Guest bullseatshitndie Posted November 4, 2003 Report Share Posted November 4, 2003 hanky, great chart. been following this same model as well. puts spx high dec 3 +/- 3days at 1081. don't know if you following 10yr futures, but crash since june following same pattern as 30yr bonds futures did in 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 5, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2003 MC, Your count could work but if what we just saw was a 3-wave A then this should turn into a 3-3-5 flat....classic EW says zig-zag A's must be 5 waves for 5-3-5.So if that count is correct we could get a complete retracement to the all time high or higher( extended flat)!!!I don't see the sentiment picture or economic conditions supporting this but who knows. I just can't give your count presented much priority. This chart I think has the best fit EW count I believe from Elliott Wave Intl and so we are in Wave 3 (or C) getting ready for the third of a third (or C) almost always the biggest, highest momentum move. It sure seems like this rally is setting up for it! So the next leg down could be a C and the last one, but it still will do a lot of damage. I don't know of any well-known Elliottician's that can give this a credible count that proves the bear is over! Robert Miner, EWI(Prechter), and Connie Brown are the best classic EW technicians I know. Glenn Neely and Goran Zuyer are neowavists...Glen is probably the least bearish but his stuff is so complex it makes me dizzy. So far nothing at all about this "new bull market" rally that discredits the popular EW view. A big blow would be to take out the post 9/11 high. It's still quite a ways up there and we are coming up on massive resistance at 1089! Another fustrating move would be for this so far simple zig-zag corrective wave to turn into a complex sideways structure lasting many more months or years that would support Miner's view that only 1 complete 5 wave down has occurred ( and he is labeling an A ) and we are now in large degree wave B. But again eventually we get around to the C but wouldn't be bad if B carries us back up quite a ways... Anyhow I am just paying attention to see if this thing can keep grinding up to the post 9-11 high...if it takes it out next year...I will have to shed a lot of fur. Regards, MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 5, 2003 Report Share Posted November 5, 2003 Your count could work but if what we just saw was a 3-wave A then this should turn into a 3-3-5 flat Thanks for your comments MH. As far as I am concerned that is consistent with what we are seeing (3-3-5 off October lows). The question I have related to that count is whether that would be all of big B or merely (A) of B. Anyway, though there are a frustrating number of big picture scenarios the current action is IMO clearly an ending diagonal. Hopefully the shape of the ensuing decline will narrow down the options. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted November 5, 2003 Report Share Posted November 5, 2003 At some point, there must be a correction back to the 4th wave of lesser degree in the rally from the lows of 1932, at Supercycle degree.. That 4th wave range hovered around the Dow 1000 level for 15 years, from 1967 to 1982.. It's also obvious that the 5th wave ended in 2000 since a prior year low was taken out, that being the Oct-1998 lows.. Therefore the US markets will re-visit the Dow 1k level, according to the rules of EWT.. When is anyone's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 5, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2003 Sasquach, I agree....the 1929 was obviously a sharp simple zig zag type correction and the 1960 forward a complex sideways to fit the rule of alternation and we have just put in a 5th wave top...and yes it should go to the area of the 4th wave lower degree which is 1000 at least... If you do a fib time extension .38 minimum of that entire move for an estimated ultimate bottom, yeah thats still a long time off and I probably won't live that long! Wave A's can be 3's in zig zags too but the strict rule is they should be a 5...you can count the Oct bounce either way but I see a 5... MC what I meant was NOT this current corrective wave will be a flat, but with your HUGE 3-wave A it would mean a huge 3-wave B up to prior ALL TIME high (regular flat) and maybe beyond (extended flat) would be in the mix. I dunno about that but the bulls would love that one! The ensuing C if the B works its way back up quite a ways could end up being pretty tame from a long-term perspective too. I admit it's possible but your the first one I have seen ever propose this....and you would have to accept the extreme 9-11 panic distorted the B-wave so it looks odd...but I don't like making special cases when it's hard enough just to follow the "normal" ones! The longer this rally goes on, even if it doesn't take out the post 9-11 high, the more I will lean towards Miners count from a time balance perpective, you would need to see this as some larger degree correction. But for now the wave 2 of the third down and most immediately bearish view ( EWI's view) is what I am accepting. This sure fits a w.C eating those who trading against it alive! Best Regards, MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 5, 2003 Report Share Posted November 5, 2003 Again thanks for your comments, MH. MC what I meant was NOT this current corrective wave will be a flat, but with your HUGE 3-wave A it would mean a huge 3-wave B up to prior ALL TIME high (regular flat) and maybe beyond (extended flat) would be in the mix. ? Not trying to be difficult here but I am not aware of any rules or guidelines that impose specific requirements on the size of B relative to A except that B should effect a minimum 38.2% retracement of A. Please point me to any sources you may have that suggest otherwise?? As far as I am concerned the only requirements are related to form as opposed to magnitude and they seem to be potentially satisfied by the count I presented i.e. a completing 3-3-5 flat off the October lows, following a 3 wave A. Furthermore, the market psychology here in my view seems highly suggestive of a B wave mentality. Anyway, not much point in going on about this in tedious detail as we should shortly get a much better feel for whether the coming decline is impulsive or corrective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 As far as I am concerned the only requirements are related to form as opposed to magnitude and they seem to be potentially satisfied by the count I presented i.e. a completing 3-3-5 flat off the October lows, following a 3 wave A. Furthermore, the market psychology here in my view seems highly suggestive of a B wave mentality. MC, OK, my understanding is a FLAT always requires 1)3-3-5 : A-B-C Wave Count AND 2)WAVE B COMPLETELY AND MINIMALLY RETRACES ALL OF WAVE A (an "extended flat" B goes beyond the start of wave A Otherwise, it should be labeled a ZIG-ZAG which should have a 1)5-3-5 : A-B-C Wave Count (although wave A not being a 5 is not a serious violation of classic EWT. 2)wave B does NOT completely retrace A but usually a fib proportion of it. A clear 3-wave A is much more likely to turn into a flat rather than a zig-zag. Zig-zags almost always start with a pretty good impluse wave and therefore 5 count. A 3 count indicates less implusiveness and reason wave B proceeds to completely retrace A in FLATS. This definition is in Frost and Prechter's classic EW text,"Elliott Wave Principle" How are you seeing a flat off the October lows????????? Also, the market psychology thing is very subjective and relative factor to employ when determining wave counts...although it is part of the Theory and the EWI boys do it all the time. But I agree this could certainly be a BIG B-WAVE and that is how Robert Miner has labeled it ! In addition, using the classic definition of a FLAT (COMPLETE A wave RETRACEMENT by the B wave) along with your MEGA 3-wave A down implies this B wave will go on eventually back to prior all time March 2000 highs and maybe beyond. (3-wave A's much more likely to turn into FLATS with complete retracement, right?) But I highly doubt it because of the extreme sentiment we see so far and many fundamental economic problems, I just don't see any possibility of this but maybe the Chinese will take a real liking to eating McDonalds and driving Fords! The first sign this could be possible is taking out the post 9-11 highs and it is an interesting thought I had never made until your post. But anyway I am not being picky either and love discussing this stuff but I don't think I understand what you are using to determine a FLAT vs ZIG-ZAG and that is extremely important to EWT! Very Best Regards, MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 Yes this did come close to a full retracement and wave A sure looks like a 3 but "by the book" it should be referred to as a ZIG-ZAG! MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 "But it's different THIS time" Infamous Bull snort being heard on Crapvision again! This expanding triangle makes a nasty implication about the ensuing decline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 Finger on trigger to add SPY short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 Here is the Gann SQ 144 on monthly from 3/1994 low , final bubble-blast start. The SP topped at exactly 1/2 in time (72 months) into the square, the post 9-11 top is at 2/3's (96months),and the March 2003 rally started from the 3/4(108months)...so this must be kept on the watch list and would point to a major top or bottom in 3/2006. Also the SP respecting the 1/3's(green lines) in price up and down. This square is pretty much an extension of the square 144 from 1982 low (I will post this later...look for it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 DOW EW Anal-ysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 NDX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 6, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2003 Sq 144 on DOW from 1982 start of the bull Thirds are in red for better visibility... Big lows on 1/3's in time, this full square will end in 8-06. Will the low be back where it started? Look how price reacted around each full square up in price...there is one very close to 10,000 that we are now testing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted November 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2003 Sucklical Research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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