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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell, Turdsday February 5

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Good morning, and welcome again to B4 the bell! B)

 

A tale of two cities today:

 

 

LONDON -- The Bank of England raised its main interest rate on Thursday for the second time in three months.

 

The quarter-point rise to 4 per cent was widely expected after recent official and survey data showed the economy was gathering momentum.

 

Many economists expect rates to end the year at 4.5 per cent through two more quarter-point rises after the monetary policy committee made clear last month that it wanted to moderate the growth of consumer demand by putting up the cost of borrowing through gradual rises.

 

 

 

TOKYO -- Bank of Japan board members Thursday voted unanimously to hold policy steady following their decision Jan. 20 to loosen monetary settings.

 

The decision was in line with market expectations, although a number of anal cysts have said a further easing is possible in coming months if the yen continues to appreciate against the dollar.

 

The BOJ left its account balance target at a range of Y30 trillion to Y35 trillion.

 

In an unchanged accompanying statement the BOJ said: "Should there be a risk of financial market instability, such as a surge in liquidity demand, the Bank will provide more liquidity irrespective of the above target."

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Yesterday we noted that the Naz had breached and then closed below it's 50 DMA.

 

Several stoolies said that Crapvision was screaming for everyone to buy the 50 !!!!!!!!

 

Well of course is expected by everyone and their brothers today and we will prolly get one but but the 50 is no sacred cow and the last 2 pullbacks gave ample opportunity to judge the situation

post-20-1075987034.png

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After growing at a 20-year high of 9.5 percent in the third quarter, productivity in the U.S. nonfarm business sector increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter. It was the slowest increase in productivity in a year. Unit labor costs dropped at a 1.3 percent rate in the quarter, down from the 5.6 percent decline in the third quarter. For all of 2003, productivity increased 4.2 percent, down from 2002's 4.9 percent. Unit labor costs fell 1.2 percent in 2003. Real hourly compensation increased at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. For all of 2003, real hourly compensation increased 0.6 percent, matching 2002 for the smallest gain in seven years

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Watch the 18 level on the VIX for a tell on which way we go. Moving above 18 will freak some people out.

 

http://139.142.147.218/StockChart_ImageOnl...=INX&ref_rate=0

 

 

 

 

RUT ROH !!!!!!

 

Asian Central Banks Consider

Alternatives to Big Dollar Holdings

 

By PHILLIP DAY and HAE WON CHOI

Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

 

A number of Asian central banks, among the biggest investors in U.S. government debt, are looking at alternative targets for their vast dollar holdings.

 

South Korea, looking for better returns, plans to hand over as much as $20 billion of its foreign-exchange reserves, which total the equivalent of $157 billion, to private fund managers next year. Taiwan wants to put some of its $200 billion of reserves toward helping local companies and diversifying the economy. Thailand will use $7 billion of reserves to pay off the foreign debts of its government agencies and state enterprises.

 

It isn't clear that Asian central banks will necessarily fund these plans by switching out of holdings of U.S. government debt. Asia's bigger central banks have estimated holdings totaling nearly $1 trillion of U.S. government bonds, including Treasurys, privately held government bonds and debt of government-sponsored agencies, such as mortgage buyer Fannie Mae (See related article).

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1075922...e_whats_news_us

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CHICAGO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Retailer Sears, Roebuck and Co. (S) on Thursday posted a 4.6 percent rise in January sales at domestic stores open at least a year, led by sales of home goods.

 

Hummm, no mention that sales store sales last year was -8%

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Morning crew-from the open for 68 minutes is the first turn, today is a full moon expect the unexpected. Lock n load. ;)

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I think anyone expecting 150K jobs being created tomorrow is in for serious disappointment. Of course, they could be created out of thin air or with a pen, which, I believe, will be the case if more than 50K are shown.

 

REUTERS  U.S. Treasuries trim losses on jobs surprise [DDWBJSP]

    NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Treasuries trimmed early losses

on Thursday after a soft set of weekly jobs data forced

short-covering from those betting the monthly labor report

would show a long-awaited rebound.

    Jobless claims rose to 356,000 last week from a revised

339,000 the week before, a surprise to anal cysts who had looked

for a slight dip.

    Still, the Labor Department blamed poor weather for some of

the uptick and, after two months of weak payrolls numbers,

traders estimate the risks are to the upside for the January

jobs report due on Friday.

    "People are still thinking 200,000 or more and the market's

short overall as a result," said one trader at a U.S. primary

dealer. Median forecasts are for payrolls to rise 150,000 but

estimates rise as high as 300,000.

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