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The Managed Economy


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My memory is not as vivid as yours but I do recall that it was the most optimistic year of my life regarding the future of the world. Now a little more than a decade later, even the 70s look good to me :(

For parents with young children like myself.. Its even more chitty. You bring them into this world with best intentions, only to witness the slow damn crumble... :angry: :( :cry:

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My sister and I watched the Berlin wall fall down in a motel 6 in Alexandria , La. the same week that we buried our beloved grandmother..We were her only living relatives and she loved us sooo much and never ever denied us or scolded us our whole life..I remember how the jubilance I watched and felt over the demise of communism tempered some of the sadness I felt over the loss of that sweet women..tears started streaming down my sister's and my face as we watched the wall fall on CNN..

 

You are right, it was so hopeful.

 

Now I'm all cynic..

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Some Dow numbers to ponder.

 

From March 4, 2003 till October 22, 2003 the Dow had 17 days with declines of 100 or more points.

That's 17 down 100 or more point days in 162 trading days.

During that time frame the Dow rose 1761 points or 22.5%.

 

From October 23, 2003 till today, the Dow has NOT ONCE gone down a least 100 points.

In fact the largest loss for the Dow during that period was 86.6 points in the last 53 trading days.

During this time frame the Dow rose 931 points or 9.7%

 

Looking at those number one might conclude a REAL NASTY down day or two lie ahead for the Dow.

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Hello all you wonderful Stoolies :D

 

I cannot find the words to thank all of you for your prayers and concern today so I will send you a cyberhug :grin:

 

Hubbie Scott was in surgery for 7 hrs and is now ok.All went well and doc said if he didn't get that diseased tissue out he would've died soon.

 

For those of you who need focus we live in Chicago.

 

Thank you again and God Bless you all

 

Ouch(Karen)

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The "crumble" has been going on much much longer than that IMHO, it's just that 2 world wars interruppted ( or morphed ) it. mainly because we were the winners, especially wwII

You can probably trace the "crumble" all the way back to the Civil War. That's when the Federal gummint anounced to its citizenry that it no longer lived under a federation and that the business of governing would ultimately be conducted by Washington D.C. and its corporate partners. It was just a matter of time (80 years give or take) before the most dangerous branch of the gummint, the executive, would wrestle power from the branch closest to the people, the legislative. The JFK assassination was likely a message from the ruling elite that along with power go certain "responsibilities".

 

I am probably pushing the political envelope so I will leave it there. :D

 

SJ

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S'em H:

 

"Ride the wave or just chill on the beach."

 

Uh...or both. Actually, it was rather chilly on our beach today...

Great advice, but to ride the wave you must first spot the wave. Silly me, missed it by a mile. According to minyanville.com "in the first two days of this new-year the Japanese government has bought an unprecedented $30 billion of U.S. government treasury securities in order to support the dollar versus the yen". The consensus is that this can not go on.

 

True, it will go on until it can't, but then what? Well, the administration has played its cards well "no problem since $ decline is orderly". And when it can't go on then $ decline simply picks up speed. Under no circumstances will they let the economy collapse. The real looser are the Asian economies who are the bond holders. We, we plan to print our way out of this mess, and they have been saying this loud and clear, I just didn't believe it and that's the wave I missed. Orderly decline until unorderly decline, and then some.

 

$ will hit support at 81 and bounce some, but when it starts down again it will fall rapidly, and we will print madly. That is the corner animal stage - they are just milking this time frame for all it's worth, just as they did with the mortgage and refi bubble before they let the bond market down in June. They will let everyone else down as well so long as it serves the "masses" and ultimately the overall structure of country. It's not the economy - it's the military. Under no circumstances are we (they) to loose control of the strongest force on earth. Ultimately that's what supports anything. So political unrest must be avoided at all cost.

 

How long can that be achieved via the stock market bubble? So long as the Asian economies can print us out it will be so, and that can be a long time. They are not micro managing in my opinion. They will step in if they smell fear.

 

So what can one do to be on the right side of this trade? Buy the dips? Too late at this point for my risk tolerance. Hold on to RE? Don't know. But I know this much - printed $ must be funneled into the same economy for it to work. So stashing $ in PM would be considered dangerous and hence we see the plethora of laws monitoring that activity. Any other bubble would indirectly monazite debt and will calm down the jitters among the natives.

 

As we push more & more green in various bubbles form on the surface. The bears maintain that some will pop - but it seems infinitely expandable. Where will the next bubble be? Commercial RE? it's cheap in Silicon Valley now. Farm land? cheap if you think tomatoes will be selling at a premium. SM? Perhaps. Dow way over the 200 week average, S&P just broke above, and Naz has a lot of room to reach there. In time salaries will follow, as I see jobs coming to the valley. Companies are hiring and the good times seem to be just around the corner for everyone, cept the non-believers.

 

Where will the money go next?

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