PileDriver Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 dont' try to make sense of market, especially in short term. You don't have to, to trade for profit. Invest in good stock picking software (I use VectorVest & OmniTrader) and spend more time picking great dongs and lousy turds to short and less time trying to outwit "the market" on the whole. Waste of time. You don't have to agree with the stock's fundamentals, if its performing go for it - who cares if it doesn't make sense. Only care if it turns coin. Doesn't matter what you think of the stock, it only matters what the masses think. Why have scrupples in a market that doesn't have any itself - go with the flow - life is too short to wait for direction that "makes sense". Always diversify and use stops. Its the best you can do. Stop trying to find the holy grail to market timing - doesn't really exist :grin: Stop making sense of the senseless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Hey Guys, Here's an interesting quote from Elaine Garzarelli. Some of you might remember that she gained fame with her 87 crash rediction. I guess she's been living off that reputation ever since. She says, "Our subscribers know, as quantitative anal cysts, we are bullish on stocks for this year as our 14 indicator stock market composite registers a 71 percent bullish reading. However, non-quantitative notions also call for a bullish market - one is the presidential cycle. Since WWII, no third year of a Presidential term has been a down year for stocks. Down years are usually in the first half a Presidents term as they try to get the bad news out of the way early in order to have a good economy when they run for re-election." Just thought I'd let you know that the bear market is over, Elaine says so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Piles, my jaw dropped just seeing Bernstein on the panel. Re Abby: she's now looking more like an elderly chimpanzee than an Ape. I love here excuse for this past year, it was Saddam, it was Enron, it was WorldCom etc. Jeesh. Re: Joey the Bat: He looks like instead of being slapped on the ass when he was born, he was smacked in the face with a frying pan. So he left New York, he's now in Philly, I expect next year at this time he will be somewhere in the minor league system or, most likely, selling cars in Akron. I went dong with impunity Tuesday based on the last two New Years and the thought that those MF guy's will be buying back what they sold at the end of 2002 to lipstick up their quarterlies for Joey Sixpack. I was out by lunch on Turdsday (took the Anal's pojected high at that point). Had I stayed in bla bla bla but, I was very happy with what I made. I may go back in Tuesday afternoon for a very short dong (depending on where things are at) because of the Idiot Prince's hustle coming up this Tuesday night. If not, I have set up my sandbags, set up my machine gun, picked my targets and am just waiting to see, as Doc put it, the whites of their highs. On down to D-Day! Mark, Happy New Year. I appreciate that you are taking into account all types of investors (trend traders, etc.) in your suggestions this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 This weekends thread is of the most thoughtful and reasoned in a long, long, time-good stuff! I am delighted to see posters who aren't sure about gold, or waiting for a pullback etc-it tells me POG continues to go higher as not even all the pro's and semi-pro's believe. Look the Joe Sixpacks of the world not just the U.S. are tip toeing into POG as the Bush Follies begin with Iraq and the market implodes to new lows in Wave 3 down and the public recognizes finally and fully IT IS OVER-that tip toeing will turn to a buying panic-load up it is your last chance. Now as to the markets-Yes-I am long but not for long (probably mid week at the latest) when I see Mark, Piles, Fart and others who I care for dearly scalping the long side with me my nerve endings tell me it's time to be fully short. I've been doing this for a long time and going against the grain has made me a successful trader. One of the posters earlier touched on this and so did BUDDA when everyone jumps on the same side of the ship it's about to turn OVER. Shrub's speech will be a classic case of sell the news-3rd waves have tremendous velocity-and start when EVERYONE is in the market-getting out of a long position won't be easy-I hope you all have tight stops and are long only in liquid stocks or indicies (I am!) by the close Monday I will be fully hedged and by mid week fully short. I agree with END'S scenario on timing but he will tell you as I do this thing can roll at any time. Now GTN-you're a terrific guy but you shouldn't be in a LONG FUND. Put your Mommas money in a Ginny Mae fund and yours in BEARX you will sleep better and prosper. Trade Safe!-Aussie Bear-I didn't know you were in Perth-Beautiful city and OH!-the women! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Thanks Hypertiger! That was the best fundamental analysis of gold in layman's terms that I have ever seen. It makes me more comfortable holding a long term position if the fundamentals are on my side. By the way, I saved your analysis and will show it to my kids someday as we relish the past. This site has some other fundamental reasons why a person should buy gold. I mainly trade based on technicals, so let's see a well thought out technical defense of gold. Thank you all for your well thought out responses, I am learning a lot from this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 The 21 ema is below the 300 ema on the Put/Call ratio, are we getting close to another important bear market top on the indices? http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$cpc,uu[w,a]daclyymy[de][pc300!c21][vc60][iLe21,300,9]&pref=G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Hedge Fund Nightmare comic dedicated to Mark. Other funny financial comics are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Trying to watch some of the playoff games. Guess who is front and center sponsoring the event. the NYSE. Begging the public to come back on into the water. Bowing,scrapping,posturing and fawning. Cue ball headed 'Mickey' Grasso must have reached deep into his pocket this weekend to pull out the wad necessary to grease the never ending publicity hoax these Hoods and Bosses have going in the media. Not one of these arch asseholes got any time. Not one of them. Spitzer has just walked away now. Hes done his thing. Should have garnered enough press for a political run in 2004. I mean what does anyone expect. Read some of Cramers book on Wall Street. Spitzer was one of Cramer's early ground floor partners in the forming of his Hedge Fund. The entire thing is a cesspool of filth and liars. Shames into submission anything found on the back streets of Dicken's London. The loud nonstop plugging of the Exchanges on the airwaves today projects two things. One, the state of fear these Pigs are in concerning retail and two, it makes for an excellent Bear indicator. I can remember the nonstop trolling for Nasdaq customers in 2000. They got everybody into the water back then just before they released Jaws from the steel cage right alongside the Marina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Joey "Chipmunk Head" Battapaglia is on Bulls and Bears.... Will "Chipmunk Head" be: 1. Slightly bullish. 2. Bullish 3. Very Bullish 4. His normal Nazdaq 5000 bullish. 5. Or did he have one of those "A Christmas Carol" dreams where God explained that if he didn't stop lying on TV, he was going to spend eternity burning in hell along side Alan Greenspan, Jeff Bezos and Maria Bartiroma. My guess, No. 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Slinger, here's some technical support for the bullish PM case: (quoted excerpt:) This could be the once in a generation opportunity to continually pyramid the investment upwards on each subsequent buy signal (after a decline) to build a fortune. Since I have been trading/investing in golds since 1985, I have only had the opportunity to do this on the short side. The triple buy signal (which has not occurred since pricing began in the early 1970s) may be heralding a titanic shift in money flows into the precious metals arena. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...ssage_id=653339 Follow the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 I don't know which was more disgusting those NYSE ads or the Colts play (although I'm a Jets (J-E-T-S Jets!) fan). NYSE, Nasdaq, Schwab they are all advertising ad nauseum on the games today. Reminds me of all those Internet company ads (remember March1st.com?) playing on these games back in 1999-2000. Nasdaq is on the way to the same fate as March1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Hyper tiger opines"Gold will be the last thing to collapse once it's usefullness is over". Uh,read about John Law and the Mississippi Bubble,the aftermath and gold's role in the French Monetary system subsequent to the great unwinding. Gold is money,wacky,ain't it.Five thousand years of history, playing that role.Dominant monetary regimes always try the same angle,the road may be a little different,final destination is always the same. Only thing that overrules gold is tyranny,violence and genocide,and they ultimately need the gold to carry it out. See Nazi Germany for that one. There is nothing new under the sun. Collapse against what, green cheese? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Hey Guys,Here's an interesting quote from Elaine Garzarelli. Some of you might remember that she gained fame with her 87 crash rediction. I guess she's been living off that reputation ever since. She says, "Our subscribers know, as quantitative anal cysts, we are bullish on stocks for this year as our 14 indicator stock market composite registers a 71 percent bullish reading. However, non-quantitative notions also call for a bullish market - one is the presidential cycle. Since WWII, no third year of a Presidential term has been a down year for stocks. Down years are usually in the first half a Presidents term as they try to get the bad news out of the way early in order to have a good economy when they run for re-election." Just thought I'd let you know that the bear market is over, Elaine says so! Garzarelli only predicted a "correction" to use her words - in 1987. No talk then of a big pullback, jumping ship or an end to the bull market. However since everyone else was so bullish, she stuck out. Hypertiger - Great posts. I fear most that you and Col Dashley may be right. When that curtain drops, the show will be over. Just hope that it does not come soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 5, 2003 Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 Thanks Alex. Here's a recent article about Prechter since he is mentioned on this board often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 5, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2003 You guys have a good point. The shorts are finally finished. Finished with fighting Al Green with one hand tied behind their back. Now the Stoolies, ShortFunds, and all sorts of bears might decide to go both ways for once. The boat gets overloaded on one side and tips over? You can see this mass switch from short to long, and long to short with the now frequent 90% up days. You can see the arena participants marking up or shorting fewer and fewer stocks, evidenced by a .20 TRIN one day and a 4.50 TRIN 4 days later. Before this is over, the entire globe will be either buying or shorting the Supermodels. The rest of the market will trade in a narrow range. I'll continue to follow PileDriver's strategy. I will be 50% long at all times from now on, unless we are in a confirmed waterfall or a meltup. We have been idiots trying to pick tops and bottoms, and by staying short all the time. Those waiting for the overnight big gap down or a Credit Bubble Explosion: It ain't going to happen. From now on, we will just go with the trend. Right now, the McClellan and Summation Indexes are now turned up. The ST trend is now officially up. I doubt there will be any type of crash scenario. I think the market will die a slow death, the same way the bull market was building during 1994 - 1997 when nobody was really noticing. We will decline, and nobody will really notice. Up, down, up, down... Just follow the bouncing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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