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The Secrets Of Heaven And Hell

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As you may have guessed, once again I am posting this offering, live(?) from Green Witch towards the end of one of my longer "days" there. Simply don't trust the bod to get me up at 7:30 AM "tomorrow."

 

In addition, for at least the balance of the week, I will be operating with my friend Joel's 4-year-old Sony notebook with, I believe, a 230 MB hard drive and a similarly limited RAM. I believe this is just about adequate enough to get me into town to make this afternoon's offering. If it isn't, then . . . well, we'll cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

 

Meanwhile, today, the last day of the year, is Fartpolio Manager's first anniversary here. Happy Anniversary, FM!

 

The following, then, from inspiredinside.com (Author Unknown):

 

The old monk sat by the side of the road. With his eyes closed, his legs crossed and his hands folded in his lap, he sat. In deep meditation, he sat. Suddenly his zazen was interrupted by the harsh and demanding voice of a samurai warrior. "Old man! Teach me about heaven and hell!"

 

At first, as though he had not heard, there was no perceptible response from the monk. But gradually he began to open his eyes, the faintest hint of a smile playing around the corners of his mouth as the samurai stood there, waiting impatiently, growing more and more agitated with each passing second. "You wish to know the secrets of heaven and hell?" replied the monk at last. "You who are so unkempt. You whose hands and feet are covered with dirt. You whose hair is uncombed, whose breath is foul, whose sword is all rusty and neglected. You who are ugly and whose mother dresses you funny. You would ask me of heaven and hell?"

 

The samurai uttered a vile curse. He drew his sword and raised it high above his head. His face turned to crimson and the veins on his neck stood out in bold relief as he prepared to sever the monk's head from its shoulders.

 

"That is hell," said the old monk gently, just as the sword began its descent.

 

In that fraction of a second, the samurai was overcome with amazement, awe, compassion and love for this gentle being who had dared to risk his very life to give him such a teaching. He stopped his sword in mid-flight and his eyes filled with grateful tears.

 

"And that," said the monk, "is heaven."

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Good morning and Happy New Year Oz, and to the rest of us shortly!

 

Lots of talk on the board about going long for a rally. Truly one of the worst ideas I have seen in a long time. The down phase is not over yet, and the up phase to follow will not amount to a hill of beans. The next six months will be a downhill runaway freight train. Read about this forecast in your Anals of Stock Proctology.

 

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Gosh, the US dolor fell firmly below 102. I had 99-101 as a target (Fibo retracement level; bottom of downsloping channel since the top, etc.) - but didn't expect it to be reached this year!

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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If you're going to pick your bottom, please, at least don't do it in public.

 

Leave that to your stock proctologist. :D

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Lots of talk on the board about going long for a rally. Truly one of the worst ideas I have seen in a long time.

doc, sometimes i wish you'd quit mincing words, and just say what you think. :P

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Stoolwethers. No 'bout a doubt it. A swup is headed our way. But will it be tradeable? Only if you're a quick draw gunslinger. At this stage of a primary bear market, with longer cycles turning down, the upslope of 10-13 week cycle up phase will be suppressed.

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Folks, Pile mentioned something yesterday - that none of his indicators was suggesting a bounce. So, I spent a few hours looking at charts with extreme prejudice, trying to find at least one (any!) positive sign.

 

Well, guess how many I found?

 

NONE. Yep, that's right.

 

OK, let me present you at least the "not very negative" ones:

 

1) We're Dover Sole. Unfortunately, besides the usual "there is no such thing as Dover Sole in a bear market", the overbought/Dover Sole indicators are still pointing down, not indicating any kind of reversal whatsoever.

 

2) Some flimsy trendlines suggest that we might find weak support a bit below where we currently are. COMPX 1320; things like that.

 

Well, that's it. Besides a whole bunch of intermediate-term indicators that basically say the same thing ("we're going down, waaay down, and aren't even mid-way before reaching the next major low"), there is one which even says that we're at a major intermediate-term top. Look at the 14-day ATR of the SPX and what happens when it falls below 15:

 

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$spx,uu[l,a]dacaynay[df][pf][ilr14].gif

 

I know that all this somewhat disagrees with Doc's warning of an approaching 10-13 week low - but that's what my indicators are telling me; they see no meaningful low in sight any time soon.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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no thoughts of going long here unless we have 3 or 4 monster down days in a row without a filled gap.market is on thin ice here,but they could be saving some of their cash for a pop the first few days of the year.

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Arch Crawford:

 

Indicated on Tom O'Brien's show that Jan. 10 - 16 contain multiple fib turn dates. If the market continues to go down, then a major bounce will happen then.

 

If the market trends up into that date, then that time period will be the "last chance saloon" before a horrible selloff...

 

I'm expecting good consumer confidence numbers and a tradeable bounce for the next 10 days.

 

Vesselin:

 

Stochastics and Money Flow Index is at rock bottom and turning up on 70% of the stocks I surveyed last night.

 

Shorts should stay short, but watch out for a hysteria jam....

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USD getting croaked but gold down in USD? That's intervention, folks.

Japan, perhaps? They like to do such tricks in such markets (thin, around holidays). Can you get a chart of USD/JPY?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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