Goldmember Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 Brisbane, there is a correction due, but I don't know how much, Nobody does. ....and neither do they. All bets are off, after the Sadamm thing, in my book. It seems we've been robbed of a perfectly good 6-month and 1-year cycle synchronous down-phase somewhere along the line. Nov. 20th, that wild-ass down day out of the blue, may well have been the last powering down forces of the 6 month and 1-year cycles, and that was all the market gave us. The good news is I nailed that one for a power slide intraday. At least I can feel good about that. Or have we? I still have red crap in an indicator panel rolling over at 100%, on the daily charts, though there are other underlying forces still powering up that may make the rollover of the red stuff a tame affair indeed. See the charts in my LOB thread for an idea of the longer duration forces at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriot Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 RSI Just read a 12/19 article by Andy Stout of Schaeffer's research. He gave statisitics on the Dow 10 week RSI average. He states that when the Dow reaches a RSI of 75 or higher the Maret has had at least a temporary pullback or a market reversal. Claims has happened 12 times since 98. Ave decline has been 9%. The biggest drop was 25 % from May 25/01 to Sept 21,01. the RSI as of fri was 74.67%. This high water mark occured 3 x's in 98/2x's in 99/ 2x's in 00/ 1x in 01 /1 x's 02/ and if it hits (very close) this will be the 4th time in 03. Maybe Doc or some of you tech guys have a opinion on this. Best Day patriot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 Mousey Dung,? John Hussman mentiones your beloved Xilinx as one of the most overvalued stocks.? ? Bait & Tackle Thank AG, you know I have no problem with going long, and have when I thought it was profitable, but it's so depressing to think you're entering a short at such a fat point for a profit and then see it rise almost 10% more. The P/E both trailing and forward are outrageous and yet it keeps going. If there isn't a break soon, I could be looking at the next support being built. If you give me a $3 drop I'll be your friend. . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 gold's up a buck....did they raise the alert level another notch ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 I'm with Doc on this one. Alert levels mean squat, news means squat, other than a day or two reaction and return to action already underway. Look at 1962-66 as an example. The world was awash in apocalyptic chaos, they even killed Kennedy..... and the market annihilated the bears anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriot Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 Futures are worsening. As of 11:30 pm ECT. NSDQ100 -750// NASDAQ Mar 04 -800 Anybody with a more recent update? Best Day patriot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 tanks for the link to that Hussman report. it was interesting reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 HONG KONG, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Chinese gold firm Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Co Ltd priced its IPO at the top end of its range on Monday and said its public offer was 744 times subscribed, making it the most popular listing here since 1997 got gold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 He's one of the best there is, he always seems to be on the right side of the market. His fund never goes net short, and he's from 0% to 100% net invested long. So currently he's a little less than 50% net long, but with some out of the money puts just in case he has to go to fully hedged (0% long). I realize you can read, but in case you haven't read his past commentaries maybe what he wrote didn't sink in the 1st time. yah, i struggle through it letter by letter... tanks AG....I almost quoted some snippets here too....for those who might've missed the link. You posted a good summary. He's a long-fund guy, but he sure sounds like he's watching things like a hawk right now, eh? i.e....I got the feeling that he thinks things are on the verge of rolling over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 here is a question...just say you are expecting a pullback from say 1089 on the S&P to around 1078 or thereabouts,does the futures action count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 Futures are worsening. As of 11:30 pm ECT. NSDQ100 -750// NASDAQ Mar 04 -800 Anybody with a more recent update? Best Day patriot Put this on your favorites Patriot. http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriot Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 Mousey Dung, Thanks but i do have cme on favorite. But i guess the question is is (one of those double things) the time reference ECT? Ah lets see, perhaps patriot the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is in a different time zone. No kidding. Any opinion on the Schaeffer comments re: 10 wk rsi when it bangs 75? Best Day patriot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alborz Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 HONG KONG, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Chinese gold firm Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Co Ltd priced its IPO at the top end of its range on Monday and said its public offer was 744 times subscribed, making it the most popular listing here since 1997 got gold ? This is related to a question I have that confuses me to no end. Obviously if yuan is revaluated then the price of gold will drop in yuan - right? So if you live in China you shouldn't buy gold - yet. Case in point is what happened to gold in Europe the past year. But what about mining shares? Would it not mimic the Sout African experience? So again it should not be a good buy in general (I don't know about the specifics of this company). Also, I think the Shanghai SM being at 52 week lows is also telegraphing something. Is it that yuan is will be revaluated shortly and would that not cause all china equities to get a whacking? Would it not be the opposite of S&P/US$ relationship? Whatever -- I don't think there is any safe store of capital anymore anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 "Whatever -- I don't think there is any safe store of capital anymore anywhere." Boy, that sure sounds right Patriot: if any of the 3 events of 2003 were between March and now, then perhaps it has relevance; but if they were prior to March, then I think it's iffy. Market is being manipulated differently post-march...not sure any pre-March patterns work any more... just my opinion of course. g'night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 22, 2003 Report Share Posted December 22, 2003 In fairness to McKillop, say the price of oil doubles tomorrow. Will oil use be cut in half? I doubt it - it will go down some, but not half. So what you have then is an increase, and probably a big one, in money velocity in the global economy due simply to the fact that the price of oil has risen. While this may be bad for the US economy proper, it is certainly bullish for everyone in the energy supply chain, which is enormous, and all of the trickle-downs from there. And that is a lot of economic activity, just that much of it is outside the US due to the fact that we don't pump much oil here anymore. A healthy (growing) global economy needs increasing money velocity, not necessarily a growing money supply. In other words, money needs to change hands faster, more transactions made, goods bought, services rendered, before those individual dollars dive back into the banking system from whence they were born in the form of P&I payments. Also, the US right now needs its trade partners to grow faster than itself, in order to alleve the current account balance. Maybe a high oil price ain't all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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