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Guest yobob1

B4 the Bell, Pre Friday April something 200?

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Well it's another Thursday, seems like just yesterday was the Thursday before! :P


Despite my prior prognostications, look for today's GDP figures to show strong growth. The statistic makers in Washington had to scamble to get out the March PPI report in time to flow those "good' numbers into the GDP report. Less inflation, higher GDP.



Men not at work:


Economic Scene


Published: April 29, 2004


A growing number of men in their prime working years are pursuing what might be called the Kramer lifestyle, after the enigmatic "Seinfeld" character: neither working nor attending school. In 1967, 2.2 percent of noninstitutionalized men age 25 to 54 spent the entire year without working for pay or attending school. That figure climbed to 8 percent in 2002, the latest year available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


This trend is partly related to the rising disability rolls. More than half of male nonworkers reported themselves as sick or disabled. But the number of long-term jobless men who were able-bodied - a diverse group including young retirees, men who cannot find work, and family care providers - grew at a faster rate than the number who were disabled over the last 35 years.


The problem is much more severe for some groups than others. Nearly one in five men age 25 to 54 with less than a high school degree did not work even one week in 2002. The nonworking rate for college graduates was only 3.3 percent. In central cities, 10.8 percent of men spent the year without work, compared with 7.1 percent elsewhere.


Joblessness is persistent over time, so it ends up being highly concentrated among a small cadre of men who frequently spend long stretches without work. Just 3 percent of men accounted for more than two-thirds of the total number of years that men spent not working in the period from 1987 to 1997, according to an analysis by Jay Stewart, an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Long-term joblessness among mature men has become a much more important phenomenon than unemployment. Many jobless men do not actively search for work, so they are not counted as unemployed. Yet they still represent a significant loss of productive human resources for the economy.



I work up-close and personal in this subject.


The courts/states have computerized the new-hire process. That means each new hire is 'registered' and checked nationwide to see if they are a dead-beat dad. If the social security number pops up, the state with the order pops the garnishment order to the employer and the worker finds himself working not for 5.15 but for 2.60 or so (50% being the most common 'bite'). Would you work for $2.16?

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You know I am always astonished at the way History repeats itself we never, ever learn. CNN is reporting in their lead story about how the U.S. will turn over Fallujah to an Iraqui force led by former iraqui Generals under Sadaam-their force will provide security in Fallujah. This is a carbon copy of the Nam fortified Village concept where the South Vietnamese provided security in the Cities and at night they came out to kill Americans and went home in the morning. It is what Einstein speaks of when he says "he saw the hate in their eyes".

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Well they were closed yesterday, so they have some catching up to do.

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... at night they came out to kill Americans and went home in the morning....

True True. This really happened. Our HQ company had

Vietnamese cooks. One night we killed two of them

in a skirmish at Dau Tieng. Too bad. They were excelent

cooks and could make great southern fried chicken.

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Hey Hiding Bear!


Unkle Fuku finally figured out that the best way to weaken the yen was to stop buying Treasuries. Higher bond yields in the US will make the dolor relatively more attractive. If it has dawned on them that the simple fact that their buying of dollars and then using them to buy Treasuries was having the opposite effect of what was intended, why by cracky, the gig is up!


How's that for a run-on sentence? :lol:

Great observation!


They probably also figured out that the downside of buying so many Treasuries was they were effectively transferring savings from Japan to the US. Since they probably don't plan to reverse that policy completely by ever selling Treasuries, it is a permenent transfer of wealth. Also it bears heavily on their domestic Treasury market to finance this policy. Their rates are creeping up, maybe ready to punch to new mutli year highs after Golden week is finished.

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I don't believe in jinxing the trade or the market. With that said, I will post the End by the Doors. B) I type this knowing that I have not posted a Doors song in months. We might need a little PUSH.


The Doors THE END lyrics

This is the end

Beautiful friend

This is the end

My only friend, the end


Of our elaborate plans, the end

Of everything that stands, the end

No safety or surprise, the end

I'll never look into your eyes...again



Can you picture what will be

So limitless and free

Desperately in need...of some...stranger's hand

In a...desperate land



Lost in a Roman...wilderness of pain

And all the children are insane

All the children are insane

Waiting for the summer rain, yeah



There's danger on the edge of town

Ride the King's highway, baby

Weird scenes inside the gold mine

Ride the highway west, baby



Ride the snake, ride the snake

To the lake, the ancient lake, baby

The snake is long, seven miles

Ride the snake...he's old, and his skin is cold



The west is the best

The west is the best

Get here, and we'll do the rest



The blue bus is callin' us

The blue bus is callin' us

Driver, where you taken' us



The killer awoke before dawn, he put his boots on

He took a face from the ancient gallery

And he walked on down the hall

He went into the room where his sister lived, and...then he

Paid a visit to his brother, and then he

He walked on down the hall, and

And he came to a door...and he looked inside

Father, yes son, I want to kill you

Mother...I want to...


C'mon baby, take a chance with us

C'mon baby, take a chance with us

C'mon baby, take a chance with us

And meet me at the back of the blue bus

Doin' a blue rock

On a blue bus

Doin' a blue rock

C'mon, yeah



Kill, kill, kill, kill, kill, kill



This is the end

Beautiful friend

This is the end

My only friend, the end



It hurts to set you free

But you'll never follow me

The end of laughter and soft lies

The end of nights we tried to die



This is the eeeennnnnd!

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My right arm for an inverse Japanese bond fund.

Short Ishares through goldman or merril. very risky though 99% of Japanese bonds are owned by banks or the govt. This is the only market that is more of a circle jerk than the US treasury market.

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