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Guest yobob1

B4 The Bell Tuezleday

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Guest yobob1

The door is open. Here me now and listen to me later, the true deficit for this year will go to one trillion with accurate bean counting.

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The door is open. Here me now and listen to me later, the true deficit for this year will go to one trillion with accurate bean counting.

Cash basis federal borrowing is running at about a $700 billion rate in the first quarter. We'll see how the Treasury market digests that.

 

Interesting story that further confirms we are past Hubbert's Peak of energy production:

 

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

HOUSTON -- A prominent Houston energy anal cyst and investment banker is questioning whether Saudi Arabia will be able to continue playing the role of swing producer for the global oil market.

 

The kingdom, home to the world's largest oil reserves, has long provided a cushion of production that can quickly be called upon in times of tight oil markets. But Matt Simmons, a veteran energy expert best known for drawing early attention to North America's dwindling natural-gas supplies in the late 1990s, is preparing to publish research questioning Riyadh's ability to provide that cushion much longer.

 

"Any serious energy analysis should be cautionary that Saudi Arabia can always be the swing producer, let alone the biggest source of additional oil fueling global economic growth," said Mr. Simmons, the head of Houston-based energy investment bank Simmons & Co. "Saudi Arabia's oil production as we know it is remarkably fragile," he said in an interview.

 

Mr. Simmons warns that Saudi Arabia may face a production decline in the next five to 10 years as severe as Russia's early-1990s plunge. Mr. Simmons, a major political donor who informally advised George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential campaign, said his research grew out of his first-ever trip to Saudi Arabia last year.

 

If I can find the analysis talked about above, I'll post it or link it when it comes out.

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Guest yobob1

I'm straining to remember where I saw an analysis of global oil reserves yesterday. At any rate the charts showed a lot of strange changes in reserves in the ME. It once again pointed out that OPEC's production quotas are based on each countries reserves and those wishing to pump more only had to increase their stated reserves. Year after year countries showed the same reserves. Odd since the reserves should be falling as there was no new discoveries listed by those countries. It also showed countries with 50% increases in reserves with no outlays for exploration? The oil and NG companies themselves have every reason to show higher reserves and no reason to show lower reserves. Case in point, El Paso was recently forced to write down it's reserves as was Shell. Expect more of that, now that a few have been uncovered.

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morning crew! What happened last night?? we had a good discussion going and then Stool site went down???

Matrix running a check on the new market circuit breakers.

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Guest yobob1
morning crew! What happened last night?? we had a good discussion going and then Stool site went down???

Doc's wife was feeling neglected so she "accidentally" tripped over the plug. :lol:

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From Doc on IDS:

 

Finally, the server is restored after a nine hour outage. Wish I knew what the problem was.

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Guest Icky Twerp

Tests indicate deadly ricin found at Senate office

Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- Three Senate office buildings were closed today after a suspicious white powder, apparently delivered through the mail system, was found in the Senate majority leader's office. Officials said several preliminary tests -- but not all of them -- were positive for ricin, a deadly poison

 

What a "fortuitous" event:

 

1) Now nobody can say that the bio-terrorists were just attacking liberals

2) Senate (and its investigations of Stock Market, Iraq, Energy, etc) shut down

3) Greenspan will pump in response to the crisis

4) Treasury auction will benefit from "flight to safety"

5) Anti-gay position gains credibility from the idea that gay-terrorist targeted Frist

6) Bush benefits as anti-terrorist president

7) Patriot Act doesn't look so bad now, eh?

 

I'm sure Plunger can detail even more "benefits"...

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Guest Icky Twerp
The oil and NG companies themselves have every reason to show higher reserves and no reason to show lower reserves. Case in point, El Paso was recently forced to write down it's reserves as was Shell. Expect more of that, now that a few have been uncovered.

Filing by El Paso sets stage for bite

Proven reserves become hot topic

By LAURA GOLDBERG

Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle

 

El Paso Corp., which previously said it expected to reduce its proven natural gas and oil reserve estimates, described the planned drop on Monday as "a material negative revision."

 

The Houston company offered that characterization as part of a filing with securities regulators.

 

The issue of so-called proven reserves, a key number used in the energy industry for predicting the potential of oil and gas production, has been a hot topic since Royal Dutch/Shell Group's announcement last month that it was reducing its proven reserve base by 20 percent.

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maybe we are on the cusp of a real $ crisis.

Bond market still being supported by the BOJ. At this point my guess is that the BOJ will have to dump Japanese treasuires to pay for US Treasuries.

 

The dollar fell as low as ?105.25 overnight before bouncing back to ?105.80, on an estimated buying spree of up to $4 billion by the BOJ. Many market participants had expected the Japanese central bank to hold back from its periodic intervention in the days immediately leading up to the G7 meeting in Boca Raton, Fla., Friday and Saturday.

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