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Crash Coming?


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KWave pls excuse my ignorance. But I am looking at both charts & I was wondering that IF they were similar WHERE WOULD WE BE in comparison to the 1987 setup..i.e do you expect 1 more weak rally attempt if the comparison is valid ?

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The shape of the MACD would lead me to believe that we are in the acceleration phase right now..any crash would need to come right away..or most likely not at all.

 

Also, new lows are getting extreme now, indicating a significant a momentum point is here or right around the corner..my guess is within a couple of days, so kinda now or never, methinks.

 

If we don't crash, we could still have a grinding chop lower, just as we ground higher in April of '03 with an extreme number of new highs for quite some time..but we need to break at least 10K, and stay under.

 

The alternative scenario is that Friday was the low close..and that the market explodes upward from here after bouncing off 10K one more time..as we do have a pretty decent divergence on the daily MACD if we do not crash here..the bear case needs to see some serious weakness to develop right now, as this area looks to be a major long term pivot point..

 

My gut says over the edge we go, especially with the destructive impulse action in the homebuilders on Friday..I will be watching Euroland tonight for clues..

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:o According to Bob, this rolling crash is just getting legs!

 

PRECHTER'S LATEST FORECAST

 

By Robert Prechter, Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall

 

May 10, 2004

 

The stock market began a breadth collapse on Thursday (May 6). The major averages resisted the decline until about 1 p.m. yesterday (Friday) and then began to slip. Since the February top, the wave count in the Dow has progressed to the point at which it is entering the middle portion, the crash phase. The Dow had only a moderate down day on Friday, but the historically low advance/decline ratio of 1:12 unequivocally supports this wave labeling.

 

A panic should set in, gather momentum for a week and a half and end no earlier than May 19-20, at the bottom of the current 8-week cycle. For a number of reasons, the setup here is similar to that of October 1987, with May 5, 2004 coinciding with October 5, 1987. The main difference is that the market is not in a Primary degree correction but has resumed a Supercycle degree bear market, so the end of the crash will not form a major buying opportunity, just a temporary low. This bear market will generate multiple panics before it?s over.

 

 

From Best of Prechter at Doom & Gloom..

 

:blink:

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  • 2 weeks later...

But perhaps not for long.

 

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