Big Doo Doo Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 Sinclair also addressing the issue of gold confiscation tonight ... very interesting ! http://www.jsmineset.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 stained jeans.....link below is good explanation for taylor book or LSS method. http://www.nqoos.com/Articles_and_Reprints/LSS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 I can't believe Bernanke today - his comments about lack of jobs being due to high productivity all of a sudden. This is what passes for leadership in this society? It appears to me to be prima facie evidence that this country is being intentionally ridden into the ground. Look at it this way - IBM or Bayer or any company that does R&D to develop new products and improve old ones, could simply cut all their R&D staff tomorrow, but go right on selling their current products just as usual. Voila! Massive increase in productivity (and profits) almost immediately! Utopia! Well, wait a while. Within a couple years this company would collapse in a heap as customers look for partners who are going to be around long term. I see no difference in the current state of the US. The reason productivity isn't supposed to get so high is that there is always supposed to be a "next thing" for folks to be working on. Evidently this is not the case in the US these days, either because there are no funds to invest, or worthwhile projects to invest them in. High productivity numbers are the coiled spring that sprung though it was never supposed to, the "jack" that jumped out of the box to everyone's surprise and now no one knows how to stuff jack back in the box again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 mjkst27.......everybody living in inner cities should immediately cultivate friendships with guys named "Snake", Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest libertas Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 The high productivity is due to the increasing use of imported components and subassemblies. This saves US labor. Example: Item selling for $200, counts for $200 of GDP. Takes 2 hours of US labor at $50/hr. Materials cost and profit is the rest. Say we do 1 hour of the of the assembly overseas, costs $10/hour plus $5/shipping. Item now counts for $185 of GDP ($200-$15) but only takes 1 hour of labor. There we are, productivity soared. Profit went up by $35. Everyone happy except the guy whose hour of labor just went away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 I can't believe Bernanke today - his comments about lack of jobs being due to high productivity all of a sudden. This is what passes for leadership in this society? It appears to me to be prima facie evidence that this country is being intentionally ridden into the ground. Look at it this way - IBM or Bayer or any company that does R&D to develop new products and improve old ones, could simply cut all their R&D staff tomorrow, but go right on selling their current products just as usual. Voila! Massive increase in productivity (and profits) almost immediately! Utopia! Well, wait a while. Within a couple years this company would collapse in a heap as customers look for partners who are going to be around long term. I see no difference in the current state of the US. The reason productivity isn't supposed to get so high is that there is always supposed to be a "next thing" for folks to be working on. Evidently this is not the case in the US these days, either because there are no funds to invest, or worthwhile projects to invest them in. High productivity numbers are the coiled spring that sprung though it was never supposed to, the "jack" that jumped out of the box to everyone's surprise and now no one knows how to stuff jack back in the box again. Great insights, mjk. Productivity is a residual number ... the theoretical, ephemeral difference between two imperfectly measured time series. I don't pay the slightest attention to it ... it doesn't mean sh*t on a stick. Nominal GDP is growing at a feeble 6% annual rate. By underestimating inflation at 2%, they infer real growth at 4%. Then since this amazing growth has been achieved with no increase in the labor force, productivity is said to be soaring. All wrong. All BS. Inflation is much higher than they think. Real growth, much lower. Productivity -- in the tank. Sucking wind, tainted with virulent Mycobacterium tuberculosum. And as mjk presciently warns, the next great killer app which the researchers are supposed to be bringing forth, may have died on the vine, or have been outsourced, or defunded. The chickens are coming home to roost. And they have bird flu ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 Yes- MJK -I agree as well-this from Yahoo news chocked me up-"87 yr old Radio Flyer Inc. announced it was closing its Chicago plant and moving production of its metal Red Wagons loved by generations of American children....to China-laying off 90 employee's" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 or more simply...Al Green used to live in a log cabin with a roaring fire to keep him warm. One summer he got lazy and didn't cut and stack. When winter came he quickly burned through some meager wood scraps, then began burning the roof and walls that sheltered him. The temperature near his body remained absolutely constant 70 degrees all winter. Maybe he even made it through to spring. But next winter he SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 Sinclair also addressing the issue of gold confiscation tonight ... very interesting ! http://www.jsmineset.com Jim Liles says the gold "confiscation" in the 30's was to bail out the banks, since currency was still based on a gold standard. States there is a zero percent chance of this ever happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 Plagues, pestilence, Al Queda, Nukes, fertilizer bombs, suicide bombers, bird flu, Sars, Hiv, etc. and now Attack of the Cicada's Get ready, Brood X is coming. This May billions of black, shrimp-size bugs with transparent wings and beady red eyes will carpet trees in the U.S. from the eastern seaboard west through Indiana and south to Tennessee. By the end of June they'll be gone, not to be heard from or seen again for 17 years. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...29_cicadas.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 Sinclair also addressing the issue of gold confiscation tonight ... very interesting ! http://www.jsmineset.com Jim Liles says the gold "confiscation" in the 30's was to bail out the banks, since currency was still based on a gold standard. States there is a zero percent chance of this ever happening again. anyone who states that there is a 0% chance of anything is either a God or a fool for the record I do not believe confiscation is probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accident Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 "Nominal GDP is growing at a feeble 6% annual rate. By underestimating inflation at 2%, they infer real growth at 4%. Then since this amazing growth has been achieved with no increase in the labor force, productivity is said to be soaring. All wrong. All BS. Inflation is much higher than they think. Real growth, much lower. Productivity -- in the tank. Sucking wind, tainted with virulent Mycobacterium tuberculosum." - so says Machinehead.... Understated inflation connects the dots....You hit the nail on the head...nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 I can't believe Bernanke today - his comments about lack of jobs being due to high productivity all of a sudden. This is what passes for leadership in this society? It appears to me to be prima facie evidence that this country is being intentionally ridden into the ground. Look at it this way - IBM or Bayer or any company that does R&D to develop new products and improve old ones, could simply cut all their R&D staff tomorrow, but go right on selling their current products just as usual. Voila! Massive increase in productivity (and profits) almost immediately! Utopia! Well, wait a while. Within a couple years this company would collapse in a heap as customers look for partners who are going to be around long term. I see no difference in the current state of the US. The reason productivity isn't supposed to get so high is that there is always supposed to be a "next thing" for folks to be working on. Evidently this is not the case in the US these days, either because there are no funds to invest, or worthwhile projects to invest them in. High productivity numbers are the coiled spring that sprung though it was never supposed to, the "jack" that jumped out of the box to everyone's surprise and now no one knows how to stuff jack back in the box again. Great insights, mjk. Productivity is a residual number ... the theoretical, ephemeral difference between two imperfectly measured time series. I don't pay the slightest attention to it ... it doesn't mean sh*t on a stick. Nominal GDP is growing at a feeble 6% annual rate. By underestimating inflation at 2%, they infer real growth at 4%. Then since this amazing growth has been achieved with no increase in the labor force, productivity is said to be soaring. All wrong. All BS. Inflation is much higher than they think. Real growth, much lower. Productivity -- in the tank. Sucking wind, tainted with virulent Mycobacterium tuberculosum. And as mjk presciently warns, the next great killer app which the researchers are supposed to be bringing forth, may have died on the vine, or have been outsourced, or defunded. The chickens are coming home to roost. And they have bird flu ... I know of a senior Vp who made his career doing exactly that. He'd come into a business group, pare R&D down to the bone, close down new product lines that had not been given sufficient time in the marketplace and hey presto, show a miraculous turn around in profit. Then he'd get promoted to run a bigger group in different business area and do the same thing and repeat same results of profit turn around. Each time, the group gets bigger. He now runs a Division. One thing I agree with is his position to MBAs. He has cut back the blanket acceptance of allowing people in his division to take them and he has a say in whether that person is allowed to go on them or not. (btw costs ~ $80k) They have to interview with him which has terrified the dufuses. If you don't have the confidence to go in front of a Vp, then you don't make the grade The problems are the guys who follow in his shoes. His scorched earth approach to business has killed all future products. They have a hell of a time demonstrating why they can't repeat the profit growth. Shareholder Value my Arse. Show me the money (aka stock options) more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 anyone who states that there is a 0% chance of anything is either a God or a fool I,, Captain of the log, cross my fingers and state in a loud voice that "I have zero chance of counting to infinity". CASE FOR GOD: My friends say I bear a resemblance to Budha since I smile a lot and have a big beer belly. CASE FOR FOOL : They also say I am a stupid fecking idjoit who spends too much time reading bear discussion boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted March 31, 2004 Report Share Posted March 31, 2004 Watch the 1124.43 spx number. If we close below that tomorrow we have a monthly key reversal. Will the boys allow that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.