wndysrf Posted May 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 "The market conflict of the century will be played out in gold next week." - Jim Sinclair Fundamentals or Technicals - Which Will Win? Sunday, May 09, 2004, 2:36:00 AM?EST http://www.jsmineset.com/ The reason gold is going down big is because Sinclair was stupid enough to take on The Matrix publicly in a bold challenge. As expected, he and all the Gold Bugs are getting run over big time. Can't fight toe to toe with The Matrix unless you have trillions in liquidity to challenge the 1000-story JPM/One Derivatives Tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 "The market conflict of the century will be played out in gold next week." - Jim Sinclair Fundamentals or Technicals - Which Will Win? Sunday, May 09, 2004, 2:36:00 AM?EST http://www.jsmineset.com/ The reason gold is going down big is because Sinclair was stupid enough to take on The Matrix publicly in a bold challenge. As expected, he and all the Gold Bugs are getting run over big time. Can't fight toe to toe with The Matrix unless you have trillions in liquidity to challenge the 1000-story JPM/One Derivatives Tower. Greenspan and bernanke have on various occassions revealed that they do monitor gold prices as an indicator of inflation. While concern was with deflation they were comfortable letting gold go up. All of a sudden inflation is back and making headlines. I have no doubt that all out efforts will be made to supress gold to make sure ?nflationary expectations"( another Greenspan favorite) does'nt take hold. The gold and silver markets are very tiny and thin and easily manipulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 The trouble with the theory on bond yields dropping back is that the Fed's primary dealers, the Gang of 23, have built up the largest short position in history after Al gave them the go ahead. I doubt this will end any time soon.? I doubt that the Fed even has the ability to stop it, even if it wanted to. If the Fed tries to engineer long rates down by buying bonds, there will be more than enough sellers happy to oblige on any price uptick. Bond yields can drop all they wan for whatever reason...You still need a enough bagholders signing on the dotted line to support it all...rates caved in Japan in search of volume and none was ever found to this day...since then The US has exported debt inflation there (and the rest of the planet) to support them...and now the US is caving in... Sorry I'm a poorboy and haven't renewed the anals, sorry, since I feel the jig is basicly up, the final gasp is here to unfold how it unfolds...But if what you are saying is true, Doc...about the massive pressure still to come in rising rates...It won't be long... The red line rocketing up is the destroyer of all the hopes and dreams that compose the current delusion... 5.5 will blow the line off the charts... Looking at your chart, history suggests that the red % change line will peak and then quickly revert. Independent of the absolute level of the rate of interest. Do you have a quantitative timeline for "the jib is basically up"? Any day now within the next few months...the system will cave in... maybe Monday..maybe Tuesday...Maybe one final magic trick to send us zooming straight up then straight down to oblivion... It is called the end of a 50 year old debt inflationary self delusional bubble...with a hyperdeflationary implosion of the debt supply and a sickening mindboggling collapse of the division of labor make work project Enron accounting ponzi scheme known as the global economy climax... Note the bubble that popped in 1929 took 14-16 years to inflate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Supermodel tracking stock went up on Friday on huge volume. (Can't see the 30+ million shares traded on Fri. unless you click on the chart.) Watch it carefully. Money Flow Index and stochastics finally turning back up. During the 2002 bear market, the huge bounces were always tipped off by relative strength in the Soap Actress Screamers a day or two before the bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Thanks for the OIL analysis Doc. Time to buy a scooter or even start using my bicycle for visits to the neighborhood. When I HAVE TO buy a new car I'll seriously consider Toyota Echo or Prius. I don't care how they look. An Ant, I am looking at a Corolla myself...this oil thing isn't going away anytime soon. Here is a chart on gasoline from last year. 2 year chart on gas in San Diego In my opinion, the 3 months of high prices were a warning to all. I think we are going back to the 70's economically. We now drive vehicles so large that the people that drive them can't even maneuver them in and out of parking lots! However, Mark's ideas are interesting. Fighting the Matrix is very difficult. The Matrix could jack oil up, wipe out the shorts, then oil could tank. Ive about given up trying to find a way to make money in the market. Just seems like everyone is against me trying to steal every penny I put in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Politics matter to the markets right now. We'll get to see which force is more powerful this week...TA or PR. While all of the conditions are nearly in place for a bounce, so too are all of the conditions nearly in place for a full blown crash.? I was wrong about the Friday jobs number.? I never would have believed that they would put out a number that would blow up the bond and stock markets.? My assumption is that Bush ordered a strong jobs number at all costs so as to support his campaign theme...and this is what he got.? I'm assuming he expects Big Al to stick save it with a little more voodoo intervention magic...only this time, it just may not work.? The Boys are running out of hiding places...fast.? Sell Mortimer, Sell!!!? The Semis are the key at this point...they're set to run and if they break support...LOB! This Iraqi prisoner abuse scandle is as politically significant to Bush's chances for re-election as anything ever imagined.? This makes Clinton's Lewinsky scandle look like a joke by comparison...and that led to impeachment proceedings.? Our country will be seriously damaged for years, or more likely for decades, in ways yet to be known or calculated. The markets don't like the prospect of a Kerry Presidency, and with each passing day, as our country becomes increasingly bogged down in this generation's Vietnam...and more revelations come to light in graphic detail depicting US troops as thugs and terrorists in ther own right, Bush will lose middle-America AND the Religious right...AND the markets will crash...AND the housing sector will implode...AND Bush will lose the election. Consumer confidence will be down more than 15% by election day. This news is not just noise.? The spinning plates are hitting the floor. According to Representative Tom Cole, R-Okla;? "This was a political and public relations Pearl Harbor." According to Rumsfeld:? "This thing is Radioactive" The technicals look really, really bad. As bad as I have ever seen them. This administration could care less about the bond market. It cares only about voters in the heartland, who have no idea what the bond market it. Most Bush voters live in trailer parks, and attend evangelical services for 12 hours on Sunday, and 4 hours Wednesday night. They do not own stocks or bonds. Bush always plays to them. The big old money is selling now because they have been around long enough to know a bad deal when they see it. And these markets are bad deals. As bad as the Iraqi abuse scandal is, and it is probably the most horrifying scandal I can remember since My Lai, Bush's voters in the heartland do not care. The same people who hated him before still hate him. The same people who loved him before still love him. The swing voters, the soccer moms, who have just refied their mortgages for the fourth time at the lowest rates in history, will decide when they enter the voting booth on an intuitive feeling of unease about this adminstration. The young suburbanites who just bought an overpriced McMansion spending the last penny of their income on an interest only adjustable rate mortage will decide when they get a notice in August and September and October that their mortgage payment is going up $200 a month. They will tell their friends who will be facing the same exectioner's sword, only later. The markets have no feelings. They do not care who is president. The best market we ever had was under a Democrat. The worst markets we have had in the last century were all under Republicans. Markets do not think, they do not care, they do not evaluate political prospects. They do not discount the future. They simply reflect changes in liquidity. Money goes where people think they can get the highest return. Politics, war, scandal, yes, even the economy, do not matter. It just appears that way because liquidity drives all three. If Bush is defeated, it will be because the liquidity has dried up and has taken the economy with it. It will be because the soccer moms sense in their guts that something ain't quite right. They got it right last time. Gore won the popular vote. But there will have to be a lot more of them getting it right this time. Otherwise, Bush will lose again, and be reappointed again. The market will not care, because only one thing matters. Liquidity. courtesy of Marty Robins All day i face the barren waste without the taste of water Cool water Oh Dan and I with throats burned dry And souls that cry for water Cool Clear water Keep Amovin' Dan don't you listen to em dan Hes a devil not a man He spreads the burnin sand with water Dan can you see, that big green tree Where the water's runnin free And it s waitin there for you and me The nights are cool and i'm a fool Each star's a pool of water Cool clear water COOL CLEAR WATER beardrech :cry: The hell with Coors Blatz Old Milwaukee and Pabst Blu Ribbon--give me (said the thirsty bonker) some real liquidity-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Hey Guys, Nice to be back from vacation and catching up on my Stool reading. I found this article to be particularly thoughtful with respect to interest rates and their future direction: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Well worth the read for those of you, like myself, who view this increase in rates as unsustainable and unwarrented by economic fundamentals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 The message these leaders are learning from Iraq is the "superpower"is infact quite limited militarily. 150000 troops, demoralized, overworked and poorly led is about it. political will to take brutal genghis Khan style actions also somewhat limited.This may be another one of those ""unassailable facts"" like high productivity, low inflation , unrivalled military supremacy is constantly repeated as if it is a proven fact in contradiction to what one's lying eyes are seeing. Not to mention the fact that the world subsidizes the U.S military by accumulating U.S. currency and treasuries. If the U.S government had to fund their military exclusively through taxation, that bloated organization would soon be put on a starvation diet. The world didn't mind supporting the U.S in it's efforts to crush the Russian economy, but is now begining to wonder if the U.S is still worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeakOil Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Here is a long term chart of oil futures. The cmaps are 45 and 47 on the four year and one year cycles. The long term cmap appears to be around 51, but there is a lot of latitude in that number. It could be as low as 47, or as high as 59. One thing seems sure. This does not appear ready for a top any time soon. A contrarian position that somehow oil is overpriced is not warranted. This apparent double top will be broken. WORD Doc. Yup yup yup. In the short run anything can and often does happen. Funnymentals be damned. So to all of you just bustin' a gut to short crude, bonne chance. Better be nimble though. Candid interview of Matt Simmons in DC on April 27 concerning, among other topics, the 'trust us' attitude of Saudi Aramco. Hmm, seeing as Oil is the drug that keeps modern civilization running, that attitude should rightfully raise a few eyebrows... "WHADYA MEAN TRUST ME?? There's either no problem or Katie bar the door" http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/200....2004-04-27.ram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 In the short run anything can and often does happen. Funnymentals be damned. So to all of you just bustin' a gut to short crude, bonne chance. Better be nimble though. Wall Street has been forecasting an oil price collapse for 28 straight months, and you're not afraid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWD Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 "The market conflict of the century will be played out in gold next week." - Jim Sinclair Fundamentals or Technicals - Which Will Win? Sunday, May 09, 2004, 2:36:00 AM?EST http://www.jsmineset.com/ The reason gold is going down big is because Sinclair was stupid enough to take on The Matrix publicly in a bold challenge. As expected, he and all the Gold Bugs are getting run over big time. Can't fight toe to toe with The Matrix unless you have trillions in liquidity to challenge the 1000-story JPM/One Derivatives Tower. Sinclair really taken that seriously in the "corridors of power"? I'd have guessed he'd be written off as a "nobody" with a miniscule following. I like the "sweep inflation under the rug so nobody notices it" hypothesis better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 The flaw in Hypertiger's brontosaurus theory,the "money" has no value,furthermore,it(and it's masters) can do anything it wants to do because of that FACTOID, Physical Gold Advocates fear not. Gold historically has done ITS BEST during a deflation! Yes deflation. When all other assets were spiraling down in value because defaults soared and collateral sales pressured the prices of all hard assets, gold alone increased its value. It has no liabilities (no one to default) and is portable to destinations without domestic deflation. See Professor Roy Jastram?s The Golden Constant (Wiley & Sons, 1978) for a 416 year history of gold under four major deflationary periods of the past. If you are a bit lazy or pressed for time, simply recall that gold in the 1930?s went from $20 to $35 during that deflationary depression. One caveat: All four were under some form of the gold standard. =============== OK, now you say: """"One caveat: All four were under some form of the gold standard."""" Boy Traveler, that's some caveat! (smile) Four hundred and sixteen years of history examples can be toppled by one little caveat. Truly, that little point is exactly "the point" for today's time! Our modern dollar world has created a fiat debt structure money system of biblical proportions. Nothing like it has ever been produced in the annals of time. We got to this point because our money was gold in the beginning. Then we allowed our confidence in gold as wealth to grow into the abilities of mankind to continue such a money system without gold. The result is a massive debt against every thing except gold! Every asset that exists in the USA is fully covered by such debt several times over. Either directly or indirectly through various official government debts. There is simply no historic example in the history of mankind that shows where everyone surrendered their assets to satisfy such debt. Yet, this is the process you Hypertiger, fully well expects from a deflation. A deflation by the way, that no gold standard today says must happen? Truly, had the dollar advocates allowed it to be devalued against gold long ago we would all know where we stand. Free trading Physical gold would have slowly risen in dollar prices in an ongoing process that would have taken gold prices into the heavens. But, it didn't happen and an imploding debt structure (caused by pushing on a string of consumer credit demand) will be "QUICKLY" countered with debt instrument purchases from the official level. The old 1980 monetary control act is already in place and allows our fed to buy everything down to your shoe laces in order to stop any debt defaults. FOA,hiking on the gold trail at USAGOLD. ************************************************************** Silly rabbits,quit trying to make sense of this thing,it's a social experiment,it's not grounded in any kind of monetary reality.That game is passe',only unsophisticates and barbarous relics still play it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Hey Guys, Nice to be back from vacation and catching up on my Stool reading. I found this article to be particularly thoughtful with respect to interest rates and their future direction: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Well worth the read for those of you, like myself, who view this increase in rates as unsustainable and unwarrented by economic fundamentals. GTNWORSE - A debate we are having on similar topic inB4 the Bell I was wondering if what we are seeing the trigger for a crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 There is simply no historic example in the history of mankind that shows where everyone surrendered their assets to satisfy such debt. Yet, this is the process you Hypertiger, fully well expects from a deflation. A deflation by the way, that no gold standard today says must happen? The majority of savers want their principal plus interest returned to them, and the majority of debtors want the cash to repay their debts. In a democracy, the majority get what they want. The problem is, this time they may also get what they deserve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted May 9, 2004 Report Share Posted May 9, 2004 Hey Guys, Nice to be back from vacation and catching up on my Stool reading. I found this article to be particularly thoughtful with respect to interest rates and their future direction: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Well worth the read for those of you, like myself, who view this increase in rates as unsustainable and unwarrented by economic fundamentals. If you sell a product called debt for x amount of dollars...and you need x amount of dollars to sustain your personal empire...what happens if there are no takers for your product? You either charge more and cut production or you slash the price in the hopes you find enough morons willing to sign on the dotted line... The current problem is there are not enough morons left to sign on the dotted line...or there are enough but the price is too high for them to afford because rates are rising for the fun of it... Take your pick. So the FED must mail out emergency implosion prevention checks to everyone then hopefully there will be enough morons to sign on the dotted line again... Or Al says bad yields, bad and they start dropping into the basement...and then everyone refis and produces a debt pile that makes the current action look like the mickey mouse club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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