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2003 Scoreboard


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One day left in the year of 2003.

 

Fumble Managers are pushing the tape for the year end statement print so they can jack up the stock market and collect their bonuses. The first bonuses in 3 years.

 

However, there is another Scoreboard which turned out to be disasterous.

 

That's the Scoreboard for the Grand Experiment undertaken by Al Green. The attempt to push the Global Economy into prosperity with massive reliquifaction and stimulus.

 

Nowhere else in history have we witnessed Central Banks satisfy the role of Buyer of Last Resort. Buy high and sell lower. Or sell low and buy higher.

 

So far, the Score of this Experiment has been abysmal. The Score is the current price of the U.S. Dollar, which is now being turned into a Banana Currency.

 

According to Peter Eavis:

 

Led by the Federal Reserve, the world's central banks have spent five years pursuing some of the most reckless monetary policies ever seen in the developed world. To quote Stephen Roach, "Central banks have made the riskiest bets in modern history -- policy rates of 'zero' in Japan, 1% in America and 2% in Europe. At the same time, fiscal authorities have upped the ante as never before, with government budget deficits of 7% in Japan, 4% in America and 3% in Europe. And the authorities have colluded in currency management in a period of unprecedented external imbalances."

 

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/detox/10134346.html

 

According to Bloomberg:

 

"The Bank of Japan sold 2.25 trillion yen ($21 billion) from Nov. 27 through Dec. 26. The figure boosts yen sales for 2003 to a record 20.1 trillion yen. The MOF in Tokyo, which released the figures on its Web site, directs the central bank to buy or sell its currency. "The MOF appears to be ready to spend as much money as it wants to slow down the pace of the yen's gain,'' said Noriyoshi Tsunoda, assistant manager of the treasury department at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Taipei.

 

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...p_cU&refer=asia

 

Now that the global economy has essentially morphed into a Giant HedgeFund, with paper speculations contributing to the bulk of current GDP, we'll see how The Scoreboard looks in 2004.

 

After all, the Scoreboard for Al Green's Reliquifaction Scheme might as well be a price quote for Doug Noland's Dynamically Hedged Economy.

 

So far, we have had the worst year ever.

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Art Cashin was asked today about the condition of the markets going in to 2004.

 

He said the feelings were hopeful of a continued uptrend but that there were certain things weighing on the markets. Some of those things were:

 

1. Tremendous amount of stimulus through Refis, tax cuts, tax credits, etc. that have caused consumers to spend and has fueled economic growth. He was unsure this growth could continue.

 

2. Consumers have taken on alot of debt and there is consternation in the markets that the consumer can't continue to do this but they are hopeful the debt increases can continue.

 

3. Consternation over rising interest rates. He specifically brought up the fact that foreign countries have been buying 10 years treasuries and if this stops, interest rates will rise even if the Fed doesn't want them to.

 

I always listen to Art Cashin as he is one of the few people that seems somewhat honest on Bubblevision.

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"Led by the Federal Reserve, the world's central banks have spent five years pursuing some of the most reckless monetary policies ever seen in the developed world. To quote Stephen Roach, "Central banks have made the riskiest bets in modern history -- policy rates of 'zero' in Japan, 1% in America and 2% in Europe. At the same time, fiscal authorities have upped the ante as never before, with government budget deficits of 7% in Japan, 4% in America and 3% in Europe. And the authorities have colluded in currency management in a period of unprecedented external imbalances."

 

Or the system implodes and the writer of this quote is in a soup line...or worse.

 

Link to more useless information...

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Joe Six and his friends jumping into this market trying to get even are nervous as hell and scared sh*tless. They will panic and stampede on any weakness or loss of confidence. That is why the matrix and da boyz can't allow any declines. Media shills must keep cheerleading 24/7 to keep all the sheepsters heading for the cliff. Too many bad memories of 2000.

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re: the Captain Hook article on gold-eagle. South Africa is a much different place now than when DROOY was $50 bonars per share back in the early 80's. I'm no expert on the SA political situation, but I get the feeling that DROOY would be nationalized long before DROOY stock trades at 50$ again. The SA govt would surely take those ounces in the ground for themselves, right? I'm in DROOY heavy for a trade - looking for a couple dimes or something. Maybe I'll hold just a few shares long term and forget about em, just in case. I think looking for a return of the 1980-vintage "Roodeport Rocket" is wishful thinking at best.

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Just to follow up on the last two pages of IDS. First, M2M is a true open forum with the exception that political discussion should be posted on Political Stool with a link here if you want. Everything else is pretty much open season here.

 

IDS, again, I want to try to limit to short term trading discussion. If someone wants to lead a more generalized open discussion thread during the day, I think that would be great. PM me, please.

 

In IDS, if you have a more general comment that can be stated in two sentences or less, it's ok to post, but if it's a long post, or something that invites discussion, please open a thread on LOB and link back to it from IDS.

 

As for the hate mail, the same guy has been bitching for a year now, because he's so msart and I'm so dumb. I don't understand why he can't just declare victory and walk away, but mental illness is not my area of expertise.

 

I really would like to see Bullstool built up in a kindhearted way. Some of you have posted your ideas over there, and you have been great! Others have posted only venomous diatribes aganst me and other stoolies. That I have put a stop to.

 

We have people to attack. They're the ones on TV and in the newspapers lying all the time. I guess we should love the sinner and hate the sin, but it's a fine line. :) The bottom line is that I will not allow bullstool.com to be just a launchpad for rage and hatred. Those who are chronic troublemakers keep me busy, but I am detemined not to let them ruin the experience of the people of goodwill who are the vast majority of people visiting this site and Bullstool.com.

 

If you feel more comfortable in a bull suit please feel free to use Bullstool as a home. You are also welcome here, if you behave civilly. Several of you do that now, and there is no problem.

 

Meanwhile, I'm going to try and make Bullstool.com a kinder gentler place. If it fails to catch on, so be it.

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