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The Shape Of Things To Come?


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. . . Or as Professor Mises portrayed the collapse of Rome, a victim of sustained interventionism, a lesson for our own interventionistic age, writing in Human Action (1949, p. 763):

 

The marvelous civilization of antiquity perished because it did not adjust its moral code and its legal system to the requirements of the market economy. A social order is doomed if the actions which its normal functioning require are rejected by the standards of morality, are declared to be illegal by the laws of the country, and are prosecuted as criminal by the courts and the police. The Roman Empire crumbled to dust because it lacked the spirit of liberalism and free enterprise. The policy of interventionism and its political corollary, the Fuhrer principle, decomposed the mighty empire as they will by necessity always disintegrate and destroy any social entity . . .

 

 

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The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California hit a new record during the third quarter of 2003, rising 20 percent to $386,340, the California Association of REALTORS? (C.A.R.) reported today.

 

The 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during the third quarter 2003 were: Malibu, $1,239,500; Belvedere/Tiburon, $1,225,000; Los Altos, $1,100,000; Manhattan Beach, $1,080,000; Palos Verdes Estates, $1,050,000; Beverly Hills, $1,000,000; Laguna Beach, $1,000,000; Saratoga, $995,000; Coronado, $970,000; Pebble Beach, $945,000.

 

The 10 California cities and communities with the largest annual increase in their respective median home prices during the third quarter 2003 compared to the same period in 2002 were: Malibu, 57.9 percent; Sanger, 57.2 percent; San Juan Capistrano, 39.1 percent; Atascadero, 38.6 percent; Artesia, 36.9 percent; San Fernando, 36 percent; Desert Hot Springs, 35.1 percent; Laguna Hills, 34.6 percent; Fontana, 33.5 percent; California City, 32.2 percent.

 

Parabolic goes vertical

 

"A bubble can only be identified in retrospect." - Al Greasepan, space cadet
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MH - Yikes! :o :o :o

 

I believe that the outcome of all this is now binary.

 

Either it will be OK, or it will be horrible. White or black.

 

I no longer subscribe to the Mauldin "Muddle Through" hypothesis.

 

In England, they are preparing for Bush's visit by constructing effigies to burn.

 

Over here, I the odds are now heavily stacked in favor of a run on paper mache' coupled to a rash of Google searches for likenesses of Federal Reserve Board members. And pitchforks.

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Rally Winding Up

 

High Base Ahead

 

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FRB San Francisco (Kevin Lansing, author):

 

Empirical evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy has reacted directly to the stock market during the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

 

Rigobon and Sack (2003) employ high frequency data on stock market movements and interest rate changes from 1985 to 2000. They find that a 5% decrease (increase) in the S&P 500 over the course of a week raises the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut (hike) by 64%.

 

Day trader Al

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FRB San Francisco (Kevin Lansing, author):

 

Empirical evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy has reacted directly to the stock market during the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

 

Rigobon and Sack (2003) employ high frequency data on stock market movements and interest rate changes from 1985 to 2000. They find that a 5% decrease (increase) in the S&P 500 over the course of a week raises the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut (hike) by 64%.

 

Day trader Al

Statitically ananlysis to dry for you? How 'bout from the horses collective asses:

 

Hayford and Malliaris (2001)  studied Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts during Greenspan's  term. The authors conclude that FOMC members paid significant attention  to the valuation of the stock market and that, on some occasions, concerns about the stock market directly influenced the conduct of U.S. monetary  policy
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FRB San Francisco (Kevin Lansing, author):

 

Empirical evidence suggests that U.S. monetary policy has reacted directly to the stock market during the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

 

Rigobon and Sack (2003) employ high frequency data on stock market movements and interest rate changes from 1985 to 2000. They find that a 5% decrease (increase) in the S&P 500 over the course of a week raises the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut (hike) by 64%.

 

Day trader Al

Statitically ananlysis to dry for you? How 'bout from the horses collective asses:

 

Hayford and Malliaris (2001)  studied Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts during Greenspan's  term. The authors conclude that FOMC members paid significant attention  to the valuation of the stock market and that, on some occasions, concerns about the stock market directly influenced the conduct of U.S. monetary  policy

 

Duh-uh.

 

Tracked daily in the Feed Report.

 

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