FeedFool Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 If anyone is playing big time then only game in town is long the Joke, gold, Nikkei and short the Butt paper. Shorting any stocks is not recommended before the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinky Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 Mr Hanky: Please don't stop. I love your charts and find them helpful!! All you efforts are much appreciated. Thanks, Stinky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 Stinky, Thankyou for your kind words. Like the guest host on Chris Mathews', "Hardball," (who failed to ask him one hardball question last evening), the U.S. stock market seems to be worshipping at the feet of Larry Kudlow. Kudlow has taken over the "sunshine boy" duties that used to be the exclusive province of the Rukeyser show - both of whom should only live in infamy after failing to serve investors with proper warnings and tools before and during the worst NASDAQ bear market ever. The professional optimists and partisans to the great economic experiment of the new century, flush with money from fund investors who follow the "dumb luck" philosophy of investing, are celebrating tonight. Hoopla and hype. Hoopla and hype reigns. And there is no telling how high this "new bull" will carry. We enter 2004 in a precarious situation. Yes, the bull can run much farther. Yes, a severe correction can begin at any time. Stock market pros and individuals alike "love" this country and "support" the troops - but HATE paying taxes more than any group I've ever met. If they can't get out of paying taxes on profits, they try to postpone paying them at all costs. The triple bottom of June-Oct-March was very obvious classic technical trade any fool could spot. Just how "brave" you were to stick with the reversal has determined how much you made. Those holding positions from then along the way will qualify for special reduced capital gains rates (15%) LT capital gains rate this March forward. Profit taking will accelerate. I focus on technical analysis. 90% of it is worthless drivel; and you don't need most of my charts. The short and intermediate trends are up. That's all we need to know. And 99% of fundamental analysis is worthless so I waste little time on this. Life is much too short! A fellow e-mailed to give his plan for 2004: "The same as the last 20 years - keep looking for an expert on the stock market." The market is the only expert on the market; and the only people who CONSISTENTLY beat the benchmark S&P 500 use trend/momentum systems and stronger than market investment vehicles. There is absolutely no reason to be invested in something all the time or to spread assets around so as to achieve mediocre performance. 2004 - It will be like no other year, ever. The MHWS site is down. It got to be more work than fun. But I will keep posting with the objective and non-judgemental approach I strongly adhere to. I detest those making demeaning comments and providing criticism with no explanation. Not just worthless drivel but pure idiocy. Good luck! Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 The MHWS site is down. It got to be more work than fun.But I will keep posting with the objective and non-judgemental approach I strongly adhere to. Please do. In a world where all of the classic TA indicators are available at the touch of a menu button, it takes 'out of the box' thinking to add any value and insight. Many of your posts do that. Usually critics are frustrated at their own lack of talent, originality and results. Ignore them. To paraphrase an old saying, "Trading well is the best revenge." As you say, 2004 is likely to be an extraordinary year ... when many traders will either earn their spurs, or hang them up. This year is not to be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdon Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 And there is no telling how high this "new bull" will carry.We enter 2004 in a precarious situation. Yes, the bull can run much farther. Yes, a severe correction can begin at any time. Stock market pros and individuals alike "love" this country and "support" the troops - but HATE paying taxes more than any group I've ever met. If they can't get out of paying taxes on profits, they try to postpone paying them at all costs. The triple bottom of June-Oct-March was very obvious classic technical trade any fool could spot. Just how "brave" you were to stick with the reversal has determined how much you made. Those holding positions from then along the way will qualify for special reduced capital gains rates (15%) LT capital gains rate this March forward. Profit taking will accelerate. I focus on technical analysis. 90% of it is worthless drivel; and you don't need most of my charts. The short and intermediate trends are up. That's all we need to know. And 99% of fundamental analysis is worthless so I waste little time on this. Life is much too short! A fellow e-mailed to give his plan for 2004: "The same as the last 20 years - keep looking for an expert on the stock market." The market is the only expert on the market; and the only people who CONSISTENTLY beat the benchmark S&P 500 use trend/momentum systems and stronger than market investment vehicles. There is absolutely no reason to be invested in something all the time or to spread assets around so as to achieve mediocre performance. 2004 - It will be like no other year, ever. The MHWS site is down. It got to be more work than fun. But I will keep posting with the objective and non-judgemental approach I strongly adhere to. I detest those making demeaning comments and providing criticism with no explanation. Not just worthless drivel but pure idiocy. Good luck! Hank Mr. Hanky--So confusing you have the same initials as MachineHead. But anyway, good no-nonsense summation of a position, although I don't see why 2004 will be anymore amazing in how it unfolds than 2003 was. Once again, to quote a song of "wisdom," it may indeed be "Judy's turn to cry" this year (boy do I date myself on this one). When Johnny comes back to his senses is the only intangible; and whether a cycle anal cyst such as Doc or Bressart or Curry or an Ord/Wykoff/Steve Woods volume anal cyst has a better feel for when this turn occurs is anybody's guess. I think the latter are good for picking stocks or groups of stocks, as their record in this area has been quite good. I must commend you on noting an obvious but rarely mentioned fact that most of the "dumb and lucky" buy and holders have LT gains after mid-March. Whether that time frame marks the end of this up phase in dramatic fashion or whether it marks the beginning of increasingly tough sledding as the bulls keep trying to push this market higher with an outcome of a slow inexorable grind down with an ever greater angle of descent we shall see. (Question: Was the fact that when many will have LT gains a fundamental or technical statement?) P.S. Don't mind the occasional grenade thrown at you by a "where was my brain when I said this" stoolie. Most of the time they leave the pin in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Machinehead, Microdon, tph, bearbones, stinky, ff, and others I apologize for being so negative as of late. Thankyou for your kind words and encouragement. Life has dealt me a few very bad blows as 2003 came to an end and my attitude has suffered. I am so glad it is over! So let's get 2004 rolling and squeeze some green out those Wall Street scum! Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Microdon, I guess I have to classify my comment on LT gains profit taking as a fundamental analysis. OK, chalk that one up to the 1% that might be relevant! We will know when the CHARTS tell us ....hehehe.... Hank Long QQQ at 35.80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted January 2, 2004 Report Share Posted January 2, 2004 Keep your mind open what we are seeing is wave 5 and the correction from Y2K was wave 4. Buy cyclical and commodity stocks with wave 4 type correction. Don?t short housing stocks yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Out of WWCA short with a little profit. Only open short left is AMZN Long QQQ No golds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 HHH Abby C let out of the zoo to peddle .com P's OS again... Unf______ing believable and eeery...I'm feeling like Bill Murrey in Groundhog Day. But if this is a replay...March should start the next BIG FALL. HHH looks good for a pop to mid upper 50's ... Will watch for the big turn here at the 2.618 EXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Higher rates on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 3, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2004 Chinamart ready to bounce... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted January 4, 2004 Report Share Posted January 4, 2004 Chinamart ready to bounce... I think so too. I am short WMT from 52.95 and my tight stop will be a reversal. Support is 50.50 and resistance is 53.32. I reverse at about 52.42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 6, 2004 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2004 Strong move on cubes and a lot more to come! I've decided to move over to bullstool.com. Thread from here now moving here: http://www.bullstool.com/bullstools/index.php?showtopic=123 Seems more appropriate for the coming global super boom. All of the rules have changed due to the prudent and effective use of derivatives to diversify risk throughout the world of finance along with the integration and cooperation of Central Banks to create an environment of stability and vastly increase the efficient use and allocation of capital world-wide. Debt-deflation dynamics are as outdated as the gold standard. Commodities are going up simply in anticipation of the burgeoning demand as we enter a new age of global high-tech industrial growth. My predictions for 2004: Nasdaq 3000 Dow 15000 SP 1520 USD 80 GOLD $550 TNX 3.1 % OIL $42 MO Hanky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted January 6, 2004 Report Share Posted January 6, 2004 Gosh, Hank, I'm almost speechless. I've enjoyed your analysis but this is quite a conversion. Visited your thread over on Bullstool and found this: The Global Super Economic Boom is on the way and the 2003-2010 bull market will be the MOST PROFITABLE in history. Even before election day the DOW will be scoring new highs as the best of both worlds, high growth and low inflation blow the roof off the indices. The nineties productivity miracle is the reason...Although the boom will create tremendous demand for energy and raw materials, vast new supplies of oil and gas will be coming online from Iraq and the former Soviet Union and its oil rich republics and help moderate the price. Lower interest rates along with continued tax reductions and record deficit spending will perpetually stimulate the housing and automobile markets as Americans continue to scale up in lifestyle with bigger homes and larger SUV's. "Easy money everywhere" will be the theme. It's almost like reading Harry Dent's "Roaring 2000's". I'm long the Qs, too, but gee whillikers... Well, here's to your health...physical and otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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