Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

MrHankydoesWallStreet

SP Gann Anal-ysis

Recommended Posts

Ready to power through the 1.0 barrier and launch the superBOOM into

its full glory. Cube Trader still on ST hold signal...first QQQ trade of the year up 3.6% waiting for much, much more.

 

Hank-o-meter remains moderately bullish but close to strong bull signal!

 

gotta get back home...jo jo I mean mo mo...off to Bull Stool.

 

C Ya

post-13-1074048091.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SP simplified, one big 5WD. Target is start of last wave down @ 1160.

should start to finally see some deterioration of internals on the final push up to it.

Maybe decline here and one last "weak" wave up but I think we are just going

to keep on going!

 

Cube Trader still in cash. Semi's and Tele's looking to lead the next run.

May go with TTH and SMH when Cube Trader says "GO"

post-13-1074222970.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
SJ,

Keep reading my posts at Bull Stool especially between the lines!

 

;)

Super Boom or Super Bust????

 

Hankster the prankster I think I am too naive to read between the lines..please post your thoughts as clearly as you can...here or there doesnt matter.

 

I spent the entirety of last night pouring over your charts here and at bull stool and it all seems to be pointing up up and away...panic mode buying feeding upon itself for perhaps years to come. I dont even know what to call it. Mad Bull Disease???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yellowfish,

 

Ok, time to come clean:

 

NO, I DO NOT "BELIEVE" IN A superBOOM ;)

 

This all started when I opened one of the numerous, "make a million right now" newletters solicitations I receive daily entitled,"Don't miss the coming economic SUPER BOOM" Now I have seen some pretty outrageous extrapolations but this one just made me laugh hysterically with the one enormous assumption the "omnipotent director" Greenspan can control everything and will "create" the superBOOM to insure Bush gets re-elected but the boom will go on through the rest of his second term and maybe longer :o

Nothing mentioned about mundane things like overvaluation, asset bubbles, record public and private debts and deficits, plunging currency, underreported unemployment and inflation figures, etc., etc.

But I also believe it is impossible to predict if and when a total systemic collapse may occur via hyperinflation and currency debasement or runaway "bad" deflation. The 1929 crash was the only one in our nation's history and there have been many secular bear markets that just had longer and more frequent recessions as the various economic and monetary dislocations underwent changes that always brought us forward in terms of increased per capita GDP.

 

The bottom line is the stock market remains grossly overvalued by any measure and as John Hussman states of very poor investment value but moderate(at present) speculative value.

Michael Alexander has accurately identified a 26-year valuation cycle and proposed a model of alternating real and monetary growth cycles(see chart below). His research is the most convincing and relevant analysis of longer term economic and stock market cycles I have ever read. I am not a big funnymentalist but what little I devote to it is spent between him and John Hussman.

 

I am a very conservative investor AND trader. I don't trade a lot of individual stocks because I don't have the time (I still have a "real" job which I love) and don't like having lots of open positions which to me is more than 5 or 6. I prefer system trading; much less stress and psychological barriers to success than active trading. Some day that may change. We have a lot of very experienced and skilled traders here and I just love watching them operate! This is a great place to learn and find the necessary comeraderie one needs in that tough business.

 

Also, I have emphasized I don't like looking out more than a few months at most and don't need to in order to make money trading. Time is always the greater challenge to forecasting than price. The only method that offers any real chance of doing so are well-proven, reasonably stable, and measurable "static" cycles. Also to a much lesser degree dynamic time projections using Fibonacci and Gann methods. You see me attempting to apply them on some of my charts. Price objectives are much more easy to identify but not as critical because ultimately timing is everything in trading, right!!

 

I have recently posted my IT outlook at this point in time.

Time = Rally into March maybe June

Price = SP 1160ish.

 

Here we meet the next level of extreme price resistance and heavy time confluences in both March and then again in June.

 

:cry: Will we head right back down to 2002 low or lower and superBUST. Definitely possible, especially if all the uglies start surfacing that are discussed here at CS.

 

:D Will we consolidate and move higher and superBOOM? Rampant Mad Bull disease, love that one! But it will have to do so on the 4-yr cycle downdraft and defy Longer valuation cycles identified by Alexander. Already I am not too favorable towards this.

 

:unsure: Will we go into a long sideways, choppy affair ala Japan with rolling recessionitis and superFIZZLE. Very good possibility also. Probably the best "realistic" outcome.

 

OK, now can I go back to my superBOOM posting at BS?

Please, oh please! :P

 

Hank

post-13-1074286984.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!



Old Stool Depository


The Wall Street Examiner
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner
Contact Us




Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com.
×