The Hot Dog Stand

[Hypertiger]

China is letting it's citizens buy gold for one reason... To collapse the U.S. economic system, plain and simple...

 

Any other reason is wishful thinking or denial...

 

As for 2003... It will make the past 2 years look like a joke and 2004 will make 2003 look like a joke...

 

Once Debt inflation reaches the maximum potential for exponential (Growth)...

 

Debt deflation starts (You/we are here) and wont stop again until a ) Debt inflation is equal to or more than debt deflation or b ) "Bank"ruptcy of the entire interconnected system. "World reserve currency" hint hint the whole world economy...

 

Every "economic downturn", "soft spot", or ?recession? in the past was stopped or overcome by a combination of savings reduction, Government expansion (More Debt), and marketing to induce the consumer to get deeper in debt? To keep the ?economy growing?, And other minor forms of stimulus?

 

 

Savings reduction is finished?

 

 

And consumer debt inflation is maxed out (Anything past 100% is negative)?

 

All that is left is for the US Government to expand, but it can not ever hope to make up for the ?lost ground? it?s too late? (Or turn into a fascist dictatorship and provide economic growth with conquest after conquest)

 

The only thing that will stop this is ?Bank?ruptcy/reorganization of the global economic system. Which will not happen until the ?Bitter end?

 

 

The bitter end will be when everyone is wiped out and sucked dry and bulldozed into mass graves? We are going down for the count this time unfortunately. All the thinking out there is based on infinite inflation of debt, which is over? That thinking will destroy anyone that is standing too close when the final deflationary shockwaves hit, followed by the low echoing rumble which will last decades.

 

The market? My prediction of the make it to Christmas milking operation for the most part have held up, barely?

 

Now it?s the ?finish positive next year to prove Hypertiger wrong? assault. Not going to happen unless a ?miracle? occurs. Other than falling asleep and not waking up, the chances of a miracle showing up are 0%...

[wndysrf]

Wrecked Him:

 

You are correct. So far the TRIN and ARMS have been the most accurate warning of a bounce.

 

Where is Buddhadropping? He's the Chief Forensic anal cyst on frontrunning the Hoods and Bosses' screamer runs. He's got the TRIN game down cold.

 

I do not trust these low volume declines. They burned me every time this year.

 

Ready to load up some longs on some screamers like KLAC, MCHP, MXIM, etc. for the hysteria run into the Jan. 10 turn date.

 

Look for at least a 35% - 50% increase in hourly volume over today's levels, and if the volume holds during the first 2 hours and we get a TRIN at .60 or less, then you know the squeeze is on....

[GTNWORSE]

Piles I was going to start laddering into Bearx as we rallyed into Jan. Guess next week will be the opportunity to begin. What do you guys think of a 30% position in RYVYX for the next couple of weeks?

[PileDriver]

a sustained significant rally is highly unlikely here. We drift lower, and lower. Its called a bear market.

 

GTN, at this point might as well wait until early Jan and see what develops.

 

BEARX you can do practically at anytime but RYVNX is highly leveraged so its best to wait for one of those dopey bear rally pops and then buy some RYVNX. That's a much tricker fund to play.

[mjkst27]

this is the first year I have owned a mutual fund in a taxable account (I own some BEARX shares). Can someone confirm today's distribution and how it affects taxes? If I gather correctly, some of today's distribution is income, and some is cap gains. The NAV of BEARX declines tonight by the amount of the total distribution. I am guessing BEARX, after today's up day, will be around 7.40 after the distribution. So as an exercise let's say I had bought BEARX back in October, at the highs, 8.40 or so. I would then have a $1.00 NAV capital loss on BEARX that I could take if I sold the fund by the end of the calendar year. I would then net this cap loss against the distribution's cap gain, and have my actual net cap gain or loss (it would be a substantial loss in this example) on BEARX for the 2002 tax year. The income portion of the distribution is of course taxed as normal income.

 

Anyone see any big holes in that thought process? Maybe I should get a pro tax man involved. NOT!

 

Tanks!

[brian4]

JCRSOFT-If you own 30 ounces of gold and it goes up $20.- your gain is $600.-. If the same dollars are used to purchase GG or ASA or NEM or AEM and the price goes up $20.- you make thousands of dollars as the miners reserves all go up $20.- an ounce-for leverage you can't beat owning gold shares. Now there has been a lot of chatter tonite about North Korea and Dog Boy has it rite-they aren't Iraq they are a mean bunch of mothers with the 2nd largest standing army in the world-about 3 months ago those of us who have been to korea and saw the possibility of this coming posted about it. The 2 capitals are the same distance apart as NYC & Atlantic city. In the Korean war the allies were pushed into the sea at Inchon and Gen Mc Arthur had to say for the 2nd time "I shall return" after years of battle and horrific losses the allies pushed the Koreans and the Chinese back to the Yalu river and McArthur wired Truman and said I can be in Peking in a month-Truman said no! fired McArthur and now we are where we are-Patton said I can be in Berlin in a week he to was fired, Scharwzkoff said I can take Baghdad in a month Daddy Bush said NO-if warriors were allowed to do what they do best without political interference-what a wunnerful world it would be! The only thing dumber than a wall street anal cyst is the polticians who lead us to repeat history AGAIN AND AGAIN. I would suggest POG is taking off in regard to the Korean threat more so than Iraq or the economy-Trade Safe!

[PileDriver]

MJ, sounds like a valid tax strategy. Yes, it closed at 7.40.

 

Hyper, we're so screwed it isn't funny. The once virtuous cycle of debt is slowing morphing into an ugly vicious cycle (death spiral).

[Guest]

Signalwatch.com lean toward a bounce for early next week:

 

[DOW] "We note a curved trend line formed above the highs of today's move in the 15 Minute Chart. This pattern implies an upside break is imminent, and we expect a bounce in the vicinity of 8,250 on Monday or Tuesday.

 

The NASDAQ and OEX continued down with the Dow, forming more picture-perfect plays on the indexes. There, too, we are at support and will be watching to see what happens in Monday's market at these levels."

 

Nimble players like B4 (who is already set up) can make $ on a short term bounce but I don't see a longer term rally scenario setting up at this stage.

[Guest AssMaster]

POG is not rallying on any particular thing. Iraq, NK, Al-Queda are all symptoms. There is a bear market in stability and a bull market in chaos.

 

Once you pound down one of these irritating "nails", two more will pop up. The opportunistic mice are waiting for the cat to be preoccupied with bigger fish so they can make the grab their longed for cheese. Contingency plans have been made already.

 

We take Iraq, Iraq lobs a missile at Israel, Israel invades Jordan...takes eastern Iraq, Al-Queda blows up five capital cities at once, China takes Taiwan, Korea invades the South, Chechens blow up something, Shining Path feels left out - blows something up....yada yada yada.

 

Just like the gold stocks...they all sit there for a while, then they start taking off one you one by one until they are all exploding.

 

POG is rallying because it is dawning on everyone that there is no safe haven currency except the Swissie and gold. Chaotic times call for safe havens. This is why the Fed can push down long rates and people still buy Treasuries. Our currency is backed by the biggest military in the world. Fed needs more oil? Invade Iraq. Fed needs more gold? Annex Canada in order to "protect it".

 

And the Swissie is safe because it is backed by gold. If it's good enough for the Swiss, why should we not be buying it?

[Guest alex]

China is letting it's citizens buy gold for one reason... To collapse the U.S. economic system, plain and simple...

 

Couldn't agree more, Hyper, and excellent insights, all. The real impetus behind the gold move may be the growing realization that economic warfare w/ China is inevitable, and will be devastating to the US. US policy toward NKorea is ALWAYS motivated by its need to control the potential threat of China. (Let's not forget that NKorea borders China to the north).

 

B4: re gold vs. gold stocks: if you believe that gold is signalling a long-term disaster, then isn't physical gold the better (safer) bet? Bullion is certainly alot more liquid if you have to pick up and move tomorrow, say, to Canada or China, per Merciless' suggestion.

 

Also, during the Nasdaq run-up, you had significant inflows of foreign capital playing the US markets, contributing to the liquidity. Will the same market liquidity forces be in play here to see skyrocketing prices in gold stocks, even with the Fed printing money? And if you believe that hyperinflation is the real culprit, assuming your exit strategy is not moving to China in case of total meltdown, wouldnt it be better to buy real estate? (*) I suppose when we see Jim Sinclair featured as the guest speaker on Squawkbox, it will be time to sell.

 

(*) Does anyone here know what happened to residential real estate prices during the first stages of the inflationary spiral in Argentina?

[midnite lightning]

What do you call that?

 

Damn, somebody is in trouble. They can?t push this thing very far.

 

Normally on this low volume these guys should be able to launch a nice run. Extremely easy to manipulate.

 

When the volume is this low and the market just sinks, the bullies are in deep sh#t. The market looks very weak. Flying on a bent wing and a prayer!

 

When the big boyz come in, they will sell the hell out of this heap of sh#t!

 

I get the feeling the sheeple will be lining up for their money back at the end of the year.

 

This year was great for the sheeple. If they paid attention at all the false predictions by the so called,? Experts,? they now know to take their money and run and never believe these crooks again. Fall street will pay something fierce for all its lies. Time for the fat lady to sing.

 

I think they should take all their money out and put it into the real estate bubble and help it pop;-)

 

Charts really look like hell. I have 2-green indicators and one of them is the trin. They probably will launch this thing but I will bet it will come down as fast as it goes up.

I have 29-indicators which are red. This doesn?t look good for a new bull run. Too much uphill resistance. I will get antsy around 8150 somewhere around there which is 50% re-trace.

 

Durable goods number pretty much says where the sheeple are heading. Into the woods is a good guess.

 

I hope everybody is getting ready for some serious down swings. The saddamn business is just a few weeks away if not sooner. The war games are in full swing out there. Even saddamn is having some war games of his own. This could only mean one thing. Payback time!

 

Gold will keep on going up along with oil.

 

I wouldn?t worry about n. korea. They are notorious for threats to extort money since they are in such sorry shape. What a bunch of losers.

 

I think al quackda is taking cover. They have had multiple opportunities to do some damage and have failed. They have lost their edge.

 

The way I see it, very short pop and down the tubes she goes. Too many negatives on the horizon to sustain a meaningful rally. The so called,? Experts,? have lost the sheeples confindence and their life savings. What shmucks!

 

Yes, 03 will be the continuation of the inverted ?V? re-discovery! Don?t you just love it?

Paybacks are a bitch!

 

CYA

[Bizarro-Greenspan]

Oooh,good thoughts on Japanese and Chinese buying

physical gold.Got this snippet from Sean Corrigan,

 

"An unnamed 'senior MOF official' told the Asahi Shimbun

that 'the country may be going to the dogs'and that 'unless

the government manages to to engineer a dramatic economic

recovery or impliment drastic tax hikes,it is now impossible

to avert a fiscal crisis'.Looks like a good old dose of hyper-

inflation is well on track,especially if Koizumi inveigles the

BOJ chief to accept a change in directive next spring,as is

widely rumored to be his intention,after his auction of the

office to the highest inflationist bidder."

 

Chinese banks' bad loan exposure was put at 40% of

GDP in the last article I read on this wee problem.

No wonder they're paying the equivilant of 380 FRNs

for an oz. of the real money.

 

Big Yellow sun rise in East?

[Bizarro-Greenspan]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/DG23Ad04.html

 

China and USD hegemony.Henry CK Liu advocates a

reserve currency role for a new Chinese currency.

 

Jorma asked, how close is Mr.Liu to Chinese authorities?

 

Intriguing question,that.

[Guest]

Fascinating article Bizarro, thanks.

[Jorma]

a sustained significant rally is highly unlikely here. We drift lower, and lower. Its called a bear market.

 

GTN, at this point might as well wait until early Jan and see what develops.

 

BEARX you can do practically at anytime but RYVNX is highly leveraged so its best to wait for one of those dopey bear rally pops and then buy some RYVNX. That's a much tricker fund to play.

The leveraged funds from Rydex and Profunds should not be buy and hold. They are trading vehicles, in my opinion. They are expressly engineered to be such. I use ProFunds and Scottrade does not charge me anything for exiting them, as they normally do for funds held less than 90 days.