bubbadropping Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Windy, your donging the retail sector is good contrarian move. On Saturday's PBS they had a big mention of how ominous WMT down revenues were. I thought to myself this must mean the entire sector should rebound shortly. Now is the time. Thanks for the confirmation. best, b.d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Dollar 2002 The dollar has had a nearly 5% drop off its last high. The last time this happened in June 2002, there was a little hump followed by another 2% drop (to July low), then the rally we are all familiar with. Looking at gold, several important bullish charts, USD, bonds, and the NEW YEAR b.s., it seems to me like we're set for a move up in equities. Still 80% cash, 10% long SPX, 10% short XAU. May exend SPX position tomorrow if the sky doesn't fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Also some idiot anal cyst mentioned they would avoid retail exposure since the shopping turn out was so poor this Christmas. That in itself is good enough for a trading signal, probably why WMT started a bounce today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Typical Crapvision Paraded anal cyst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Budda-these vultures like Landis have been drinking each others bath water for years-they actually believe the bull shit they espouse. Trade Safe! that's what happens after you lie for so long and for so much, you begin to live and believe in the lies yourself. Perfect punishment for these types. Its why its taking so long for the market bubble to unwind. Everyone is in the same boat, Washington not excluded. Love the Rally Monkey and Baby Drop game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Hey, is there any particular reason why everyone doesn't believe in the decline and going dong?! Any concrete factual evidence that the downtrend is not still intact. Beyond the preconceptions that it "should" by now turn up b/c of seasonality or supposed "turn dates"? Everyone was trying to short the hell out of it too soon on the way up during Oct-Nov and now when we finally get the MAJOR CONFIRMED TOP and ensuing decline we give up immediately and go dong? Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The CoinGuy Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 B4, Just got home, read your post on the first page, I'm in complete agreement. My silly old charts(Edwards & McGee man) have been saying a retracement to 923-25 on the $SPX, and 1420-5 on the Comp, this is why it's driving me up the wall with the market going down, AND Pile, pushing straight to the downside. Not to deride Pile, he's one of my favorite guys on CapStool, but I HAVE to stick to discipline. At any rate, I've done so well, if I do miss this move, I will be cheering others on to do well themselves. So I'm wishing all good luck. To think, I caught the top of this move and covered...I think all the stoolies ought to line up and whack me a good one. I'm changing my avatar for Pile, after all were talking about a few measly damn points. This SUCKER IS IN DEEP SHIT. Of course this is only my professional opinion , The CoinGuy, CFP, CPA, PHD etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 anyone recall during the early bull market when timid bulls were always waiting for the dip to buy at the perfect time. The dip finally came, unfortunately it usually came after the market marched another 20-40% higher. Now flip it around. I'll give you 25.8 on the cubes and 89.6 on the spiders - tops ! :grin: Chart & wave patterns are great but if you don't look at other things at your disposal like sentiment, internals, etc. your handicapping yourself for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 mark-- today a high water mark(no pun) and i believe that your image of louie "quatorze-aprez moi le deluge" shnookmeister interviewing the seteed trio of black boxes will go down in history as one of the root master metaphors characterising the LAST PART of an epoch-- I remember william faulkners letter,many years ago,after a terrible plane accident, to the editor of the Esquire,complaining about the obsessive slavish worship to instrumental flying,at the expense of common sense and that a total devotion to such black boxes may result in ..you fill in the blanks--although he exaggerated a little bit,after all without some automated decision making where would we be--but without accompanying common sense which in a age of automation is rapidly diminishing,i'm afraid that time will prove him right-- p.s would some of the stoolies please look at m to m's HOT DOG THREAD and look at my latest post-BEARDRECH-- which i mistakenly put there instead of here--i need your input BEARDRECH===AROUND 11 50 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 31, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Pile: This bear market is like no other. It has taught me a valuable lesson. It will be perpetually jammed to the upside at regular intervals, as long as the Repo Explosion stays alive. Too many lost money staying short last year on my recommendation. I will be playing the bounces this time. I am too tired of fighting Al Green and his Liquidity Machine. Survival of this bear market means going long at least a third of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardStoolGuy Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 I've been short FD for over a year now (silly me) and it trades like the old "flying pig" MU use to. Suggest you look at a 2 yr chart of FD and MU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Mark - any plan to long the semis in the short term? Maybe consider some what Pile suggested 'pop insurance' candidates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 I agree Mark. The lessons it taught me were: 1) diversify picks across different sectors (no more than 1-2 stocks in same sector) 2) don't short glams or big names. If you do then you have to hedge b/c your fear is indeed justified. Institutional favorites like to bounce back up (weeble effect), that's why they are favorites - others see them as absolute goods even though we know they are turds deep down - doesn't matter what we think though. They'll be the last to flat line and will fight all the way down. 3) Identify a low-risk entry point after rally has ocurred (like first week Dec) then short. 4) Once in, don't second guess market, let stops take you out. 5) Don't form inflexible preconceptions about what the market is going to do next or what it should do at a particular point in the future. I am fully aware of the upcoming Fib turn dates, Doc's cycles, seasonality, etc. but no current technical market/stock indicator confirm it is upon us right now so why fight it? Tops like Dec 2 don't come along that often, I'm not blowing it for a supposed rally of minor significance that may or may not arrive. What happened to the Santa Rally? What happened on the Dec 20-23 turn date? The trend is your friend. Don't fight it until there is sufficient evidence that its over or about to turn. And all that "free money" Al is printing is now going into treasuries and dollar propping, no longer equities. There are way more holes to plug than Al has fingers with which to plug them. The financial system is hemmoraghing faster with each passing second. The recent sky-rocketing feed shows that Al & gang are sh#ting the proverbial brick right now. Its not going to work this time :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted December 31, 2002 Report Share Posted December 31, 2002 Budda-these vultures like Landis have been drinking each others bath water for years-they actually believe the bull shit they espouse. Trade Safe! that's what happens after you lie for so long and for so much, you begin to live and believe in the lies yourself. Perfect punishment for these types. Its why its taking so long for the market bubble to unwind. Everyone is in the same boat, Washington not excluded. Love the Rally Monkey and Baby Drop game PILE DID U EVER READ Robert Brownings Mr Sludge ,"The Medium" If u haven't its a must for as a critic has it--It exposes more powerfully......that corruption of the soul by a lying and selfish life which infects the whole world,making of it a twilight region, in which truth and error,right and wrong are inextricably confused ,and nothing said is either sincere or insincere--Sludge the greatest of BROWNINGS MAGNIFICENT CAUSUISTS(stock borkers)""" is drawn in a way that will not please people who enjoy stock monodimensional villains--although he hated the figure,Holmes,upon whom the poem was modeled,Holmes, an American spiritualist who fascinated and seduced his wife ELIZABETH into believing his bulllshit,Browning,the artist allows Sledge a ,universal character,like fallstaff,to speak for himself--and after reading the poem you will see the mixture of bullshit and sincerity on crapvision with a new set of eyes--this and a reading of Mann's Mario and the Magician will prepare you for a world of true believers(Eric Hoffer) who unknowingly become victims of those who know how to pluck the strings of the sheeples hearts,villians who are the most dangerous of villians because the fountainhead of foolishness from which they slake their thirst for fame and riches is a congenital attribute of mankind and which is ultimately incorrigible.................... beardrech :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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