Guest Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Meanwhile in silver the burning question is have the commercials extracted their pound of flesh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 More info on oil here: Discussion on Oil Reserves It is a PDF and not a small one. From what I can tell, they state the worlds total oil reserves at around 1.05 trillion barrels. We are currently burning around 80 million barrels a day with projections of 120 million by 2010 and 100 million by 2010. That is 36.5 billion barrels a year on the 2010 figure. That is 28.76 years from 2010. The article says that oil reserves will last between 36 and 70 years depending on how much we use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Possible LT EW count for silver: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Colonel Bubbleberry, in a somber mood, pauses in the cool gray of the pre-dawn morning and fastens his gaze upon the Permanent Plateau. There, among the tattered ruins of harsh recent battle, with bears still gorging on their recent prey, the Colonel's gaze becomes steeled with comprehension as he determines a course of action. He draws upon his vast repetoire of battle lore and, of course, as has been his trend of late, chooses what he thinks will do the job. Bubbleberry unzips his trousers.....never...ever....turn down a chance to pee! ....Bubbleberry, resplendant with renewed vigor and a now empty bladder, contemplates the imminent annihilation of the bears on the plane....presently gorging with wild abandon. If they only knew what was about to hit them.... Into the fro' boyz.... Midnight Moonlight Wild Horses ......pluckin Throw Out The Lifeline .....Throw Out The Lifeline, 4/30/92 (Edwin Smith Ufford) Played by Jerry in the JGB with Melvin Seals. Based on a hymn by Edwin Smith Ufford, apparently written after observing a lifesaving drill at Point Alllerton near Boston, Massachusetts in 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Tweaked indicator view: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 dear Shorty: as jickiss comprehends events, (But jickiss must, and does, defer to HyperTiger, for sure in this regard).... Volker decided to create a Bull Market in Bonds, by taking interest rates higher than nominal price inflation, for a period long enough to cause real pain, and to lower prices in such things as real estate.... certain Wall Street Types told a story, after the Event was in place, that went like this: the president got mad, and called Volker into his office, and said, "Paul, you gotta stop this inflation, because, if you don't, then a Cadillac will cost over $100,000 dollars in a few years." Reagan, however, never could get the spending stopped, but, in a "rock, scissors, paper game," the bond bull market was created. The bond bull market was the most powerful event of our lives, but it was and is still virtually invisible to the masses.... as HyperTiger has explained, More Money has been made by compounding Bonds, (long, call-protected us treasuries, on Margin, than in virtually anything else that can be named, with the exceptions of, mabe, Newport Beach Real Estate and certain Art Works)....and please note, by the way, that the Cadillac never went above $100,000 dollars (due to outsourcing (Mexico, etc), in part, plus the destructive effect of Volkers work of art on the Unions....they be disappearing, for sure, with manufacturing...the only Unions that count now are Firefighters, police and prison guards). this is the movie that is about to be run backwards. or not..... if rates start to zoom back up, what will really happen????? it has been mentioned on this board, jickiss seems to recall, that the middle class in going to be in giant trouble..... ever sleep in, perhaps, a Ranch-type house, near or at ground level, in the early spring, with the windows partly open for air flow in a nice neighborhood, where the probability of a break-in is .000001???? then, it is 3:45am. the sound of a cat is heard...faintly, at first...but then, much louder and deeper than it should be. Someone else hears it too, and says, "That sounds like a cat, but it does not sound right.....it just sounds waaay too big." And you answer, "Yeah, it sounds like it is about 12 feet high." Then the someone else laughs, for a second, and then just stops the laugh. it is cut off. You think about the impossible....and then the cat sound stops. Nobody dares to look out the window.... This feels like where we all are at this moment. regards, jickiss I don't know the distribution method but I doubt it will be helicopters more like B-52's carpet bombing credit cards...The medium of exchange is debt so they would have to give away debt for free... Come and get your debt...here it is, just sign on the dotted line... When we reach the infinite debt inflation point it will take infinite debt inflationary potential to sustain the system...and prevent implosion... The inflation in the 70's had more to do with the invention of the magnetic strip and ABM's in the late 60's and the mass mailing of credit cards in during the 70's then anything else...The primary reason? The US ran out of oil...The Nasdaq showed up in 71 and the federal Home loan corporation...showed up in 71 also to help suck up debt inflation. Note that silver was taken out of monetary curculation in 64 and the Gold window was closed in 71 because? The US could not support itself anymore...It's economic system was broken...It had to borrow to survive...the fractional reserve of gold and silver was shriking in realtion to the debt being created by consumer consumption of debt...The medium of exchage was being converted into debt rapidly... Where monetary (Debt inflation) comes from...in a nut shell... A consumer uses current income (mostly previously created debt out of thin air with compound interest attached at the request of the consumer or another consumer in the system by a commercial bank) as a basis for a request for a commercial bank to create new debt out of thin air with compound interest attached which is a consumers future income... so the entire money supply or medium of exchange is new debt created out of thin air by commercial banks at the request of the consumers using previously created debt... Debt backing debt... The current debt supply is 37 trillion dollars...A debt backed by fractionally reserved debt bank is basically insolvent from the first second of operation...The only way to sustain a curculating medium of exchange and prevent implosion is to perpetually inflate debt... The US has been caught in a leveraging of leverage or inflate or die march to doomsday for just under 50 years...and we are approaching or we are at maximum potential... maximum potential is where all the consumers have basicly absorbed as much debt as possible and although they want to, it is impossible to suck up any more...they either can't request any more debt to be manufactured by commercial banks or they refuse to... Without debt inflation the money supply which is composed of debt begins to deflate (default and be written off)... The FED has engineered rates lower to sustain the required amount of debt inflation needed to overpower the underlying debt deflationary potential and prevent implosion for 50 years... the last 23 by dropping rates on average of 83 basis points/ year, there are 100 left... The above chart shows debt growth or the fluctuations in debt inflationary potential...right now it is starting to turn...down...I also pointed out two other down turns that produced some yucky results... Now if Buddy is right... the authorities are going to start forcing credit on people some way...it does not matter... To sustain the system that way would produce a doomsday spike which would collapse after a few months due to there not being enough computational power to account for it...It would take longer to figure out the cost of a loaf of bread then the price was rising... I doubt the FED is thinking of or can pull it off and it would only buy months at most... Maybe there is some doomsday comet coming...reguardless...economic doomsday is coming one way or the other...the jig is up... A few months? a year? big deal...It's all over... the debt supply will hyperdeflate and the division of labor will suffer a sickeningly mind blowing collapse... Calling this Great depression 2 is a joke...More like the Great Oblivion... Time to face the facts...the entire population has been socially engineered into morons that are floating inside of the greatest debt inflationary self delusional bubble in history and after growing for the past 45-50 years is about to pop...(Note the debt inflationary self delusional buble that popped in 1929 took 14 years to form) Don't worry the helicopters are coming...Insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Another stoolieism for the ages. The Great White Candlestick. :lol: Last week it was End's "News is noise, but sometimes it's a trigger." You guys make it easy for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 WHAT CAN I SAY Goodbye nasty goodbye. Goodbye bonds goodbye goodbye real estate (the residential kind any way) good bye Still think gold and silver are just reacting down ot 200DMA's. Re Kipling Wrote a poem about mesopotamia (ie IRAQ) that is eerily relevant: MESOPOTAMIA THEY shall not return to us, the resolute, the young? ? The eager and whole-hearted whom we gave: But the men who left them thriftily to die in their own dung, ? ? Shall they come with years and honour to the grave? They shall not return to us, the strong men coldly slain ? ? In sight of help denied from day to day: But the men who edged their agonies and chid them in their pain, ? ? Are they too strong and wise to put away? Our dead shall not return to us while Day and Night divide? ? ? Never while the bars of sunset hold. But the idle-minded overlings who quibbled while they died, ? ? Shall they thrust for high employments as of old? Shall we only threaten and be angry for an hour? ? ? When the storm is ended shall we find How softly but how swiftly they have sidled back to power ? ? By the favour and contrivance of their kind? Even while they soothe us, while they promise large amends, ? ? Even while they make a show of fear, Do they call upon their debtors, and take council with their friends, ? ? To confirm and re-establish each career? Their lives cannot repay us?their death could not undo? ? ? The shame that they have laid upon our race. But the slothfulness that wasted and the arrogance that slew, ? ? Shall we leave it unabated in its place? Guess theirs hope for George and Rumy yet. He also wrote a wonderful poem about his son lost on the western front in WWI called "My Boy Jack." 'Have you news of my boy Jack?'Not this tide. 'When d'you think that he'll come back?' Not with this wind blowing, and this tide. 'Has any one else had word of him?' Not this tide. For what is sunk will hardly swim, Not with this wind blowing, and this tide. 'Oh, dear, what comfort can I find?' None this tide, Nor any tide, Except he did not shame his kind - Not even with that wind blowing, and that tide. Then hold your head up all the more, This tide, And every tide; Because he was the son you bore, And gave to that wind blowing and that tide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 8, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 What sommodity is the graph contained in this article? A sweet pattern.http://www.elliottwave.com/features/defaul...=ff&a=1044&t=pm So, which commodity is it??? Looks like another item under "Forced Liquidation" by greedy HedgeHogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 8, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Here's another "double top" begging to be shorted. Beans in the Teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 8, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 "Beans in the Teens" is about to get clotheslined. Here's proof. BG is the biggest soybean play, and its definitely topped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Homeowners Dig Deep to Pay for Remodeling . . . In the past year, prices have skyrocketed for the main types of panels used in home construction. The cost of a 4-by-8-foot plywood sheet has doubled to $15.36, while particle board of that size now goes for $15.65 -- nearly three times year-ago levels, said Michael Carliner, an economist at the National Association of Home Builders in Washington. Collectively, price spikes for wood and metals could add $5,000 to $7,000 to the cost of building an average-sized home, according to Carliner. A homebuilder generally can pass on higher costs to a buyer, but a homeowner who wants to renovate has no choice but to absorb them. "Remodeling is more sensitive to material costs," Carliner said. "It's more elastic. People may be likely to put it off." Sales of plywood and other wood materials have remained brisk, however, as both homeowners and builders have taken advantage of low interest rates to borrow money to pay for their projects. . . . Still, Judy Haselton aimed to stick close to the half-million dollar budget for expanding her Amagansett house. She and her husband, a managing director at a Wall Street investment bank, decided to scale down the addition to 1,800 square feet from the originally planned 2,000. She also cut down on expensive custom-design tiles and other items, shopping around for cheaper, but still elegant, store-line products instead. "It took more work on my part," Haselton said. But even after the cost-cutting moves, the project still came in 15 percent over budget. "We are fairly happy," she said. "The compromises didn't make a whole lot of difference." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 Missed this one. dear Shorty: as jickiss comprehends events, (But jickiss must, and does, defer to HyperTiger, for sure in this regard).... Volker decided to create a Bull Market in Bonds, by taking interest rates higher than nominal price inflation, for a period long enough to cause real pain, and to lower prices in such things as real estate.... So history would appear to say. But was Volker really the sort or hard-nosed, visionary central banker mythology dictates or was he merely putting on a brave face while sheepishly beholden to the market? Like everybody else in that position? Let the chart turns decide, I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 "Beans in the Teens" is about to get clotheslined. Here's proof. BG is the biggest soybean play, and its definitely topped out. Iguess having lived through the silver debacle we are all a little sensitive. However, I'll say this. there is drought in many parts of the grain growing world. If supply of beans is thereby reduced this is bad for BG but good for bean prices - because BG makes money from the volume of beans processed. Also you can eat beans - as for BG it is a figment of current social culture with no substance to it -driven hither and thither by moods, liquidity , fumble managers etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted May 8, 2004 Report Share Posted May 8, 2004 that oil chart could break down as easily as up, and it looks like its a long ways down if it decides to go that way i agree with mark, look at the action on the OIH & OSX. dont know if it goes to $30 or not... the shadow behind the move would be positive economic impact of $10 reduction in bl of oil. May 5 ? Bloomberg (Bruce Blythe): ?New York gasoline futures rose for an eighth day as concern about summer fuel shortages offset a report of a bigger-than-expected increase in supplies... ?Refinery capacity is short, and I think the only way that we?re going to see the gasoline problem solved is with demand reduction from price,? said Mike Busby, manager of oil and refined-products trading for Northville Industries Corp?. ?In other words, high enough prices to significantly reduce demand, and we?re not there yet.? (Taken from Noland, last night)... Old Economics of Supply and Demand. If supply is fixed (here by limited refining capacity), then the only way price is reduced is by demand reduction. Yes, this is gasoline, not crude. Even so, this rate-limiting, capacity-limiting bottleneck largely insulates oil $/bl from a downside drop. There have been no new refineries built in nearly 30 years in the US; world refining capacity has been unable to keep up with demand. (Google search). If Bennie (the Dealer) and I (hypothetically, please) have a much sought after cocaine crop, and Bennie's maxed out 'cause every dude in the hood want's to get in with Bennie, what incentive/market mechanism is there that will cause me, the producer, to reduce my price? Everyone's talking like its '87. Being the dinosaur that I am, I'm thinking like '74. Bears may get lucky and get two..two...two crashes in one. ("double your pleasure, double your fun..") Parenthetically, was it in '74 that Coke came out with "I'd like to teach the world to sing?". As a social trend afficianado, I think Sunbeam needs to come out with "I'd like to feed the world some toast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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