Guest Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Don Walanchuk just on O-Brien show. He is offering a cigarette to all bears who he says are about to be put against the wall and shot. Big new world order man. Oddly, Walanchuk also says gold it going to 1000 to 2000. O-Brien calls him the premier Elliott Wave man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 THE GREATEST MARKET CRASH EVER! Bur first: The obligatory & looney: B'WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH "The derivative market speculation this year is the greatest ever. With still one month to go, the open- interest in financial derivatives has increased by over 200 million contracts - to 733 million. The last serious liquidation in derivative open-interest was after the 1987 stock market crash. Right before the 1987 crash, derivative open-interest stood at 20 million contracts. By early 1988, half of that open-interest was liquidated. Furthermore, derivative open-interest didn't exceed the 20 million contracts again until June of 1992 - five years after the 1987 crash. "Right now, derivative open-interest is 36 times greater than it was before the 1987 crash. So there really isn't any reasonable comparison between the two speculations. The amount of leverage used in the current bubble market is many times greater than the leverage used during 1987. That's also true when the leverage is adjusted for money- supply growth, income growth, or market capitalization increases. As the bubble bursts, and all of this margin- debt and open-interest is finally liquidated, the selling pressure will overwhelm the marketplace and cause the greatest stock market crash ever." http://www.dailyreckoning.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 I dumped all my gold and silver stocks, except for my 1/3 core position. When that much selling volume comes in off the top, sell first, ask questions later. Wndy, I tried to sound the alarm, to lock in some profits when HUI was at 250+, and NEM was bangin' it's head at $50. You gotta respect those round numbers after looong runs to the up/downside. Just something to stick in your bag of tricks fur the next time. Today Gold made what looked to me to be an important top, possibly as important as the Feb top. As I said earlier, I was looking to get short some time in December at a price above $400. Today was that day. IF Gold can take out today's high with authority, then we may start to see some acceleration upside. I don't see that happening anytime soon, but if it happens..I will probably change my IT outlook on Gold from bearish to bullish. Today's high was a KEY pivot, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flockofsheeples Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Wow, what a day. I hate to say this gang, but despite market leaders (translation: MOMO's) breaking down today, despite big losses in the homebuilders, despite the -900 tick reading, the Bears dropped the ball today. Had a great chance to close near lows, but couldnt do it. And believe me, every bull looking at an SPX daily chart, will be gaming that beauty hammer off of the 20 day MA, and a nice ABC retracement move (A=1035, B=1070, C=1052.50....Intraday low today was 1053.41 about perfect)). Don't mean we dont collapse, just showing you what the other side sees tonight. Beware. SPX target via ABC move is 1087. But then again, were used to this incessant jamming and stick saving by now, right? 1087 close enough for gruff's 1089 target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Silky- enlarged pic Non-sufficient Funds Market's Bill Coming Due Your Anals Fishmarket Wrap is loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Wow, what a day. I hate to say this gang, but despite market leaders (translation: MOMO's) breaking down today, despite big losses in the homebuilders, despite the -900 tick reading, the Bears dropped the ball today. Had a great chance to close near lows, but couldnt do it. And believe me, every bull looking at an SPX daily chart, will be gaming that beauty hammer off of the 20 day MA, and a nice ABC retracement move (A=1035, B=1070, C=1052.50....Intraday low today was 1053.41 about perfect)). Don't mean we dont collapse, just showing you what the other side sees tonight. Beware. SPX target via ABC move is 1087. But then again, were used to this incessant jamming and stick saving by now, right? That candle reflects an indecision point. It can just as easily break down. I covered when SOXie started to hold it's own this PM. If the bounce fails and we close on the low tomorrow, then I believe that the bears are in control fur a while, and acceleration could be swift to the downside. The action in the RUT and NDX is making me lean towards the breakdown scenario. They look to have "rolled" to me. Tomorrow is a big day. Bears really need to close this week out on the lows, rather than the highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 That'll get yer heart rate up, huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 That'll get yer heart rate up, huh. amongst other things. . . :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 That candle reflects an indecision point. It can just as easily break down. . . . The action in the RUT and NDX is making me lean towards the breakdown scenairo. They look to have "rolled" to me. The rally started in the RUT and has begun to end in the RUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 tanks to the stoolie who posted this link earlier.... http://www.marketsummaryandforecast.com/decision_point.htm it really is an interesting read. sober analysis. and best of all...comforting ! aureleus, appreciate your keen observations as always; and your charts. Your comment about respecting the candles with gold itself deserves respect. On that chart tho, just 4 weeks (?) ago, the red candle was immediately followed by a large up-move. Also, back at 382, there was a red candle immediately followed by a HUGE up-move. As you mentioned, it could go either way. But I have tons of faith in shrub. He's gonna step on his weenie Heck, he always does. I.e., factors are aligning in gold's favor; and against US assets of all types, including human. 15 children slaughtered in Afghan is not conducive to goodwill; nor smooth supply of cheap oil. An uptick in pipeline bombings wouldn't surprise me in the least. Oil has been steady to up the past day or two, even as gold was getting slammed today. Doolar also not impressive, despite BOJ. B4 has warned on Taiwan/China, and I think he's got a point. Anyway, I -am- following your caution about PM opts/futures, but also thinking it's 51/49 towards new strength in the PM's vs. more weakness. heck, jrmfl by himself bought enough today to boost the hui 5 points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 How interesting... The Colonel's got the firing squad, and I've got the herd word, but we're both interested in gold at a thousand Then The Doc is posting the...er...ah...treasure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 From what I heard, Mr. Wolanchuk was bullish every step of the way through the entire bear market. He's a one trick pony. Of course, I got the info from Bare, so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 What a service Doc.Enlarged avatars.Like that one! LongOU: Max Headroom--whatever happened to him?Or is it repeating on your side of the pond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Wndy, I tried to sound the alarm, to lock in some profits when HUI was at 250+, and NEM was bangin' it's head at $50. You gotta respect those round numbers after looong runs to the up/downside. Yep, just checked the horrific volume that came in on the gold shares. In a word: Catastrophic. Seriously considering sell all remaining positions on the bounce, and actually shorting these stocks. I haven't seen any sector suffer such extreme technical damage as this one. Its one ugly picture....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Mark, It appears that as of today Tim Ord does not see any reason for alarm. This is from his most recent post at Decision Point: "Support lies near the 105 on the XAU and we came down to this area today. The "Price Momentum Oscillator" on the XAU in the Monthly and weekly charts are still trending up. The daily "PMO" may have turned down today. Gold should reach at least 418 (which is the 1996 high) before attempt of a consolidation of a bigger degree begins. Gold high so far is 412. The Central fund of Canada % premium/discount stands at 9.25% as of yesterday. We have found good entries in the XAU have occurred between 5% to 0%. It does not appear that this is the time to abandon the bullish view on gold and Gold stocks. The consolidation that is currently going on is of minor degree. We expect the XAU to break to new highs and head towards 120 after the current consolidation is complete." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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