BarBu Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Here is the chart I posted on Feb 27, BarBu Posted on: Feb 27 2004, 07:00 PM The best way to describe my guess is illustrated in the chart. If Nutsduck is in wave 4, we may see an new up wave, wave 5, either breaches late high or creates new high,,,. If Nustduck is in a new down wave series, wave 1, then wave 2 has less chance to breach the late high.... Erniek posted his translation for Mathias' latest work Soure: http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs...2&usernm=erniek See attached chart In essence: (1) The ultimate target of B, as mentioned many times before, is in the area of NDX 1080-1150 (2) The pattern from last week shows that it is possible that this current rebound ends at around NDX 1440. the downwards price goal would then be around NDX 1390, although an extension to 1360 or so isn't out of the question (3) The alternative is that we still make one more run up towards NDX1600 as a final high. If you compare Mathias' call NDX low 1080-1150 and high NDX 1600 with Alan Newman's call, there is good correlation: High Targets for 2004 (moderate odds): Dow 10889 /// SPX 1175 /// Nasdaq Composite 2199 Low Targets for 2004 (high odds): Dow 8500 /// SPX 900 /// Nasdaq Composite 1600 If Mathias' wave B is correct, his wave call suggests that we could see new high in the coming wave C, this is too early to judge. Edit: My point is that the E-wave does not have the superior "extrapolation" power as some ctitics have tried to imply. Use it with flexibility does help. As IKE's Gusest consensus shows, the speculation is equally divided: ike? Posted: Mar 13 2004, 01:48 PM As of 3-12-04 our GUEST CONSENsUS is MODESTLY BEARISH with (15) BULLS (23) BEARS (18) NEUTRAL http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5097 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 I like to look for stocks with more volume than those two. It's good to have liquidity and a tight bid/ask spread if you need to get out quick. Looks like the second one listed just doubled in one day? Tanks Plunger. What is your threshhold for daily volume? TIA i look for stocks doing above 2 million: 4-6 million is a nice number and gives the trader good exit and entry points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Rydex and Profunds offer negative SP500 funds at 100%, 150%, and 200%. I dipped into the profunds x1.5 inverse yield fund but when I wanted to GTFO, found there was a $70 fee even if swapping between funds since it was under 6 months holding. Since I was shorting T-bonds that much to my horror, going lower wrt yields, decided to eat that hit. (?Good decision turned out). My expereince has been that Rydex fees are not so explicit if you feck up. They assume intras-fund activities are going to occur and you pay a transaction fee rather than a penalty fee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 The Financial Times confirms its status as a Matrix bullhorner and fiat currency purveyor: The IMF needs considerable reform: its voting structure is out of date; its resources are too small; The IMF's Next Chief Britain used to have two great independent business newspapers, the FT and The Economist. Both have long since been bought out and co-opted by Matrix interests. Though they do offer better global coverage than the painfully provincial U.S. press, you still have to read between the lines to filter out the lies and propaganda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 frnacisco, no i dont wanna start something here. For the dollar i wanna wait till open of european session at 2 am NY time for clues. Charts favour an upmove in euro and gbp, so dollar down. But market sometimes reacts a bit unnormal when surpirse things happen like Conservative Party loses elections in spain. And sicne financial market have a conservative bias they maybe will react not that friendly to euro tomorrow morning. I think that elections in spain are of minor importance for the markets and the euro exchange rate, but i'm not the market. foxie-- it is telling to me that you didn't even mention the ETA/AQ potential revesal and the potential empacts. Others have said markets will have a down day tommorow based on the emergence of the AQ link. I expect that would have already been priced in on Friday whether ETA was suggested or not.... I will watch Nikkei for a hint. I was quoting Michael Jackson earlier: I Said You Wanna Be Startin' Somethin' You Got To Be Startin' Somethin' I Said You Wanna Be Startin' Somethin' You Got To Be Startin' Somethin' It's Too High To Get Over (Yeah, Yeah) Too Low To Get Under (Yeah, Yeah) You're Stuck In The Middle (Yeah, Yeah) And The Pain Is Thunder (Yeah, Yeah) It's Too High To Get Over (Yeah, Yeah) Too Low To Get Under (Yeah, Yeah) You're Stuck In The Middle (Yeah, Yeah) And The Pain Is Thunder (Yeah, Yeah) so I meant it lightly, but saying Bush will win in a landslide (in contrast to the Spanish reaction of unseating the PP) is a way of saying Americans are more sheeplike than the Spaniards. And although I probably agree, I found myself adequately provoked to quote Jacko. Cheers. FXFOX, dont you think a major terrorist attack on european soil might be a bit bearish in the ST for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 anyone know a mutual fund (for IRA account) that is inverse SP500? BEARX has super underperformed on the recent dives, and severely punished on any rise at all. Would prefer 1:1 not double BEARX was my first fling shorting the Y2K bull, went from a 3 to 5 handle before I got out. I've read their prospectus on a number of occasions; it is actively managed and NOT a mirror for the inverse SnP. Makes a lot of assumptions about what sectors will be bullish/bearish in an overall market decline. My father chose Jimmy Rogers' fund not ago, and has been handsomely rewarded to date. I like Tice, but his philosophy is to find/short the next Enron,Tyco or Sunbeam rather than make sizeable index bets. More like a speculator's fund for clothesless emporers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Plunger, Had dinner last night with old friends who are in the same boat I'm in, looking for good value in buying a retirement home somewhere. Their choice is Cape Cod (too cold for me), but they can't seem to find anything they would want to live in for less than 700K-800K. A big problem for them is that their beautiful home in Sidney, Ohio hasn't appreciated much at all, so they aren't even close to a trade up. My guess is that you're right and that there will be a stunning shakeout in the housing market. But I wonder how many boomers are in this same boat, watching and waiting. Chi- Start thinking as if you were a Chicagoan--for example searching for your own permanent retirement home,unless it were Rosehill,is a little premature:the search,given all of our post-apocalyptic imagery, should be a permanent safe refuge for all of your bullion,shares ,forign bonds annuities etc-- As for your personal home you might begin by envisioning a seriies of apartments randomly rented, as various sectors of the globe-- become unihabitable--I see myself ,for instance, as riding on a horse and wagon ,with Maria Ouskinspaya riding shotgun ,both of us 'neath a misty moon,her rather unkempt hairy son hiding in the wagon moaning beneath some heavy Persian carpets-- Meanwhile I pay enormous rents to house my "assets" in a cool lead lined Swiss grotto--composed of 6000 jars of greek olives--all reserved for the day that starts the post apocalyptic partying and merrymaking when made Manahattens will require the obligatory olive-- beardrech-- :cry: What else d'ya have shacked wid yer olives? 20,000 1929 calenders--Aged to perfection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 PMs responding ... Gold up $2.30, Silver up .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 The Financial Times confirms its status as a Matrix bullhorner and fiat currency purveyor: The IMF needs considerable reform: its voting structure is out of date; its resources are too small; The IMF's Next Chief Britain used to have two great independent business newspapers, the FT and The Economist. Both have long since been bought out and co-opted by Matrix interests. Though they do offer better global coverage than the painfully provincial U.S. press, you still have to read between the lines to filter out the lies and propaganda. More money for the IMF to waste on Turkey, Brazil, and Argentina? In Japan, a former British ambassador confirms his status as a Matrix operative too - by condoning the most rapid expansion of a G-7s country's monetary base in the post WWII period. Kyodo News Service; Mar 14, 2004 David Wright, a former British ambassador to Japan and now senior executive at a British investment bank, has praised Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui for fighting against deflation during his first year in office. "Mr. Fukui has maintained a very clear stance on the question of beating deflation," said Wright, vice chairman of Barclays Capital, referring to the BOJ's aggressive action under Fukui's quantitative credit-easing policy. Wright expects the BOJ to stick to its current policy framework at least until "about a year from now" despite waning deflationary pressure and consumer prices moving up close to zero percent on a year-on-year basis. Fukui has said the BOJ will maintain its quantitative easing policy, which is unprecedented in the history of central banks, until year-on-year changes in the consumer price index stabilize at or above zero percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 anyone know a mutual fund (for IRA account) that is inverse SP500? BEARX has super underperformed on the recent dives, and severely punished on any rise at all. Would prefer 1:1 not double My father chose Jimmy Rogers' fund not ago, and has been handsomely rewarded to date. I like Tice, but his philosophy is to find/short the next Enron,Tyco or Sunbeam rather than make sizeable index bets. More like a speculator's fund for clothesless emporers. What's the symbol for that fund? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Prices for all grades of gasoline rose 1.34 cents in the last two weeks to a record high nationwide average of $1.77 a gallon, according to a study released Sunday. Gas 'n Go It's a good thing there's no inflation. I'm confident that many of my other personal expenses will be falling, to compensate for this freak outlier event. NOT! Got crude? Ecuador does, they just ran out of pipelines though: Ecuador's Second Oil Pipeline Closed After Landslide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Prince Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Porter he has a web site, do a google search on it. beardrech can't find Maria O on a google search, inside joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 frnacisco, no i dont wanna start something here. For the dollar i wanna wait till open of european session at 2 am NY time for clues. Charts favour an upmove in euro and gbp, so dollar down. But market sometimes reacts a bit unnormal when surpirse things happen like Conservative Party loses elections in spain. And sicne financial market have a conservative bias they maybe will react not that friendly to euro tomorrow morning. I think that elections in spain are of minor importance for the markets and the euro exchange rate, but i'm not the market. The read on this whole affair is that Al Queda is now emboldened by the reality that it's actions effected a democratic election. To the extent that markets are vulnerable to election results (esp USA this fall), it just introduces another event risk into the wild card of world markets. This election loss was very serious to those wanting to separate terror from the markets. As such, favor Machinehead's "slow realization" scenario. re: gold - I've alternated long/short XAU repeatedly over the past 3 years. I am now extremely bullish, with a mental stop below 90. Many long term gold bulls are short term cautious here, and the funnmentals look great if we are entering the competitive devaluation phase. Listen to Ike's interviews this weekend to get a sense of the "expert" consensus. Perfect setup for a rocket launch, but I may wait till after the FOMC to add to my long position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Interesting approach to a growing problem in the industrialized world: Robots as caregivers to an ageing population Musicians look out -Outsourcing by another name. Heard a clip on the news where I thought they didn't sound too bad. However, Just wait till they start playing electric guitar and drums. I can see it now - the late night software parties, mechanical groupies, robots overdosing on WD40. It will only end in tears :grin: This is no joke--it only lacks a premonitory vision of an adolescent generation's use of these toys--the day when a hyper-venerealized super-eroticised fanatically hygeine conscious adolescent populatiion will begin to pin corsages on these bugle blowing suckers on Prom night-- beardrech :cry: Well son--How was your date last night? Crap Dad,the bitch had 250,000 miles on her and no oil cchange for a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 15, 2004 Report Share Posted March 15, 2004 Plunger, Had dinner last night with old friends who are in the same boat I'm in, looking for good value in buying a retirement home somewhere. Their choice is Cape Cod (too cold for me), but they can't seem to find anything they would want to live in for less than 700K-800K. A big problem for them is that their beautiful home in Sidney, Ohio hasn't appreciated much at all, so they aren't even close to a trade up. My guess is that you're right and that there will be a stunning shakeout in the housing market. But I wonder how many boomers are in this same boat, watching and waiting. Chi- Start thinking as if you were a Chicagoan--for example searching for your own permanent retirement home,unless it were Rosehill,is a little premature:the search,given all of our post-apocalyptic imagery, should be a permanent safe refuge for all of your bullion,shares ,forign bonds annuities etc-- As for your personal home you might begin by envisioning a seriies of apartments randomly rented, as various sectors of the globe-- become unihabitable--I see myself ,for instance, as riding on a horse and wagon ,with Maria Ouskinspaya riding shotgun ,both of us 'neath a misty moon,her rather unkempt hairy son hiding in the wagon moaning beneath some heavy Persian carpets-- Meanwhile I pay enormous rents to house my "assets" in a cool lead lined Swiss grotto--composed of 6000 jars of greek olives--all reserved for the day that starts the post apocalyptic partying and merrymaking when made Manahattens will require the obligatory olive-- beardrech-- :cry: What else d'ya have shacked wid yer olives? 20,000 1929 calenders--Aged to perfection dude, martinis get an olive.... i think manhattans get a cherry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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