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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell, Moonday May 3

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What is up with Warren Buffett? 

 

Why is he apparently taking pains to spread the view that we're going to see a falling dollar, rising (apparently) consumer goods prices, and a dangerously large current account defict?

 

What's in it for him?

several million ounces of silver.Some of which are under water below 7.50.

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Could this be the sign of the upcoming pullback/Crash????

 

Barron's cover this week has a picture of a bull in a rowboat throwing a bear overboard. The headline reads "BEAR OVERBOARD! -- Despite the market's recent doldrums, America's money manager's see the bull firmly in control."

 

Inside the issue---Barron's reports on the latest survey of Big Money mamagers.

57.3% are Bullish

4.0 % are very Bullish

and only 12% are Bearish

 

(Barron's print edition)

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Guest yobob1

LLD, I still expect the silver markt to chop sideways for quite a while. It has to to let the outsized short position to be worked off gradually without causing a panic. Then the question becomes will they(the big shorts) dare do it again having only recently barely rescued their testicles from the crusher?

 

In fact, my experience tells me that commodity prices have the strongest mean-reverting tendencies of any prices in the world. A China-driven downshift ? the functional equivalent of removing the biggest prop to the recent spike in materials prices ? is a classic trigger for just such a reversal, in my view. Moreover, that shift in fundamentals could be reinforced by an important investment trend: Since the ?long-commodity bet? was a favorite play of the hedge fund community in 2003, a China-related demand pullback could be an important trigger for an unwinding of this position in 2004. While a weaker dollar would be a partial offset for softness in these largely dollar-denominated price quotes, a sharp reversal in industrial materials prices seems like a distinct possibility to me as the China slowdown unfolds over the course of 2004.

 

Musings from the Roach Motel

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What is up with Warren Buffett?

 

Why is he apparently taking pains to spread the view that we're going to see a falling dollar, rising (apparently) consumer goods prices, and a dangerously large current account defict?

 

What's in it for him?

One possibility ...

 

He gets lots of money on the other side of the trade when he goes long the dollar, and it breaks through resistance.

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Although it may sound like a toss away comment, isn't it fairly obvious that one of the most levered economic environments in history would hit a growth rate brick wall if interest rates were to rise meaningfully? An economy that has become addicted to credit isn't going to run even faster when the dosage of its primary stimulant has been reduced. Even as the Fed eventually reacts to where the market is obviously leading it at the moment, will we ultimately witness yet another of history's aborted Fed Funds tightening cycles? Or will it be something a bit worse? Of course only time will tell, but history suggests that meaningful tightening in the current environment of real economic slack relative to historical experience will stop economic growth dead in its tracks. The irony, of course, is that by betting the ranch with anomalistic monetary policy over the last three to four years, the Fed has put themselves in a box. To get out of the box, they necessarily will have to at least in part puncture the credit dependent economy they helped foster in the first place. And certainly this should not be unexpected or some type of surprise. The build up in systemic leverage has been clearly documented in each Fed Flow of Funds quarterly report for years. In all sincerity, we take no pleasure at all in seeing a real economy exhibiting so much slack relative to historical post recessionary experience at what appears the exact time the markets are likely to force the Fed to deal with the unintended consequences of their remarkable actions of the recent past. We all face judgment day at some point, now don't we?

 

May Contrary Investor

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FORENSICS ALERT!!!

 

GM postpones release of earnings set for today due to a "computer glitch"

 

Translation:

 

AG called to check what the numbers would be, and insisted they hold it back for a day to enable the success of the planned monday jam job.

 

GM obviously missed their number.

Different day ... Same old bullshit

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bought 10 may 1115 puts spt qc-opening now for one hour top should be in-helmets on lock and load! stop 1116

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LLD, I still expect the silver markt to chop sideways for quite a while. It has to to let the outsized short position to be worked off gradually without causing a panic. Then the question becomes will they(the big shorts) dare do it again having only recently barely rescued their testicles from the crusher?

 

In fact, my experience tells me that commodity prices have the strongest mean-reverting tendencies of any prices in the world. A China-driven downshift ? the functional equivalent of removing the biggest prop to the recent spike in materials prices ? is a classic trigger for just such a reversal, in my view. Moreover, that shift in fundamentals could be reinforced by an important investment trend: Since the ?long-commodity bet? was a favorite play of the hedge fund community in 2003, a China-related demand pullback could be an important trigger for an unwinding of this position in 2004. While a weaker dollar would be a partial offset for softness in these largely dollar-denominated price quotes, a sharp reversal in industrial materials prices seems like a distinct possibility to me as the China slowdown unfolds over the course of 2004.

 

Musings from the Roach Motel

Thanks Yobob

I have sworn of the silver futures. There is nothing that comes close to reality when playing against the cartel and the games that have and will be played against the longs. Options make sense if one pays for time and is patient. Let them have their fun pushing around the ones on margin. I will continue to build a position at these ridiculous levels and wait for all the weak longs to be pushed out of the way. Same goes for gold.

For anyone playing the paper just be aware there will be a day when the comex is shut down in the interests of national security. I expect there will be some pretty wild moves prior to such a desperate act allowing me to get out of the way. In the meantime I will be supplementing my options with the physical just in case I am wrong :ph34r:

I still firmly believe the metals are a screaming buy at these levels. Trying to nail the bottom is a lost cause as there are many enemies of the metals making TA and fundamental analysis a lost cause.

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stopped plus 80 points greatfully received. ;)

good going B4. Waiting to get outa my x2 Dongs, which I expect to be outa by Wednesday...I gotta keep my dong profits from end of march March..hope..hope ....hope

 

 

I'm going short from 1120 up to whatever.

 

 

BTW guys I have been going over Precther's work since **January* and he seems to have called the Top...yeh he allowed self doubt last week with his 'whipsaw interim reports' but I still give it to him....though I guess even a broken clock is correct twice a day :blink:

 

man Prechter is so bearish... frighting and of course he says everything has already started to go down-Deflation theme..I guess that means an Inveretd yield curve with fed fighting for low rates while the Bonds plummet.

 

we will c

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They just realized what a bargain the homebuiders are

Jamathong doubt it will last BWTFDIK

Brokers index starting to get the glove

How bout that KRB...Dippers know value when they see it...

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BKX and HGX going nowhere

This rally is pure BS

Then again, aren't they all pure BS? Aren't all of the "markets" are pure BS?

 

On that note, is Warren Buffet in the house? If so, it's working for me ... at least for the nanosecond.

post-20-1083594056_thumb.jpg

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