Hypertiger Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Ok If an economics student says professor what is up with this chart the student is instructed to show up after class... Then is gassed, drugged and forced to watch an Imax screen of this chart and an announcer says "Is this Normalcy?" any answer that is not yes sends a 15,000 volt shock through his/her body...once that is over he/she is then conditioned to ask for a log chart whenever pushed for more information...If one is produced he/she then tries frantically to kill him or her self... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Plunger - one thing to consider might be that SNS and MCD will be payinga lot less for beef in the coming weeks due to all the beef being returned to the US. That might bouy the stock. I covered my TSN short and don't intend to reshort. Depends: I know you're right with respect to costs...so it's a race between declining demand, inability to raise menu prices and declining beef prices. I noticed your TSN short, but since they have chicken and other revenue streams, they're not as tied to a ground beef scare are this burger joint. I remain very watchful and cautious, but if Mad Cow makes a burger fast food chain worth more...I'm in the wrong line of work. Part of their usiness growth path depends on opening new locations via franchisees. Would you be investing in a Steak & Shake in this environment? I wouldn't. I don't believe we've heard the last bad news on this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 There's a curious inverse relationship between DJIA calendar year returns of the past four years, compared to those of a Fibonacci 13 years earlier: 1987: +2.2% / 2000: -6.2% 1988: +11.8% / 2001: -7.1% 1989: +27.0% / 2002: -16.8% 1990: -4.3% / 2003: +23.8% 1991: +15.9% / 2004: ????? If the inverse relationship holds for a fifth year, then 2004 would be a down year to maintain the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 someone posted a china oil play a while back - anyone remember the symbol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 POOR DOUG NOLAND--JUST read his latest What a wild, all-encompassing boom he, again, catalogues...then, at the end of the article, like a latter-day Cotton Mather, shaking his fist at the heavens...he pathetically says a bad end lies in wait...[i hope he's right...and soon]. here's a teaser: January 2 - Dow Jones (Tom Sullivan and Christine Richard): ?Low interest rates and a recovering economy fueled a record $4.938 (up 25% y/y) trillion in global private sector bond sales for 2003. The final data, released Wednesday by Thomson Financial Securities Data, underscore just how big the bond business has become. The numbers include issuance of corporate debt, federal agency debt, taxable municipal bonds, debt backed by mortgages and debt backed by assets such as credit card receivables and home equity loans. By comparison, issuance in 2002 totaled $3.938 trillion, according to Thomson. In 1990, global private sector debt issuance stood at just over $500 billion, or about one-tenth of this year?s level? For 2003, however, debt issuance climbed in almost all categories and there were records in many. Nearly 60% of the total debt sold in 2003 was issued by companies located in the Americas, with the vast majority of that issuance by U.S. corporations.? http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 POOR DOUG NOLAND--JUST read his latest What a wild, all-encompassing boom he, again, catalogues...then, at the end of the article, like a latter-day Cotton Mather, shaking his fist at the heavens...he pathetically says a bad end lies in wait...[i hope he's right...and soon]. here's a teaser: January 2 - Dow Jones (Tom Sullivan and Christine Richard): ?Low interest rates and a recovering economy fueled a record $4.938 (up 25% y/y) trillion in global private sector bond sales for 2003. The final data, released Wednesday by Thomson Financial Securities Data, underscore just how big the bond business has become. The numbers include issuance of corporate debt, federal agency debt, taxable municipal bonds, debt backed by mortgages and debt backed by assets such as credit card receivables and home equity loans. By comparison, issuance in 2002 totaled $3.938 trillion, according to Thomson. In 1990, global private sector debt issuance stood at just over $500 billion, or about one-tenth of this year?s level? For 2003, however, debt issuance climbed in almost all categories and there were records in many. Nearly 60% of the total debt sold in 2003 was issued by companies located in the Americas, with the vast majority of that issuance by U.S. corporations.? http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp i fear poor doug will be in an asylum when it all comes to pass. there have been times in the past year when i really felt for the guy - at other times it felt like he was just repeating the same stuff over and over.... i can see him at his keyboard mumbling to himself. OT/ i am amazed at the # of people who cannot pay for past due rentals at the video store - i know others have seen the same thing. i shudder when the clerk asks them if they would like to pay 1/2 of the overdue amount, so that they can rent a new video or two... in a way, its almost symbolic of the credit-driven frankenstein US economy... invariably the plastic comes out when the clerk asks for the past due amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Bo$$ Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 someone posted a china oil play a while back - anyone remember the symbol? Pee, I think it was SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Ok If an economics student says professor what is up with this chart the student is instructed to show up after class... Then is gassed, drugged and forced to watch an Imax screen of this chart and an announcer says "Is this Normalcy?" any answer that is not yes sends a 15,000 volt shock through his/her body...once that is over he/she is then conditioned to ask for a log chart whenever pushed for more information...If one is produced he/she then tries frantically to kill him or her self... Good stuff. If I remember my history correctly, didn't something momentus happen right about that inflection point? You know, right about there at 1971? What was that? Oh yeah, now I remember. That's when the USA reneged on it's obligations and cast the world adrift in a sea of paper. It's important to remember that the world is now 33 years into it's first ever global fiat experiment. There are no historical learnings that are fully relevant. You are living under one of the greatest experiments of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdon Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Abby "Planet of the Apes" Cohen on Rukeyser tonight, offering up her glowing forecast for 2004 - 2005. Does she look like a truth teller to you??? And I thought Michael Jackson had a skin/gender problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Pee, I think it was SNP. thanks bo$$; i wish i would have grabbed that screamer you posted on goldstool the other day.... good trading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Confirming what Wyndy's been saying re Cal RE: "December 30 ? Associated Press (Jim Wasserman): ?Construction crews wielding saws, hammers and nail guns this year began work on the most new houses in California since 1989 and the most apartments since 1990 ? but it isn?t enough to ease the nation?s worst housing shortage, experts say. California builders Monday reported starting 191,866 homes and apartment since 2003, and predict slightly more next year before rising interest rates force a slowdown in 2005?" Wonder what they mean by "shortage". The number of pavailable hyscial units the number of affordable units? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 The Liquidity and Speculation Boom has made fools of everyone, including the bulls. The bulls who bought MSFT, DELL, PFE, MRK, and other so called "safe stocks" are pulling their hair out because they didn't buy Avaya (AV), up 650% from the lows. I bet that BobBrinker is even grinding his teeth why he didn't pile his newsletter readers into the leveraged ProFunds tracking the Semi's or the Russell. What is the most amazing is reading Fleck or Noland's columns from 1999, warning of "gross mortgage excess". Little did they know that the bond and mortgage markets would expand another 400%. Will be interesting to see what Al Green says tomorrow, and Ben Bernanke on Sunday. Fed Bullhorning 24/7 starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Who am I? What the hell am I doing? Running a public service free message board site, I guess. It's obvious that about four people pay any attention at all to my research. The other 4000 could care less. Doc, everybody knows the only reason market anal cysts were invented, was to make weather forecasters look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 And I thought Michael Jackson had a skin/gender problem? Abby has a skin/species problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted January 3, 2004 Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 This chart may be showing signs of a top...or not. Plunger - No I wont invest in MCD, SNS, or for that matter any stock. But I may take the trade. Just wait for that second mad cow to show up. Sooner or later it will. I liked today. Got WMT good and BBY. Covered KBH short from several days ago and am looking for the next squeeze in homebuilders to short again. They seemed to bottom out this afternoon. Added shorts C and YELL. Donged NFI as a hedge since it seems to be holding it's 25 ma. tight stops all around. Still waiting to get back in metals. 4 dongs / 8 shorts / 2 metals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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