Show Of Force

[wndysrf]

Today, the BOJ and the ECB exhibited an Epic Show of Force, coordinated by the John Law II HedgeFund.

 

As the trade deficit and confidence numbers sent the dollar rolling into the Abyss, and gold launched higher, a huge Global Intervention took place to Stick Save the hapless U.S. Peso.

 

From CBS Marketwatch:

 

Rumors swirled through the markets that the European Central Bank or another European national bank had sold euros to drive the single currency lower.

 

Gary Noone, a currency anal cyst at MMS in London, cited speculation that German banks were acting on behalf of the Bundesbank or European Central Bank.

 

"I'm confident it was not the ECB," said Marc Chandler, an anal cyst at HSBC in New York. He said large traders sold as much as 1 billion euros through a German bank, thus fueling the rumors.

 

The move had all the trademarks of central bank intervention, another anal cyst said. "This is way greater than any profit-taking when the currency drops 1 cent in less than 15 minutes," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency anal cyst at MG Financial in New York.

 

Once again, the John Law II HedgeFund has proven that it is bigger than the markets.

 

Any and all financial dislocations can be and will be arrested.

 

Turn on the printing presses, grab the confetti, and start throwing it into the Open Mouth of the Derivative Colossus, staffed with young GameCube traders, able to use the free money to buy or sell futures with lightning speed with .001 second executions.

 

For any impaired asset, there is a willing buyer. The Federal Reserve Open Mouth.

 

For any currency, regardless of the trillions of volume traded per day, there is a Central Bank which is bigger than the market, able to turn the tide in another direction.

 

Of course, the Central Banks are able to profit on these trades, since they are given the "heads up" in advance by Al Leeson.

 

Even third world countries are being heavily recruited into the John Law II HedgeFund.

 

Especially China.

 

Why not? Such easy profits to be had. Minute by minute scalps and trades, using billions of dollars, taking it out of the hides of the private speculators.

 

For any Central Bank who wishes to particpate, its Free Trading Profits.

 

Waxie would be jealous.

 

From today's Wall Struck Journal:

 

"Beijing may soon allow some of the nation's social-security funds to flow into overseas equity markets, easing pressure on the yuan."

 

"Grappling with the unintended effects of rapid economic growth, China's central bank is seeing its options narrowed by the current dollar peg. The People's Bank of China must purge foreign currency from the system with twice a week "sterilizations" by buying dollars from commercial banks, replacing them with yuan and then issuing to the banks short-term bills to sop up the money in circulation. Yet they can barely keep pace with a flood of foreign exchange that swelled reserves last year by $160 billion."

 

So there you have it.

 

The Perpetual Motion Machine, designed and built by the John Law II HedgeFund, guarantees prosperity by choking the globe with U.S. Dollars.

 

The more U.S. Pesos which are created out of thin air, the more are sent to China, who seeks to offload them by roundtripping them back to the U.S. Stock and Bond Markets.

 

A Virtuous Circle.

 

And of course, higher stock prices are self-validating.

 

Higher stock prices mean a better economy, which means higher weekly store sales at WalMart, which means more production for China, which means more U.S. dollars sent there, which means more roundtripping of those dollars back into U.S. T-Bones and stocks, fueling lower mortgage rates, higher stock prices, and further acceleration of consumer spending.

 

Quite simply, an Economic Miracle.

 

And nothing can stop it, as long as the Central Banks remain bigger than the market, able to execute a massive Show of Force to any and all speculators betting that this Ponzi Scheme can be taken down.

[machinehead]

Last month (Jan. 2004) had the third-highest mutual fund inflows in history:

 

 

The first and second-place inflows occurred in Jan. and Feb. 2000. And you know what happened after that. :shocked

 

Bubble II mania ignites

[soup]

Machine: I posted that this a.m. Contrary investors have done a lot of with inflows, they have found extremes often signal a change in trend.

[beardrech]

Last month (Jan. 2004) had the third-highest mutual fund inflows in history:

 

 

The first and second-place inflows occurred in Jan. and Feb. 2000. And you know what happened after that. :shocked

 

Bubble II mania ignites

wyndy and mh

"The open mouth committee"

 

rUMOUR HAS IT THAT ALL OF THE parents within the borders of the continents,europe,and asia. are prepared,whenever asked, to throw their Firstborn into the open mouth of the financial Moloch---

 

beardrech :cry: Is it not right for one to sacrifice what is holy for a POT OF MESSAGE--

Please shut your mouth

 

off to work

[agent.5]

to throw their Firstborn into the open mouth of the financial Moloch---

I thought they already have pre-sold the future of their child, they are now selling the future of the grandchild.

[Silky_Xlax]

The Ultimate Word of Wisdom :

 

The ultimate top of this cyclical bull will be marked by falling prices

(Adam Hamilton)

[DrStool]

My guess is that the record inflows will continue right up to April 15.

 

Now if you have 3 months of world record inflows, would you not surmise that that's as good as it gets? I would further surmise that it will be followed by a vacuum.

 

Taxpayers are going to be hitting their Visa cards hard the next two months to pour into those IRA's. I'm am still very cautious about these next two months until the market tells me unequivocally otherwise.

 

More in your Weak End Anals.

 

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[wndysrf]

My guess is that the record inflows will continue right up to April 15.

 

Now if you have 3 months of world record inflows, would you not surmise that that's as good as it gets? I would further surmise that it will be followed by a vacuum.

 

Taxpayers are going to be hitting their Visa cards hard the next two months to pour into those IRA's. I'm am still very cautious about these next two months until the market tells me unequivocally otherwise.

BobBrinker has been crowing about the tax refund checks which will be hitting the streets and into the stock market early this year.

 

He says the lower tax rates will result in lots of refund checks.

 

Friends of mine who are experts at deciphering the Brinkman say he's likely to issue a sell signal this spring.

 

He's always a little early, so the market will probably top out in June.

[wndysrf]

Most of the silver stocks were roundtripped into the close.

 

Too strong a market.

 

The exception is HL.

 

HL is the "Trans-sexual" stock in the HUI.

 

Most high volume down days are bearish for stocks.

 

But as shown here, super high volume down days on HL have all been buying opportunities.

 

Opposite World of Cross-Dressing for Hecla.

hl

[wndysrf]

I had this one, but was shanked out of it on the clothesline drop on the Russell 2000 last week.

 

Looks like the next TASR

[Silky_Xlax]

My guess is that the record inflows will continue right up to April 15.

 

Now if you have 3 months of world record inflows, would you not surmise that that's as good as it gets? I would further surmise that it will be followed by a vacuum. 

 

Taxpayers are going to be hitting their Visa cards hard the next two months to pour into those IRA's.  I'm am still very cautious about these next two months until the market tells me unequivocally otherwise.

BobBrinker has been crowing about the tax refund checks which will be hitting the streets and into the stock market early this year.

 

He says the lower tax rates will result in lots of refund checks.

 

Friends of mine who are experts at deciphering the Brinkman say he's likely to issue a sell signal this spring.

 

He's always a little early, so the market will probably top out in June.

Then what about the accelerated capital depreciation that expire at the end of the year? like the one that lets a dry-cleaner buy a Hummvie and write it off?

 

Isn't that supposed to take the baton from the consumer?

 

BTW, is there any evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) of a new PC cycle - where old PC's are replaced every 4 years or so. Isnt that due right about now?

 

No evidence where I work - we're using the clunkers and as for replacement, there are plenty in the "shed" - of all the others who were laid off

[An Ant]

Close: The market turned south today under the weight of several items that implied negative implications for the economy... The Trade Balance widened to -$42.5 bln (consensus of -$40.0 bln) - its second largest in a year - as exports fell 0.2% in December... The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February also fell short of market expectations - falling to 93.1 in its preliminary reading (consensus of 103.3) - and threw cold water over the indices' initial attempts at rallying at the open...

Although the latter development wasn't that disturbing - considering the weak link between consumer spending and sentiment, it was enough to incite a broad-based pullback in stocks... Other developments also prompted traders to lighten positions ahead of the three-day weekend... Reports of a 'mysterious powder' at a New Jersey post office (which later tested negative) and a fire alarm at a Senate Building (prompted by a burnt bagel) were enough for traders to take some profits from the week's strength... As a result, the Nasdaq finished the week with slight losses, and the Dow and S&P 500 ended the week with slight gains...

 

So consumer sentiment is not that distrurbing. But a fire alarm caused by a burnt bagel is.

[GregFokker]

Close: The market turned south today under the weight of several items that implied negative implications for the economy... The Trade Balance widened to -$42.5 bln (consensus of -$40.0 bln) - its second largest in a year - as exports fell 0.2% in December... The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February also fell short of market expectations - falling to 93.1 in its preliminary reading (consensus of 103.3) - and threw cold water over the indices' initial attempts at rallying at the open...

Although the latter development wasn't that disturbing - considering the weak link between consumer spending and sentiment, it was enough to incite a broad-based pullback in stocks... Other developments also prompted traders to lighten positions ahead of the three-day weekend... Reports of a 'mysterious powder' at a New Jersey post office (which later tested negative) and a fire alarm at a Senate Building (prompted by a burnt bagel) were enough for traders to take some profits from the week's strength... As a result, the Nasdaq finished the week with slight losses, and the Dow and S&P 500 ended the week with slight gains...

 

So consumer sentiment is not that distrurbing. But a fire alarm caused by a burnt bagel is.

Slight losses indeed, but the NQ erased the whole week's gains. Anyone who donged the NQ after Friday and held was underwater as of today's close.

[fxfox]

I only knew that GBP would go down today, my thought was that cons. conf. would be good and would be used as an eyxcuses to tkae profits, people made large profits with gBP this week.

 

If that was only profit taking or if it was interventon cant definitely said right now, sources say that a german bank was used to sell euros and buy dollars inb a very big ammount. Could be that order came form ECB. Euor made a doulbe top today, so that there is profit taking isnt that big surprise, but they really clobbered it down, thats the thing where it is quite possible that it was intervention. The downmove didnt begin after trade balance data, it began after 10 am NY tiem, that is when options do expire. So they did let euro rise after con. conf. data, let it hit almost the former top and then started to sell, sell, sell.

 

As i said, if your name is ECB and you wanna intervene, then do it in US session, so that there is noc ahnce anymore for a xcounterintervention at the same day. Also do it late in the week to produce bearish candles in weekly.

 

What Greenspan did on tuesday was the sheer horror for europe. I hope todays punch at the forehead was a first warning. Dont do that again Alan. The weekend before Greenspans speech there was G7 and they made an agreement, but this old bum has nothing else to do than ramp up jsut 2 days later (sic!) the whole european currencies by 200-300 pips.

 

Someone msut bring a bit sanity to this market, it cant be that evry bum on this planet jsut can go long euro and get rich, this must stop. If the FED goes on with their game then it is quite likely that there will be currency war. ECB will not accept a further rapid rise of euro, wiht a range 1.20-1.30 i think they have not that big problem, but they dont let euro rise to 1.50, thats absolutely clear.

[Jimi]

Meanwhile, the pattern pair in Cycloops phase space is unfolding fairly well. The log of the Six by Ten Trin, as shown by its line chart, is cooperating fully. The complex coordinate, however, as shown by its line chart, is too high, and must scoot back down to the coral path in the coming months for the pattern pair to persist. That current high position of the complex coordinate is the fault of its Six by Ten CI-NCI Ratio component, which has been unexpectedly high for many months. This condition will soon start to be corrected, though, as the line chart of the pure CI-NCI Ratio predicts, but will take many months of negatively biased breadth to accomplish in full.

Critically Important Indecipherable Scribbles

 

Uhhh....

 

 

Umm.... so what you're saying is....

 

 

The cyclypoops thingie is indicitive of....

 

 

Can I just buy gold please?