Derivatives Cyclone

[Farmer]

Brian4 ,what , in your opinion can they possible

 

do when the trap door opens this freaking far.

 

It seems to me it will take mighty big ram to get it shut again.

[agent.5]

But some selling here will goose up the tax receipts and force some money into bond. Al is trying to keep DOW above 10K, keep all bad news away from page one of the news, and continue to invent "evidence" of an economic recovery.

[Lock Limit Down]

my 1st reaction to hearing about jpm/one is that they need this major headline to bury crappy earnings reports on the way

I have no doubt the feds fingerprints are all over this deal.

Consolidating their holdings for reasons unknown.

One of them surely has problems. Was JPM not part of the gold short

community?

[Bearbones]

my 1st reaction to hearing about jpm/one is that they need this major headline to bury crappy earnings reports on the way

The progeny of the marriage of two pigs is still a pig.

[Hiding Bear]

In the "yes we have no inflation" department, natural gas prices soared to record highs in the NE US - $47.50 in NYC vs. $6.47 on exchange traded contracts.

 

The record prices are attributed to pipeline delivery problems.

 

Northeast Gas Association Requests Voluntary Natural Gas Conservation Through Friday

[crooked_analyst]

As if they didn't know the INTC results....the slamming of gold forced "safe" money into the bonds. Al G. NEEDS the inflow into the bonds....AL G. can and will slam gold to keep "safe" money away from the alternatives.

 

The scary thing is that maybe things ARE that bad that a 4% yield is attractive.

[Goldmember]

.....SILLY BULLIES!

 

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

 

 

.....I couldn't resist.

[MrHanky]

how the heck can tasr go from $3.65 to $115.75 in one freakin year?

 

 

unbelievable

[EddieBear]

I need a widows and orphans investment, something with safety. Where do the conservator trustees put widows and orphans money these days?

I asked my financial advisor (the guy who does my taxes) where to park some money I would need in a year to buy a new house. Something very conservative, after he talked me out of paying off our current mortgage. He put us into a short term tax free bond fund (CTFLX).

[Calculus]

how the heck can tasr go from $3.65 to $115.75 in one freakin year?

Only in America

 

[Farmer]

Thanks Goldie exactly.

[MrHanky]

Only in America

 

I would love to buy some puts on that pile o crap.the problem is there are no options trading for tasr(none that i can find)

[summoner]

woooowzaaa .....pms on sale today if your an investor, not for short term traders

 

most of the miners and the xau have beautiful cup and handles forming on the monthly charts ...long term uptrend line still holding.....should begin to see some consolidation before the next upleg

 

This market aint for children

 

Window blinds must have been closed on wall street late this afternoon....eh

 

TRADE SAFE

[Guest]

Here's the closing bond mkt comment-I'm as confused at the rest of you--this may give some insight-Ed Hyman 2% 10 yr....Lord have mercy!

 

Treasury Market Commentary 1515 CT

(MktNews) - U.S. Treasuries notched another higher close Wednesday

amid grave concerns about another wave of mortgage convexity and yields on the

10-year slid below 4.00%.

In a session earmarked by two-way flows eventually overshadowed by short

covering, most longer coupon Treasuries marked their seventh consecutive

session of gains. On a closing basis, the 30-year was the outperformer, lower

in yield by 5.6 basis points to 4.884%. However, yields on the 2-year and

3-year note rose by 1.6 basis points and 1.3 basis points, respectively to

1.619% and 2.045%, accordingly.

The key was the intermediate 10-year note, which saw yields fall 4.4

basis points to 3.986%, below the critical 4.000% threshold.

As a result, the 2-year/5-year curve flattened 3.3 basis points to +133.8

vs. +137.1 basis points on the close Tuesday. The 2-year/10-year curve

flattened 6.0 basis points to +236.7 compared to +242.7 late Tuesday. The

2-year/30-year portion flattened 7.2 basis points to +326.5 vs. +333.7 basis

points Tuesday afternoon.

Aside from short covering, the session included patches of convexity

buying, sources said. Treasury futures saw evidence of such action as the

yield on the 10-year note fell below 4.000%, sources said. At that time, a

French firm scooped up 7,000 Mar 10-year contracts, which was believed to be

mortgage related.

One floor broker said, "there are not many guys left that want to buy

that much size at current levels, so it is either a foreign central bank or

mortgage related."

There was much debate Wednesday surrounding what yield would be the

trigger point for convexity buying. Many market veterans opined that it was

between 3.900% and 3.750% on the 10-year note.

But, Walt Schmidt, a manager of the Mortgage Strategy group at FTN, said

in a research note that 3.750% would put $379 billion in Agency issues with a

6.00% coupon in-the-money for refinancing "with the massive 5.50% coupon

(about $660B) just around the corner."

He added that currently, the 6.00% coupons have about 80 basis points of

incentive and he assumes it takes 100 basis points of incentive to make a

coupon fully refinanceable. Before the recent rally, the market had been

trading in a 50 basis points range for many months and most accounts were

positioned for higher rates, he said.

But, now with the 10-year note hovering around 4.000%, there is a threat

that the market may break out of the range, forcing real money and hedge funds

to scramble to buy duration. Schmidt also notes that when players get forced

into the market, it is often easier to lengthen duration with Treasuries or

swaps instead of mortgages, which would exacerbate any rally.

Traders noted since there is a great potential for another mortgage

convexity wave, there were a certain amount of accounts buying in front of

this possible move. But, they pointed out that 10-year swap spreads, were

wider by just 0.25 basis points at the close Wednesday. A large move in that

spread would be indicative of heavy mortgage convexity need, they said.

Meanwhile, the late afternoon release of the Federal Reserve's January

beige book remained upbeat and found "the nation's economy has continued to

improve since the last survey" (Jan. 6 cut-off). In contrast, the prior book

(Nov 17 cut-off) said, "the economy continued to expand in October and early

November."

The most recent beige book said the San Francisco region was strongest,

but other areas gave favorable reports, and retailers and manufacturers report

"generally steady" prices. Holiday sales were positive, manufacturing

increased, and housing remained strong. Commercial real estate remains weak.

The book was prepared by the Kansas City Fed.

Anthony Karydakis, a financial economist at Bank One, said in a research

note, "The tone of the beige book was overall positive, but with somewhat

uneven reports from the various districts."

Predictably enough, manufacturing activity was characterized as improving

in "nearly all districts", with some regions even reporting modest gains in

factory jobs (something which has yet to be seen in the payroll data),

Karydakis said.

Still, "Net, net, there was no major surprise in the information included

in the beige book, although its tone seemed slightly restrained compared to

the reality of a 6+% rate of GDP growth that the economy has turned out in the

last six months," he said.

Earlier, the market focused on data as the core Producer Price Index for

December fell 0.1% and the overall rose 0.3%. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade

balance for November was -$38.0 billion, much better than expected, a factor

that will help GDP. 01/14 (1515)k

[Lock Limit Down]

1793 Feb 47.5 calls on Bank One bought today.

SEC where are you?