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I Am "The Maestro"

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it's hard for heavily-propagandized folks to accept this...i've taken a lot of heat over it....but...


...it's been my observation, quite consistently proven simply by checking what was said 3 months ago and comparing it to now-known facts, that the MORE something is hyped on corpse-media, the LESS true it is.


and vice-versa of course.


therefore, since they bothered to gin up PR on it, I fully expect they ARE going to start dumping t-bills :P

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Dozer... If you open that thread, I'll post and read ..I'm always learning. Its an evolutionary process that evolves through practicality, necessity and ingenuity. You said it right though .. topography, natural assets and "development" potential.


When my New Holland skidsteer grows up, it wants to be a D9... He's so jealous... :cry:

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China near to agreeing state bank bail-outs


China is poised to agree a multi-billion dollar plan to recapitalise its insolvent big state banks through injections of government capital, a senior official told the Financial Times.


Mr Lou said Beijing was considering several ways to raise funds, including the PBoC "printing money", the state issuing debt and the PBoC using a portion of China's $400bn in foreign currency reserves.


Printing money? Does that sound bearish for gold? Lance Lewis said so, but I disagree and think the opposite.


Selling US$ reserves? Does Lance think that is bad for gold too?


Financial Times

Lance has been pounding the table about the Shanghai Comp nearing a crash.


We'll see if this announcement produces a vertical meltup similar to the Nikkei after the Resona bailout was announced.

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Some of the newly disclosed accounting adjustments involved inaccurate valuations of the company's huge derivative hedging portfolio. Others resulted from inadequate documentation of hedges.

Minds will be blown when the truth comes out about the size and scope of the hedging portfolios at FRE and FNM.


My prediction is this:


1) The notional amount of the HedgeBook will be found to be 10x larger than the entire portfolio of mortgages and mortgage backeds.


2) The potential for error (plus or minus $10 billions), profit or loss, on the HedgeBook will far exceed the possible profit or loss on the mortgage porfolio impacted by rising or falling interest rates.


3) 2/3 of the "executives" at FRE and FNM are currently working full time to try to understand the how this Paper Pyramid was constructed, how it can be unwound, how it can be simplified, or how it can be neutralized.


In short, these people have created a HedgeBook from Hell, one that is way too complex, and has spiraled out of control, and even the top execs don't have a clue as to what is in it, how it would react to "market events", or how to fix it if its broken.


The HedgeBook is a monster.


Its out of control.


It can't be "neutralized".


It can't be "turned off".


The HedgeBook will run its course, probably into a Black Hole, from whence it came:


The "Black Holes Model."


Good luck Dr. Myron and Dr. Scholes.

Someone earlier wanted indicia that we were topping out here and now.


BARE started to put up a post that said, essentially, what this post of Srf sez, but realized that wasn't, necessarily, a here and now, but ultimately scenario. However HRFF was contemplating addressing the overall derivatives situation of which the GSE's are only part. The ramping in this arena the past few years is indicative of mounting desperation, to this observer, especially when combined with 13 rate cuts, massive liquidity injection, the lowering of taxes and the putative 'stimulus' of war/the defense sector.


The lack of comprehension of derivatives doesn't just exist here in the GSE's, it's much more pervasive. How many trillions of 'em do we have now? Over 100? BARE stopped caring at 64 trillion. His poor little brain can't comprehend the scale of that, let alone a doubling thereuv.


Declining and stable interest rates have held the derivatives tower together, mostly, thus FUR.


When either rates rise sharply or there is hard movement in some other major sector, such as stocks or the dollar, then the wheels may come flying off - all of them. All at once.

Bank of International Settlements says that the notional value on swaps is currently ~$170 trillion, with majority being interest rate derivative instruments.


That said, the actual value at risk doesn't even come anywhere close to being $170 trillion.

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On another topic Gruffy late last night you set off to find sex my spies tell me you woke up with the beer machine in your BED-LOL-Trade safe!



Kinda true... I went to hang out with some friends and I did spend 30 divine minutes with a gorgeous, blonde, 25(ish)-yr old Flemish girl draped all over me; butt, I think it was only cos she was drunk :(


Also, she was my friend's on/off girlfriend of 8-yrs (first time I'd met her) = I had to chug a beer then leave.


Still enjoyable , though :) (edit: apart from having to listen to em speaking French :P)




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A threat, disguised as reassurance. How devious! :P


ha ha....rayok, i think you nailed it.


wife sez "how chinese..." :lol:



ano/b4, tanks for the links.


yah, cnn's working. if i'm reading it right, futures are 6 points below fair value and declining. :lol:



hadjin; hee-hee... :lol:


i'll tell ya, a Bobcat is something we WISH we had. Used a 763 for a week while we were loading the shop-trailer in MN last month, and realized how USEFUL a small machine can be. It was so....PRECISE....and maneuvered on a dime. Too bad they hold their value so well in the used market :P


Due to varying time-demands at the mine, I'm not known for a consistent presence, but I'll try to write something up and open a thread, and we'll see where it goes. This would be intended for practical ideas and advice, not rants.

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Hot market tip:


Costco: fresh Butterball turkeys 89 cents a lb. Buy 'em at the market. They won't go lower than this. :rolleyes:

Bought a 28 lb butterball at Safeway for $6. Safeway brands at $5.

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Euro launched beginning of 1999 at $1.17


steadily down first 2 years to $.85


then back and forth for 1 year between $.95 and $.85


then steadily up for 2 years back to $1.17


must be fun for those who know the direction in advance


back down to $.85 next 2 years?


Maybe so, if the 10:1 fractional reserve bankers have completed their massive U.S. debt expansion and now start the 1:10 dollar contraction squeeze, leaving 90% of U.S. homeowners deeply underwater on their mortgages and with their share of the enormous federal and state debts (bonds floated in their name without their consent) too big to ever pay off. U.S. middle class, now permanently enslaved, will watch helplessly as they tumble down to the poverty line with falling wages.


Credit card game over, Ditech home equity game over, now must sell mutal funds and borrow against 401K to keep both SUV's gassed up.


If They want to keep Bush in, things will be flat to positive in a holding pattern until after the election, then catastrophe/foreclosure/burning pits of diesel time.


If They want him out, diesel time starts any day now.


I think they'll keep him, because he's good for additional debt loads piled on the middle class taxpayer in $87 Billion increments from time to time, very nice indeed for more control and more interest income for Them.

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Hadjin, will you marry me?

Hadjin, I can patrol your ranch while you are away. I'm in norcal and can get there fast, plus I'll bring my own artillery.

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