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DrStool

Bumping Its Head

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Anybody who bought bonds last week is in a world of hurt today. Goodbye refi bubble. The collapse is dead ahead.

 

Here's what Doc wrote about the bonds guys last night in The Anals.

 

"Meanwhile, The Gang has dramatically increased their shorting as the T-Bond rally got increasingly hysterical. They borrowed $4 billion in securities from the Fed in the last 3 days. This is way, way above the recent norm, which has typically been, zero. Doc has tracked this data informally for a year or so. Whenever the dealers started to increase their borrowing of securities from the Fed, a downturn in the bond market (upturn in yield) has followed within days. We'll see if that works this time."

 

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This is just a little "punk rally".  Similar to mid April 02 or mid May 02 rallies, nothing more.

With the move on Uncle Buck today, I'd be cautious getting in front of this too soon.

Can't say about the rally in equities but I think thisis just dollat stabilization. I've felt for a year that they woul lower the dollar. They want to do it gradually tho. Delicate operation. Looks like they can kill two birds with one buck ramp today. :D

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The BoJ was talking last night about selling yen, if memory serves. Cool approach: "WE WILL BUY THIRTY YEAR BONDS" "WE WILL SELL YEN". It would be lovely if traders just started ignoring these statist bullies. Make them put their freaking money where their mouths are.

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CBOE Intra-day Put/Call

 

FWIW - the 9:00 AM CST total Put/Call is incorrect by CBOE numbers. It should be 1.18 not .93

post-3-1041532682_thumb.gif

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Another One: I posted this last week re: dollar/CHF

 

"Meta,

 

Not sure. It is so closely correlated with gold that I trade it using the gold and dollar charts. CHF tracks gold very very closely and unlike gold no one pretends that there isn't massive intervention. That is what the ESF stated purpose is. So the feed index becomes very important in timing these trades.

 

 

The great thing is that currencies generally move very slowly in relation to the rest of the market. I based this hedge on the gold chart along with an anticipated jam next week. I have been holding these options for over a year!

 

This hedge is a very short term trade. I plan on holding for 10 days to 2 weeks at the most.

 

The intervention in holding down CHF has been a complete joke. They desperately tried to hold it below .70 and would short it every day at the same time gold was shorted just before the NY open. Over time it has taken less and less time to recover. As recently as 3 weeks ago they were pushing it down as much as .6% per day and it was completely recovering within 1-2 hours and rising.

 

I don't know where the line in the sand is but in my experience all CHF intervention correlates to gold spot intervention. Monday and Tuesday will be important days.

 

If they don't do anything I may lighten up on the hedge Monday or Tuesday. We shall see.

 

These options expire in March so I really don't need to do much of anything either way because I know where we are headed long term. Just wanted to cover some profit because it felt right."

 

Hope this helps

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yes the BoJ wanred about intervention, but is unlikely that they did, usdjpy was quite a bit away from its recent low, but japanese usually intervene when they have suckked in the last shortie, the market wasnt heavy wshort usdjpy, but the market was heavy heavy heavy long euro, gbp and chf.

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I suspect this may stay stuck in a very narrow range for a day or three. No follow through, no downside.

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I bought KCS at 1.80 on Tuesday. It's trading at 1.95 this morning. Thinking about taking the quick profit, but I still like the chart. I mean, I really like the chart...talking about for the next week or so.

 

What do you think? Sell or hang in there?

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yes the BoJ wanred about intervention, but is unlikely that they did, usdjpy was quite a bit away from its recent low, but japanese usually intervene when they have suckked in the last shortie, the market wasnt heavy wshort usdjpy, but the market was heavy heavy heavy long euro, gbp and chf.

Bounce was due

post-3-1041533478.gif

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from PruBear board:

 

"Tuesday, I sat at the NBC affiliate in Tucson for the duration of Business Center program on Crapvision. Technical difficulties with the satellite connection prevented my appearance.

 

They attempted to correct the problem by computer from New York, but to no avail. Later, it was decided that the breakdown occurred at a connection station in North Carolina.

 

Today, Thursday, Jan 2, Crapvision is sending a truck from Phoenix with satellite capability to my home for another try at 5:45pm EST.

 

We're keeping our fingers crossed for this one.

 

All best regards for the New Year.

 

Arch Crawford

Crawford Perspectives"

 

see? and all you folks were wound up over a conspiracy theory. shame shame

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The 5 hr and 8 day cycles are in a sideways down phase unless they take out the 1:30 PM low. Not enough upside inthe 5-8 day cmaps to consider a dong.

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I wonder if Arch heard about pretzl's remix?

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I bought KCS at 1.80 on Tuesday. It's trading at 1.95 this morning. Thinking about taking the quick profit, but I still like the chart. I mean, I really like the chart...talking about for the next week or so.

 

What do you think? Sell or hang in there?

I know you don't need any advice from me. :D

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