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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell, Frieday, Jan 30

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A deflation is never caused by debtors suddenly stopping to finance debt with more debt. There is no limit to the amount of debt that the distressed debtors are willing to take.

 

Deflation is caused by creditors pulling the plug on a whole economy. It happens when banks do not lend anymore because low interest rates do not cover the risk. It happens when savers take their money from the bank, because the bank is technically bankrupt. It happens when foreign banks stop buying treasuries to keep the dollar propped up.

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MH - How low for the Crb? Do you know ? Do you have an opinion?

I don't trade it short-term ... this is my third year of holding certain components of it. So I don't really have a number in mind.

 

The past two days were just a brief pop in the long-term dollar bear market, and a dip in the gold/commodity bull market, I think.

 

My stance on the commods is 'buy and hold,' ride out the dips, dollar average, etc. All the stuff they used to say about stocks, in other words. :D

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Thanks MH - looks to be still in the channel - if it holds, I will hang in.

The so-called dollar strength is against the euro. But the dollar is even lower against the J-yen (Y 105.68 now).

 

If the dollar can't rise even a fraction against the Asian currencies, then I think it's still pretty sick and the bottom hasn't been seen yet. Which will support commods.

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Liking the SM action right now!

 

Also, getting a pop over herre in gold land.

 

tny_au_en_usoz_2.gif

 

Action is good so far.

 

---------------------------------------

 

Agree with MH ont he dolor action. The complete non-confirm of the bounce by the Yen has to be troubling more than a few minds to the west. And the East.

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