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Yesterdays job shocker was beyond absurd. Especially against the previous months data. My first thought was ..Who is in trouble? Another LTCM brewing? Most stoolies are well aware that the only pillar under this POS market is the cost of money. Why would they take away the punch bowl right here right now? The market was not at a juncture where such a lie was required to save the day. Something else is in the wind and I'm quite surprised it isn't being openly discussed. The repercussions of the reversal in rates {10 year yield spike highest in 8 years}, was brushed aside for now. The Banking index was only down 1.2% and the housing 1.8%...WTF Hello. We all know what brought the market down in 87. They are playing a very dangerous game here. The market may be able to hold off the new policy by the administration for a short while, but there is zero chance this overinflated, overvalued, overinvested, POS will get anything going against rising yields. Say goodbye to refis and real estate.

And what about Japan? How do they play into this? Are they not sitting on a mountain of US treasuries recently purchased with newly acquired clownbucks. If anyone can provide us with an idea of the bath they took yesterday it would be appreciated. The Yen against the dollar yesterday went from 96.60 to 95.89. The currency appreciation must pale in comparison to losses on treasuries.

The trades gone wrong yesterday must be staggering. We probably wont hear about them for a few weeks. Yesterday will mark a very historic day in bubble 2

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Guest yobob1

Had a rather busy Fryday and missed all of the fun. Looks like banks, gold and reits with the worst damage and a little nip at the financials and utilities. With the ten year yield up a quarter mortgge business will slow some, but unless the 10s break out above 5.5 I doubt if the sale of homes will slow too much from interest rates alone other than in the priciest markets. The refi business will be totally toast by 5.0 on the 10s. If you were a subscriber to the Anals, you would know that the "gang" was way short bonds going into Friday. Maybe they got it right finally.

 

If there's any doubt over the jobs picture, it's only the administration wondering just how much crap the sheeple will believe. There is no question in my mind that this number was purely political in nature and has nothing to do with reality. I mean geeze these guys will lie about anything to start war, why would a little fib about a job's number bother them?

 

It will be interesting to see if the expected tax revenues come in as forecast and they only have to borrow 75 billion this quarter. I'm guessing they won't and they will need more. I mean after all, the top 10% supposedly pay most of the taxes and those are the folks, along with the corporates, that have received the lion's share of the cuts. The refunds are pretty much done by now. Anybody that is up for a refund files as soon as they get all of their documents, which is generally January 31 by law. With all of the "refund loans" and e-filing, that money has already come and gone for the most part - the sheeple are spent. Now those who usually have to pay drag their feet as long as possible, and this is the number that can surprise the government. I know mine sure did. :lol: Next year they will be thoroughly shocked since my lower taxes this year allow me to draw less and therefore pay less taxes next year. Once you get the spiral working in your favor, there's not a damn thing the bastards can do. The good news is I now qualify for food stamps and subsidized housing, yet I have more in my pocket - go figure. :lol: Please note there is no cheating involved it is merely applying the existing tax laws to full advantage.

 

I remain committed to my forecast for the remainder of the year. Yes we will see a little spike in inflation at the retail price level for general goods, but it won't stick. J6P simply can't support it. As an example GM once again ratcheted up their incentives packages (AGAIN!) to just try and stay in place. In my industry there are some tiny increases on competed units(1-3% after 4-5 years of flat to declining), but the larger share of increasing raw materials costs are being absorbed at the mfg. level, and they are strongly pressuring their suppliers to recover that. The owner of one company related to me that two of their suppliers were in last week, begging them not to shift suppliers because of their higher prices. I think in most areas of the country the housing market starts to roll over regardless of IR. Prices have gone too high to be supported by the flat wage picture and these zero down, interest only loans, 50% of stated income allocation, are the last gasps of desperation to keep the party going. In some large markets it has already happened. Denver, Atlanta, and Houston are examples. Rural prices may be the last to roll, as some people flee the cities.

 

We all pretty much know the bond picture. If furriners abandon their absorption rates of our paper, AG may be almost forced to chase the yield curve. He may just choose to retire instead and leave printing press Bernake with his legacy. Hard to say what kind of reaction on a global scale that might engender. or exactly how PP Bernake will respond when faced with the realities.

 

Silver has a wild ride on Friday but managed to end with a small gain, while gold still under heavy manipulation, lost ground. The ratio is at about 52:1. Still a huge shift required to achieve normalcy.

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The country's top history magazine is casting doubt on the official account of a pivotal event for Canadians during the Second World War: the purported attack by a Japanese submarine on a Vancouver Island lighthouse.

 

Join Us Eh?

So I was thinknig, did they sink the lighthouse, so I went a read the article. The new sceptical view fits right into the long proven history of modern methods of manufacturing consent for war. The best example is perhaps Churchill, who with the Admiralty knew German subs were off the Irish coast as the Lusitania approached and ordered no warning to be issued to her. You can guess why. Taking these stories too far is a danger and the meme attributing 9/11 to the administrations direct preknowledge is terribly destructive to discussion of what's important, our path since.

 

In this case, admittedly ignorant as I am of Canada's WWII entry, I find it hard to believe this incident played much of a part in mobilizing support for the war.

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The country's top history magazine is casting doubt on the official account of a pivotal event for Canadians during the Second World War: the purported attack by a Japanese submarine on a Vancouver Island lighthouse.

 

Join Us Eh?

So I was thinknig, did they sink the lighthouse, so I went a read the article. The new sceptical view fits right into the long proven history of modern methods of manufacturing consent for war. The best example is perhaps Churchill, who with the Admiralty knew German subs were off the Irish coast as the Lusitania approached and ordered no warning to be issued to her. You can guess why. Taking these stories too far is a danger and the meme attributing 9/11 to the administrations direct preknowledge is terribly destructive to discussion of what's important, our path since.

 

In this case, admittedly ignorant as I am of Canada's WWII entry, I find it hard to believe this incident played much of a part in mobilizing support for the war.

Indeed, the Admiralty was part and parcel to the sinking of Lusitania.

ROOM 202, author unknown, details Ian Flemmings work at the Admiralty and the necessity to protect information garnered from the code-breaking efforts. The same is in much evidence at Pearl Harbor.

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LLD: I hear you, great post, yours as well Yobob. Listen, I may have told you I part own/manage a temp staffing firm. Believe me, I have never seen the job mkt in such tatters. Obviously that number yd was total bullshit. The fact that bonds blew up, with all the leverage and the crowded carry trade, will take its toll on stocks, however, for 20+ years, stock guys have ALways been the last to get the picture.

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Attn: Yobob1

 

I am desperate to turn bearish, but I can't fight the tape just yet. How is the RV business? Breakout on Winnebago on Friday. Is this for real???

 

Every stock I try to short gets Steve McQueened to new highs.........

 

How is your business doing??

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Attn: Soup

 

How is the temp business??

 

Looks like things are picking up, based on the price action on Monster Worldwide and all the employment agency stocks, headhunters, etc.

 

I'd like to believe that the jobs report was faked, but what if I'm wrong and the tape is right??

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Wndy: The employment biz has never ( in my 12 years) been worse. Some of that is due to the maturation of the biz and the resulting hyper competiveness, but the bottom line: No one wants to hire. Yd's report was total BS, although of course the mkt's reaction is what counts. Personally I think the number backfires in a big way. The tell is the bond mkt, with all its attendant leverage, and the extremely crowded carry trade.

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Talking to folks around the country in my biz, the basic attitude is that it has to get better. Many have ( these are all independent companies, so I am talking to owners) taken on debt to stay in the game. Incredible how fast the biz went from growing ( many taking on new offices) to how can we get out of long term leases. Our last meeting the main topic was how to get out of long term leases. I still think, although I could certainly be wrong, that those who have the least amount of debt will lose the least.

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Talking to folks around the country in my biz, the basic attitude is that it has to get better. Many have ( these are all independent companies, so I am talking to owners) taken on debt to stay in the game. Incredible how fast the biz went from growing ( many taking on new offices) to how can we get out of long term leases. Our last meeting the main topic was how to get out of long term leases. I still think, although I could certainly be wrong, that those who have the least amount of debt will lose the least.

I'm so sick of this Green$spermed "Alice in Repoland" Wonderland for stocks.

 

Talking about getting out of leases, how is Gateway going to offload 188 retail stores? Do they just default on their leases and walk??

 

Will landlords chase down CEO Ted Waitte and try to grab him by the ponytail or the cowtail??

 

How about the 3500 employees being laid off??

 

Guess they can work at SBUX, who is adding 1500 stores per year.

 

As usual, Gateway is Bonered Up 12% on ALL TIME RECORD VOLUME.

 

I'm so sick of missing out on these Boner Jams and getting shanked on the short side.

 

Thank god I still have a huge position in gold stocks.........

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If yesterday represents the start of a true long term trend change in bonds ... and I am not yet 100% certain that it does (remember last summer's bond action), even though I believe it is coming ... eventually ..., then commodes and PMs may stall at this juncture. Gold may have risk back down to $357 per ounce (barring some geopolitical "event"). Copper likely, then, has risk back to about $ 1.00 per pound. PD may be a reasonable short here.

 

The homebuilders will definitely be great shorts. However, between now and the election could still be a rollercoaster ride with them. I covered my TOL and LEN shorts yesterday, because we may still see some bounce here short term, as I too do not 100% believe the "blowout" jobs report.

 

If the Nikkers continues its ascent, and if the JGBs continue to fall, then the direction of T-bones will be down. As always, time will tell.

 

"T-bones ... T-bones ... we don't need no stinkin' T-bones !!"

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Trip To The Great Wall

 

Will It Hold

 

Will Treasury suctions and Stingy Al offset IRA Flows? Will Uncle Fuku really be a no show? If so, it's catastrophic. Place your bets now. One way or another, the bullshit walks by April 15.

 

Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW!

 

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

 

By the way, I have seen the April 5 date bandied about as a major turn date under Gann, spiral calendar, etc. That works for me. There are a lot of factors coming together this week. The two Treasury auctions are, in my view, the most important in the history of the world.

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State plan calls for mass layoffs

More than 4,000 DHS workers to lose jobs by end of 2006

 

By LAURA B. MARTINEZ

The Brownsville Herald

 

April 3, 2004 ? More than 4,000 state employees will lose their jobs over the next two years under a plan touted to improve public access to federal programs and save the state millions of dollars.

 

The Texas Department of Health and Human Services Commission?s plan calls for the opening of three call centers that will result in the closure of 217 field offices and the loss of 4,487 state jobs.

 

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/ts_more.p...=58614_0_10_0_M

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