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"Could it be different this time?"


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As Mark and shorty pointed out, the whole energy complex -- crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline -- has EXPLODED.

 

Gold was the first shoe to drop ... energy is the 'other shoe' ... the kiss of death for the stock market.

 

Monster raving bearish.  :ph34r:

cancelled my PPP buy order

 

when big brother speak..., I am humble.

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As Mark and shorty pointed out, the whole energy complex -- crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline -- has EXPLODED.

 

Gold was the first shoe to drop ... energy is the 'other shoe' ... the kiss of death for the stock market.

 

Monster raving bearish. :ph34r:

Funny, though, that the Market seems to be mainly unaware of its imminent demise.

 

To reverse paraphrase Twain, the Market might say:

 

"Reports of my health have been greatly exagerated"

 

:P

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am holding some NEM 45 nov calls, which the wife said "sell!", and I was going to...but sphinx and wndy got me thinking....mebbe it's worth holding for another day....

dozer...not that I'm going to tell you how to do options, not at all, but...

 

OPEX week is an equal opportunity ball crusher, especially for drive-through OPEX party animals who hold front month expiries. Take your winners an run with 'em. Or take profits and move to (at least) Dec.,

 

But then, who am I to give advice. g'luck!!

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As Mark and shorty pointed out, the whole energy complex -- crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline -- has EXPLODED.

 

Gold was the first shoe to drop ... energy is the 'other shoe' ... the kiss of death for the stock market.

 

Monster raving bearish. ?:ph34r:

Funny, though, that the Market seems to be mainly unaware of its imminent demise.

It is funny how the market will sometimes have a delayed reaction to news.

 

We're all keying off the new high in the Dec. 2003 crude oil contract. The nearby contract (now expired) reached almost $40 in March.

 

The sheeple won't hear anything about this until tonight or tomorrow, and it will be low key since the media pay little attention to the futures markets.

 

The oil price increase won't become a big deal in the media until it hits $40 -- which technically, owing to today's breakout, is the next target.

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HUI has quite a bit of fib resistance at 240-250

 

Something I find interesting is the complete lack of discussion re: deflation.

 

It appears that conventional wisdom is that the Fed has defeated deflation.

 

All the Fed has done is to defeat the dollar and import inflation, AS LONG AS THE DOLLAR DROPS. But at some point, other nations will move to devalue their own currencies.

 

 

For the deflationary scenario to occur, look for the following

 

Bonds have to keep going up. Yields are forming a triangle pattern

 

The HUI has to turn down at 240 zone

 

The dollar has to bounce at the 87-89 zone

 

IMO, we are on the verge of Hyper's worse-case scenario.

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I find these two graphs to be a bit odd when taken together.

 

How can you have both at the same time?

 

Given the China/JPY/et al. have bought 40+% of the bonds, it seems improbable that you can suffer a multi-currency collapse of the USD and have bonds hold steady.

 

Must be some serious buying of bonds by "our" guys.

 

 

idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

tenyearprice.png

 

Your tax dollars at work.

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Plan bee

 

gold up...... check

 

Energy up....check

 

Comod.........check

 

Thank all in stoolville.....check

 

polish speech........check

 

take gun and rope back.....check

 

only read bearman...check :P :P :P

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

dat's the funniest thing i've read all day farmer!

 

:lol:

 

 

Long: i appreciate the tip. i KNOW i should sell 'em now...and the nest-building half of the species sez so too...but NEM just keeps goin UP dammit! greed is overtaking fear, know what i mean? :P

 

well, i only have a c-note into 'em...i think i'm gonna take a flyer and see what happens tomorrow. prolly get my balls crushed just as you say, but what the hell....risk/reward ratio, right? :lol:

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