PileDriver Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 my WAG is we'll put in a slower rolling over type top into next Fib date area 1/13-1/16. Despite very little additional upside compared to initial blast off VIX and p/c ratios will probably still drop low getting the bulls all foaming b/c it'll drag out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Hungry, HRFF may be miss-STEAKun, BUTT he thinx you're probably best off trading w Profunds directly. .... Will wonders never cease? The no. of people going long, talking about long plays on this BORED rises with each passing day; ditto, the laments and wound licking about short losses. One fellow is on the right track, however, thinx The BARE. This fellow sez he's too damned scared to go long. He realizes how you can get caught, long. And The BARE thot HE was the ONLY one howling in the wilderness about the latent EXTREME dangers this market STILL possesses (Martin Weiss excepted, of course!) and how he couldn't bring hisself to go long FUR more than a nanosecond, if AT ALL. The jamming of the averages, the buffalo-ing/squeezing of the bears will go on as long as it CAN go on. These people engineering this are ALL pandering to our baser instincts. Ironically, in doing sew, they IGNORE the still more FEARFUL passions that lurk in our breasts, collectively, and the frisson of electricity/thought that can transform the masses into an unspeakably horrific beast in the twinkling of an eye, given the right stimulus. Will and Ariel Durant have a marvelous quote about that. The BARE posted it AGES ago, but can't seem to make Doc's search engine find it on the older boards. All this capitulation, all this paying homage to pressure is emblematic of the fulcrum we are now poised upon. These endless machinations will either maintain some semblance of balance or plunge us into an irretrievably tragic drama of simply cosmic dimension. It's CRUNCH time. For those of you who are long or thinking about getting long: you damned-well better'd be right. Perhaps it would be better to get out of the howling hurricane and seek temporary shelter, rather than try to bend with the wind. Like the typhoon that swept those two tiny islands this past week way out in the Pacific, attempts to ride with the storm can end in catastrophe. "He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day." Or sumpthin' like dat der. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 btw, I'm 20% long, 80% short. Will pony up the latter and reduce former once price confirms this rally is kaput. I don't expect it to carry much farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Pitbull, until the yellow line on this chart is broken with good volume, be very nimble with your gold purchases and sells, in my opinion. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$GOLD,uu[w,a]mjolyiay[pc10!c20!c30!c40!c50!c90!c100!c200][vc60][iuh14,3!uh39,1!ul14!ul7!ua12,26,9!ue30,100,1!lv25!lya7,14,28!lb14!lc20!lf][J7615863,Y] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Gold HUGE physical market buying surfaced out of the Middle East while Comex was trading down on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 It seems that the norm nowadays is to talk about the huge JPM derivatives in gold, small market cap of gold, low worldwide supply of gold, and retail sheep purchases of gold. It seems that everyone is forgetting or is choosing to ignore the COT reports and the actions and history of the commercial traders who have huge pockets of money to throw at the short side. If someone could kindly point out a time when the commercial boys ended up on the wrong side and the retail sheep ended up on the right side, maybe I might side with the "this time is different" mentality. Also, until the gold contract holders have the nadz of steel to actually ask for delivery of the gold (which would require them to also take on the risk of security and the costs of storage, but would force the price of gold to reflect the actual worldwide shortage of physical gold vs the number of outstanding contracts), and until this little "unimportant" line at http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$GOLD,uu[w,a]mjolyiay[pc10!c20!c30!c40!c50!c90!c100!c200][vc60][iuh14,3!uh39,1!ul14!ul7!ua12,26,9!ue30,100,1!lv25!lya7,14,28!lb14!lc20!lf][J7615863,Y] is broken to the upside by the supposedly numerous gold bulls, I am not convinced of the "new" bull market in gold (as in the metal, not the mining stocks). The economy and "event risks" are not valid reasons either, since markets can stay irrational for a very long time. Maybe I'm just ignorant or naive or both. Can someone set me straight with a well thought out defense of gold, full of facts and charts and not just rah rah cheerleading like we have constantly seen from the equity retail sheep and anal cysts? Thanks. (If requested, we can take this to the gold forum, but I'd rather keep it here since this forum attracts many more eyeballs.) I just don't want to see any of my fellow stoolies caught holding the bag in this new gold rush if it turns out to be a large headfake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillytheBooh Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Well, this little bear thinks that momma and poppa bear come out to play by the 16th or so. The upside on the naz should be 1447-1460 but anywhere less will do...1408-1426 maybe? These are ugly waves to count and the only few triggers for sure is that a move above 1392 means we are still in a correction of wave ii. If we do not move past that on Monday and still have not till Tuesday BUSH speech day beware the W of George's speech as it will likely be the impetus for a sharp drop and the beginning of wave iii confirmation. ONLY a break below 1327 will confirm it for sure. On the upside there is and always was a probable outcome that could allow for a rally into late february and or early march all the way to 1696. Though this count is not preferred and falls 4th or 5th in line it is still out there and normally bears sleep this time of the year. My bet is poppa and momma bear will be here sooner than most think so no daydreaming allowed the next few tarding days. I agree there are many , too many fib turn dates acoming to ignore..... On the upside the rally can test the december highs, and can conceivably continue till 1696 and we would still be bearish for 2003. That is not what this little booh is expecting. See you on the short side SOON............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jraabe Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 For your weekend reading pleasure. From Zeal's Adam Hamilton on trading the NASDAQ using two simple indicators. Nice charts... http://www.zealllc.com/2003/bust2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Slinger... The only way the "cartel" will escape is to come up with a massive supply of gold... or the machine that produces gold out of thin air shows up... The demand for (Physical) gold is so great that soon the fractional reserve system that has been suppressing its price will crumble causing the price of physical gold to shoot up very far... The powers that be want the price of gold to go up, They have the most gold... When the fractional reserve system collapses gold is what is used to start it up again (Basis)... The powers that be know this, the paper asset deal is just a milking operation to get more gold... As much gold as they can get their hands on... That?s how they rule the world. Physical Gold and silver is a good "hedge" against the powers that be and their plans. This process is 1000's of years old and took me many years to figure out... Y2K was the start of the milking operation (Looting) operation... Eventually though once order is restored the buying power of gold will collapse... Charts and forecasts? We don?t have years to figure out what the collapse of the Central Fiat reserve banking system looks like? All I know is this is what it has looked like before? Example of previous posts sorry never saved the link? The bank hath benefit of interest on all moneys which it creates out of nothing. -William Paterson, founder of the Bank of England, c1694. Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce. -President James Garfield. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. -Thomas Jefferson Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the earth; take it away from them but leave them with the power to create credit; and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this world would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you want to be slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers control money and control credit. -Sir Josiah Stamp, Director, Bank of England, c1940. Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.?Kenneth Boulding, economist. Ah thats the deal eh... The U.S. dollar's worth is a figment of everyones imagination pure and simple... The basis for the dollar is Goernment bonds... Whats worth more $10,000 in bonds or 10,000 in cash? The bonds because the bonds gain value with compound interest while cash loses value from the compound interest... But their worth is just a figment of peoples imagination... Now what is the future? All paper assets will become worthless because not very many people can comprehend the Fractional reserve system at the basic level. Forget all the complexities and conspiracies piled ontop of lies and half truths. It is so simple... The Economic system of the current world civilization has not changed in 400 years... Central Banking based on fractional reserves. But somethin did change slightly in 1971. Before the Gold Window closed the fractional basis for the U.S. Dollar was GOLD. How does that work? Many years ago when gold coin was the currency Banks did not exist... The only group that had the necessary facilities to store wealth in the form of gold coins were the GOLDSMITHS. People would store (Deposit) their gold and the goldsmith would give them a receipt. The people found it easier to carry receipts to market then gold after awhile and the receipts became as ?good as gold?. The Goldsmiths noticed that at any given time 90% of the gold in their vaults just collected dust, so the goldsmiths started loaning gold in the form of receipts on top of just making phony receipts. The gold market to this very day is run like this? as long as people will take paper instead of GOLD you will never run out of GOLD and paper is almost endless. One slight problem was found with this system DEBT INFLATION. As Debt inflation grows the ?receipts? lose buying power 2 ways a) the compound interest charged on the ?loans? destroys the value of the receipts b ) The counterfeit receipts and loans increase the supply of buying power which causes prices to rise which adds to or compounds the destruction of buying power. And the biggest problem with DEBT inflation is that the bigger the DEBT grows the less GOLD there is to back up the DEBT so eventually the system will grow continually weaker until there is no backing any more for the receipts in circulation. At the start of Debt deflation 1,000,000 receipts are in circulation with 10% backing by gold, so as long as only 100,000 receipts are exchanged for GOLD then there is no problem. But if DEBT INFLATION is reaches MAXOUT at 10,000,000 then only 10,000 receipts are needed to suck up all the gold? I could go on an on about how it evolves from that point but you hopefully see what I am saying? DEBT INFLATION causes the Fractional System to become very weak? But today the backing of the U.S. Dollar is not gold but Bonds and the bonds are backed by the American people, so are the American people good as gold? That?s called slavery to be owned in such a way? Bonds have compound interest attached to them so they rise in value as you hold them and are backed up by the American people so just what are the American people backed up by? Gold? No the U.S. Dollars which are losing value in relation to the bonds compound interest rate? How are U.S. Dollars created? Every time Money is borrowed from a bank it is created out of thin air with compound interest attached to the debt/money which destroys the value of the money causing inflation. How does inflation work? Lets say the money supply is $1000.00 and the compound interest that is destroying its value is 5%, if the money supply is 1000.00 and it costs 1000.00 to run the economy where does the money come from to pay the 5% interest rate from? Borrowing! Or Debt inflation. Why Borrow? Well lets say you tried to save up to buy a house it could take 10 years but the bankers will create the money out of thin air for you if you don?t mind paying them 5% compound interest/year for the money they created out of thin air. By buying a house and borrowing the money to do it you have added to DEBT/money inflation. Why does debt inflation cause prices to rise? COMPOUND INTREST. The more debt that is borrowed the more compound interest that is created? compound Interest can never be paid off, ever, never? Eventually a strange thing starts to happen in order to pay the compound interest the speed that the economy has to run at has to be increased by being made more efficient or borrowing has to be increased or both which leads eventually to the ever popular HYPERINFLATION as more and more compound interest is created by the DEBT used to pay the compound interest. Well that means we have unlimited resources right? Yes as long as the COMPOUND INTREST can be paid by continually borrowing or creating DEBT to do it. Unfortunately this process has an ?upper limit? once the ?economic activity? slows or stops then the ability to create debt also slows or stops which in turn causes the inability of compound interest to be paid. And deflation begins which can only be stopped by bankruptcy or resumption of inflation? Ok what is economic activity? Economic Activity is the living process of human beings or everything that human being do on a daily basis to contribute to their survival? Food clothing and shelter and all the tools needed to accomplish their goal of survival on the planet EARTH. What causes Economic activity to slow or stop? Reduction of borrowing required to accomplish the goal of survival such as everyone having enough shelter, enough food, enough clothing, enough tools, also Death puts and end to economic activity and various other things you get the point there is an upper limit to debt inflation. Fractional reserve economics in it?s most simple to understand form Compound interest creates debt inflation which causes economic activity to increase = life But when inflation slows or stops due to economic activity slowing or stopping then? When economic activity slows or stops Debt deflation begins which destroys the ability for compound interest to be serviced = Death Or Debt inflation = Life Debt deflation = Death Life and Death for whom? The payers of the compound interest created by the fractional reserve banking system namely the 6 billion people of the planet EARTH. How do ?we? stop this highly destructive system? How do we break free from the slavery of Compound Interest? Answer: Abolish Compound Interest. How do we abolish compound interest? That has been the ?real? dream of slaves since the beginning of recorded history and that is the ?secret? that the ?Powers that be? or ?slave owners? never ever want the slaves to figure out. They will coat the planet with blood to maintain control and prevent the ?secret? or cause of all human misery suffered to be figured out or lead back to the source. And basically the human race are morons and will never figure this out because that is where ?we? are right now THE WORLD DEBT has inflated to it?s maximum potential and economic activity has slowed or stopped in some cases and the ability of the human race to service the compound interest is at an end and Debt deflation has taken hold permanently? nothing can stop the debt deflation because debt inflation has reached maximum potential. The only thing that stops deflation in a fractional reserve banking system which has reached the maximum potential is ?Bank?ruptcy followed by collapse of the system itself until all debts are wiped out which in turn wipe out compound interest? So now you know the ?SECRET? which is: COMPOUND INTEREST, NO MATER HOW BIG OR SMALL AND IN ANY SHAPE OR FORM, LEADS TO EVENTUAL COLLAPSE OF THE FRACTIONAL RESERVE SYSTEM. And since human civilization is dependent on fractional reserve banking it will collapse too? Any one that doesn?t believe the above after reading this is a traitor to the human race and is in contempt of all things good? Or just plain stupid? What do we do about it? Answer: It is too late to do anything about it, or is it? The World economy is finished? We are in the final stages of the ?Good Old Days?? Comments after that grim news? And more eye bleeding material? This is how ?modern? Fractional Reserve banking has worked for 100?s of years. Phase/Stage 1 Everyone?s favorite drug INFLATION of Debt? Once the maximum potential for debt inflation is reached phase/stage 2 begins. (this is where we/you are? standing at the edge of ?the good old days?) Phase/stage 2 DEFLATION of debt, How or why? Compound interest is the price to sustain inflation. As long as you can pay the price, inflation will continue and your hopes and dreams will usually come true. Once you can not afford the payment your hopes and dreams will not come true. Simple The only way to pay compound interest is to borrow money/create debt. Once borrowing slows or stops compound interest can not be paid and debt deflation is the result. Aren?t we just in a mild recession or ?soft spot?? No, In the past there was ?slack? in the economic system, what is slack? ?SAVINGS?. with the introduction of computers the economists have figured how much everyone has, and marketing specialists have figured out how to get it. The charts below are some evidence that the slack is gone? We are just in the beginning stages of deflation. Phase/stage 3 ?Bank?ruptcy Complete collapse of all interconnected banks in the system, since the US dollar is the world reserve currency the world banking system will collapse. plain and simple. Recap of the ?LIFECYCLE? phases/stages of fractional reserve banking. Phase/stage 1 = debt INFLATION Phase/stage 2 = debt DEFLATION Phase/stage 3 = ?Bank?ruptcy Simple as 1,2,3 We are on the verge of total world economic collapse and resource wars of conquest... What will the market do on Monday? Get one more step closer to the Wild desperate animal stage? Reality that the World reserve currency is (Baseless) and collapses (Debt deflation implosion) world wide Hope that is enough info? More gold = more power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auntie Septic Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Jimbo, I'm not understandin' what you're saying about the autos. In particular, Ford. F is a time bomb. It doesn't make money, and is locked in a vicious price war with GM. Part of their $160,000,000,000+ debt is "secured" by auto loans. I'll get back to this in a bit. If the company doesn't make money, how is it going to pay the juice on that debt? Now back to that "secured" debt. The belief by arrogant F longs is that people won't default en-masse on car loans. But yet house repos are at an all time high. I say that the mortgage is right behind feeding the kids on Joe 6's priority list. At "6"% unemployment, if a record number of people are letting their house go, I wonder what they're doing about auto loans...? What's it gonna be when unemployment hits "10"%. Maybe the high number of personal bankruptcies flashes a clue. F's credit rating is tending towards junk. Remeber when UAL went chap 11? Guess who was one of thier creditors? I've got family that stupidly bought F bonds because of the high yield to the tune of $300,000. I am genuinely scared that my relatives will end up pennyless. As for Porsche, I don't know about the company. I had a 928 about 10 years ago that was a money pit, so I guess the replacement parts market for Porsche is probably a growing business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShamPoo Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Thanks Mark, Hope this year goes well for all here. Grab some points as you can. KALC tacked on 3 in as many days. Just makes it look more ready to short again. 40+? George is cool because he gets to print money. George is printing money to protect us. George likes SDI. Gray Davis (and all other state governors) can?t print money. George is more popular then them. George may stimulate John Q. But then Mr. Davis will just take it back by providing fewer services and raising John?s taxes. Gray Davis should print money like George, then he could be popular too. Thanks Abbyucky, may see BAC back to 75 one more time. BAC is popular. So much energy expended to create the illusion of prosperity and stability at the expense of prosperity and stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkdoc Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 By the way, LeMetropole Cafe has an interesting take on the ISM report this week: "The biggest increase in US manufacturing in 11.5 years occurred in December if you believe the ISM numbers. The 5.5-point gain to 54.7 for December was the largest increase since June 1991." "The increase came from an explosion of new orders, which accounts for 1/3 of the ISM index. Inventories rose to 46.2 from 42.1, but the index of stockpiles is at its highest level since August 2000." "Employment inexplicably rose to 47.4 from 43.8!!! The backlog of orders rose to 46.5 from 42.5. A Reuter?s index of 2500 non-US purchasing managers from a dozen countries fell to 48.4 in Dec from 49.5 in Nov. Only two days ago, the Chicago PMI fell 1.5 points more than expected and consumer confidence unexpectedly tanked!!" "Since ISM includes energy purchases, it?s highly likely that stockpiling of energy products ahead of a probable Iraqi conflict boosted the ISM. How much of the ISM gain in new orders is due to inventory building ahead of the expected Iraqi incursion, including orders by the US military as it mobilizes troops?" "The ISM increase at best could be a one-shot ?war? stockpiling wonder, or it could be the product of artful accounting." "Reuters on the dubious ISM numbers: "But the sudden improvement in the December report was at odds with other mediocre economic news in the past month, and puzzled economists. One respondent to the Institute survey mentioned the mid-week holiday as a motivation for customers to place increased orders?Regional surveys of manufacturing in New York, Philadelphia and the Chicago area showed smaller improvements in the past two months." "Thursday?s rally qualifies as a 90% up day (90% advancing volume and 90% of issues advancing). When 90% up days are NOT preceded by one or more 90% down days, the insane rally usually signifies a top, not a buying opportunity. Robust rally action in the next few sessions is a necessity." LeMetropole? Not originally from that site. This was taken word for word from the King Report as posted early Friday morning on McAlvany's site and on the Prudent Bear Chat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Thanks to Stoolander for sending this in yesterday. Doc posted it in IDS. Those of you who only join us at night should take 10 minutes to browse the IDS threads. Very entertaining. Will give you a good feel for the trading day. I must comment on the wonderful writing in this Forum. Mark, of course, sets the standard which, I'm afraid, almost none of us, including yours truly, will ever reach. Others of you however also have great style and wit. Very enjoyable reading. I would like to single out for special commendation, Rayok, whoc consistently manages to say the most with the fewest words. Doc is afflicted with an embarrassingly short attention span, so he truly appreciates those who can make their point in a few words. Unfortunately there are some who are afflicted with keyboard diarhea and need to tighten up. If a post takes up more than half a screen, given my attention deficit disorder, I usually skip it. Any post that long should probably start its own topic on Look Out Below. Carry On! Your Weak End Anals will be posted mid-day Saturday US Eastern time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 OK, so I exaggerated. I'll read anything up to a full screenload. But if it's a major full length screed, I'd recommend giving it its own topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 4, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Joey "Chipmunk Head" Battapaglia is on Bulls and Bears.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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