Why Digital Photography has no effect...

[Slothrop]

Barron's, 10/13 issue, page 38. Letter to the editor.

 

"The Sept. 29 commodities column titled "Ho-Hum Silver" has a serious error in regards to the effect of digital photography on silver demand. It is true that the rise of digital photographny has made significant inroads into traditional silver-hadlide photography. However, since the vast majority of the silver is recovered from the silver-halide process, it shows up on the supply side of the equation in the form of scrap. Therefore, despite the rise of digital photography, the overall supply-demand balance will remain largely unaffected."

[Goldilocks]

Digital photography will kill silver

 

http://216.239.53.100/search?q=cache:PsmuM...&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

"Myth 2: Digital photography already is

sharply decreasing silver use in photography It has been repeatedly suggested

for nearly two decades that digital photography would one day replace

traditional silver-halide based photography entirely. More recently, there have

been suggestions that the declines are already in place and eroding photographic

demand for silver. Again, this is not accurate. Silver use in photographic

materials-papers and films-is estimated to have risen about 6.0% worldwide in

2000. Demand is estimated to have increased 8.3% in the United States, and 6.3%

in Japan. Major photographic companies are increasing their manufacturing

capacity in the face of stronger demand growth. From 1980 through 1998 the

compounded annual growth rate in silver use in photography was around 4.0%. Last

year's increase was 50% above that long term trend growth rate. This represents

a definite acceleration in the demand for silver-bearing photograph-ic products that flies in the face of

the rumours that digital is killing this market. One of the main reasons for the

recent strength-ironically enough-has been the advent of digital photography,

although most of the increased silver use reflects expanding traditional

photography. Consumer appetites for conventional photography have been growing

stronger world-wide. The Advanced Photo System introduced in the late 1990s has

boosted both picture taking and the number of reprints being made, while rising

disposable income from Asia to Latin America has increased demand in these

countries. Also, most consumers are not ready for digital photography at this

point, with the cost still prohibitively high for most people in the world and

many consumers not yet computerized. Many observers had presumed that pure

digital photography, which does not use silver in actually capturing the image,

would naturally lead to a decline in silver usage. However, just as the

'paperless office' has prompted a surge in paper use, digital photography is

increasing the popularity of photography and of traditional photographic demand.

Much of the digital imaging business is actually a combination of traditional

imaging techniques and newer digital technologies. The images are captured on

conventional film, and much of the final output still uses either conventional

photographic papers or other silver-coated papers. In between, the images are

digitized, edited, and manipulated. In sum, digital photography is not

necessarily a negative for silver. In fact, if one is objective about the impact

of digital photography on silver, one needs to calculate both the possible

long-term losses in silver demand on the consumption side of the market and the

reduction in supply that would occur due to reductions in silver recovery from

spent photographic products, which accounts for around 85% of the 190 million

ounces recycled each year.

 

- So. ~161 Million ounces of Silver is recycled each year from photographic uses. From 1992 to 2001 I show an average usage of 212 Million ounces of Silver in photography. This means that 51 million ounces of demand is all that would be lost net if all silver photo usage went away. Consider that the average deficit for the same time period was 137.8 Million ounces..... Your still talking about a 86.8 Million ounce deficit. The latest CPM group numbers show that total known 'available' world silver reserves in late 2002 have now dipped well below 400 Million ounces. 2003 is expected to have a total deficit of ~127 Million ounces.

Nice numbers.