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"I'm cheering a Street gang's bust"


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gruff: YOu give the bears hope, love to hear how it is impossible for the mkt to go down. Are you related to irving fisher? Have we reached a permanenet level of prosperity in stock prices? Have all natural economic laws been repealed?

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gruff: YOu give the bears hope, love to hear how it is impossible for the mkt to go down. Are you related to irving fisher? Have we reached a permanenet level of prosperity in stock prices? Have all natural economic laws been repealed?

Easy, Soup... you know what he means.

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While I think 960 ( in a few weeks) is the most likley outcome, in now way do I think it has to happen. Very frustrating to see so many perma bulls tell us how the mkt has to go up, it just has to. The mkt can and will do whatever it so pleases.

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Crapax

 

Sorry I don't know what the usual open interest in gold is, but I know that right now it's high with only a few days left.

 

118,000 x 100 ounces = 11,800,000 ounces x $390 = $4.6billion

 

Now there's not that sort of 'free' gold around to deliver all of it, but anyway 118,000 won't be the open interest come Friday, or Wed which I think is the final day (Comex closed Thurs/Fri).

 

So let's assume that the OI goes down by 75%, that's still over $1billion of cash gold that needs to be delivered, and that's where the panic could start because normally it's the shorts who call the longs bluff because the shorts can stay short in all of Dec (nobody can deliver to them so to speak). The longs however HAVE to be ready to accept delivery on 1 Dec, and have to have the full nominal amount in cash deposited with their brokers.

 

The rumour that has been circulating over the last few months is this: If you want to buy say $1 billion of cash gold, you can't do it easily, and even if you can chances are the bullion dealers will see you coming and skim you for many millions. So why not simply buy 25,000 futures contracts over a period of a few months and just accept deliver. It's a rumour, but it makes a lot of sense.

For large quantities of the precious metals, taking delivery makes perfect sense, unless that is you are concerned about a paper trail. The costs involved in the transaction are minimal. Delivery is a bit of grunt as you have to send an armoured truck to the warehouse for transport of your cargo. Not such a bad idea as picking up 1 contract of silver (312 pounds} may draw some attention on the street. :P :P

No need for the armoured truck, the gold doesn't have to move. All gold that is to be delivered has to be in a bonded Comex warehouse (which isn't owned by Comex). There is certainly one in NY and maybe in London and Switz. If you're delivered gold then you have the choice to move it yourself or just keep it there and pay the storage costs.

 

That open interest of 118,000 is from close of business on Thursday. Friday's amount should be published soon and is shown on Kitco's homepage right where the Comex quotes are.

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Greg: No I do not know what the bulls mean? I grant you the mkt may pull out another fricking miracle and march higher, I concede anything is possible. More than a little tired of constantly hearing the bullhorning from the masses about how stocks have to go higher. It is extremely rare in history to see so many on the bull boat get rewarded, very rare, indeed, to see the mass crowds get it correct.

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Greg: No I do not know what the bulls mean? I grant you the mkt may pull out another fricking miracle and march higher, I concede anything is possible. More than a little tired of constantly hearing the bullhorning from the masses about how stocks have to go higher. It is extremely rare in history to see so many on the bull boat get rewarded, very rare, indeed, to see the mass crowds get it correct.

I think the point was

 

don't start lashing out at fellow forum members

 

he was trying to keep you from getting started... in a friendly way

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