depends Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 I won't play it up but, will add to shorts should we get it. Thats how I am thinking too. Got some good working shorts - like GM - which I shorted earlly, covered half, and re-shorted that half before the last drop Fri. I try to be covering half at support lines and reshorting at resistance. Just doing my part to make a market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 I like xlnx as a short here. Any thoughts? Been short since 37.75ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Usually in the early stages of a reversal of trend which has been in place a long time as this one has-no one believes it-the fear indicies still show rabid bullishness-only the weak bulls are selling the volume comes in only after the decline accelerates and the Bulls are trapped and panic. The other healthy sign is the Bears by and large aren't sold on a trend change yet as reflected by the p/c ratio-the perfect set up for wave 3 down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 link TE-I think the volume comes Monday with no bounce until the 5th. Merriman interestingly see's a decline to the 5th a bounce to the 17th and then a multi-year decline-Yikes-that IS the wave 3 scenario. agreed about the 5th B4 {though I would prefer the 4th 'Markie-Greene reconfirmation' bounce at say 2:15pm ?} but I see just a 2 day ramp into the Jobs report on the 7th then El Cliffo into the 5/14-17{ 1 day bounce on the 5/12 } and then a 2-4 day bounce into the 5/20 then a pluunge into June 10/11. we'll c P.S. COT looks weird..meaningless, commercials very bullish on the NAZ though while the sheep seem bullish on the SPX.hmmm http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm Put/Call is moving up which is bearish but I would like to have seen a lower p/c number on the high off the 3/24 retrace than the yearly high creating a clear put/call divergence with the lower SPX high on the 4/6 http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 I expect a crash, the way some people wait for the Messiah. . . I still having trouble believing that that was THE top in PMs, OR Commodities. I cannot explain in technical terms these cabalistic beliefs, other than a vague nod towards the more austere Austrian economists . . . Big E. Got my plate. Thanks a meg, IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 BDK, It will NEVER look perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 How was your time away Ick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 I like xlnx as a short here. Any thoughts? Been short since 37.75ish. I've been in and out of XLNX many times. Not in it currently - shoulda seen the 200 ma break down. Usually I take a small profit with tight stops as you know it often spikes. Heres an unbiased opinion: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Back to the market. Notice how every time we are at the edge of the cliff they bring it back? Well yesterday, I should say , the day before yesterday, we where there. What happened in the last few moments of Fridays trading leads me to believe that the jig is up on da bulls. Sometime next week we should see some major move to the downside. It may also be a ST bottom that lasts for a couple of weeks before a bigger decline. Keep your mind open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Nasdaq - worst week in 1.5 years. Whats their catch phrase? The leading market for the next 100 years? Lead On! Study shows grocery buyers shopping for bargains by heading to discount grocers and moving away from traditional grocers. Wal-Mart says April sales coming in at low end of expectations. Now A + B doesn't always =C, but if one of the nation's leading discount grocer's is comng in low and shoppers are shifiting towards discount grocers, well let's just say it doesn't look to good for Albertson's or retail in general. Like I said watch the lagging data as we head into Summer. And the Donald reports big losses but he may have enough cash to cover his MasterCard bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 'Inverted' Bradley on target since 1/26 http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Back to the market. Notice how every time we are at the edge of the cliff they bring it back? Well yesterday, I should say , the day before yesterday, we where there. What happened in the last few moments of Fridays trading leads me to believe that the jig is up on da bulls. Sometime next week we should see some major move to the downside. It may also be a ST bottom that lasts for a couple of weeks before a bigger decline. Keep your mind open. Good thoughts End The internals have been flashing warning signs as well for over 2 weeks. My main area of concern is the bond. The employment report at the beginning of April turned the market upside down as they chose to sacrifice the price of money. Im not suggesting the bond players are selling now due to the 308000 new jobs last month. That was only the excuse they needed to jump all over the bubble that dwarfs equities. The matrix tekegraphing intentions pure and simple. If the long bond cant be rescued in the coming weeks it is over. I would expect a horrid employment number next Friday. If not...... up goes yield down goes the bond and equities will follow. This market has been stretched past the point of no return on the cost of money.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Money and Credit Growth Hit a Stall Consumer Borrowing Goes from Binge to Nosedive Fed Releases update is now posted! Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important Fed Turdsday releases. Doc gives you his briefs, on the charts of the Fed's most important money and credit measures. Also includes inflation update on the CRB charts. Take a subscribatory and download your Fed Turdsday Releases RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 An article in todays "National Post" entitled- "Handover not a Retreat from Fallujah"-The article states unequivalently that the deal to hand it over to Iraqui General Saleh came from Shrub. Panic?- you bet- listen to thse two quotes from the story "General Saleh told a cheering throng people in Fallujah rejected U.S. Troops." Brigadier General Kimmitt on General Saleh-"I have little knowledge of the Generals background but he has been initially vetted." Translation-Hey, You -you were a General now you Command Fallujah. The article goes on to say Salehs force may include some of the insurgents. The Marines are quoted at length about how they feel betrayed. Corporal Elias Chavez age 28-"the deployment was a waste of time, of resources, and of lives. We had them cornered, they couldn't go anywhere. We had a chance to get them. Now they can flee wherever they want, and we are still going to have to deal with them." This article certainly supports the earlier one posted by Purdy. What a screw up, what a sad joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted May 1, 2004 Report Share Posted May 1, 2004 Every Molecule of income each and every human being in the system is dependant upon for existance...is nothing but debt that someone somewhere in the system is paying rent on to maintain it's existance... The required amount of debt inflation needed to overpower debt deflation must be maintained... Failure will lead to a hyperdeflationary implosion of the debt supply...currently thought of as an event that only exists in science fiction stories... A sickening mind boggling collapse of the division of labor... Alan or whoever better kick in the printing presses white hot until the dollars are spitting out on fire...Ya that'll save us... Reguardless what magic trick, delusional miracle, or secret weapon... We will soon touch the Event horizion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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