 21, 2004 Report Share Posted May 21, 2004 9950 dow futures key level now..bottom of the ribbon on multiple short term timeframes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.