buttugly Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 and bond guys are meant to be smart can anyone read in this country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Meaningless except to gamers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 of course the numbers are lies they emanate from the govt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Remember, these numbers are fixed using a new methodology. I read a warning on another board earlier this week, that they would show a big upside surprise and jam the market. next tiem please tell such things before data comes. I didnt know that a new method will be used. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 I, for one, don't believe those numbers. All from personal experience and anecdote, but these numbers are inconsistent with my reality. Anybody else? In my earlier post I pointed out that there could be a large upward adjustment to reconcile the payroll and household data. Apparently, people are losing payroll jobs and starting businesses. The previous numbers were not counting those correctly. Average hourly earnings declined and the workweek did not expand. FWIW on the differance between the two jobs numbers Sept. 18 New York Times: "Slippery Data on the Job Market," by Alan Krueger "Much has been made recently of the divergent trends displayed by the two surveys. Since the official end of the recession in November 2001, the establishment survey indicates that employment fell by 1.1 million jobs, while the household survey indicates that it grew by 1.4 million." "But the picture is not nearly as cloudy as some have made it out to be. First, the household survey shows an artificial jump of more than half a million jobs in January 2003 because of a technical adjustment that ratcheted up the size of the population that month. ... If adjustments are made to the household survey to make it count jobs in a manner comparable to the establishment survey, then instead of an increase of 842,000 jobs since August 2002, the household survey indicates a loss of 425,000 jobs -- almost as large as the 560,000 jobs lost according to the establishment survey." "These adjustments do not account for the entire divergence between the surveys since the end of the recession, but both surveys point to a job-loss recovery." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 No massive rally in the dollar. I'll leave you with this before I go over to Stooltrading. The 8 day cycle cmap on the SPY is 103.75. Join me an your buds in Stooltrading. Should be an interesting day. Trial Subscription Click Here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 As I've said before, 1065-1070 is a target a hundred ways until Sunday. And I've got a lot of stocks with fib turn dates next week. Look for SPY short in the 108-109 zone. Look for low 5 day TRIN. We may need until next week to get this Look for high TICK. We already have that. Look for low P/C reading. We need at least one day of the next 3 or 4 days to show a .40/.50 P/C reading. So the ultimate setup, IMO SP 500 1065-1070 area Next week, preferably Wednesday or Thursday Very low TRIN readings over the next 4 days At least one very low P/C ratio over the next 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Selling of treasuries yesterday was the tip off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 As I've said before, 1065-1070 is a target a hundred ways until Sunday. And I've got a lot of stocks with fib turn dates next week. Look for SPY short in the 108-109 zone. Look for low 5 day TRIN. We may need until next week to get this Look for high TICK. We already have that. Look for low P/C reading. We need at least one day of the next 3 or 4 days to show a .40/.50 P/C reading. So the ultimate setup, IMO SP 500 1065-1070 area Next week, preferably Wednesday or Thursday Very low TRIN readings over the next 4 days At least one very low P/C ratio over the next 4 days. I'm expecting a +2000 TICK reading on the open. Never seen so much euphoria. By the way, gold has held $382 twice this morning. Can't jam it down. Interesting. Must be problems within the Matrix Computers. Maria looks extra juicy this morning, wearing that black cable knit sweater. Makes her boobs look twice as big. She must have a lifetime prescription to Allergan Botox and Collagen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Erlanger says up until October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 of course the numbers are lies they emanate from the govt. Numbers are just that-numbers. There is plenty of bearish news in the employment stats. At this point in time investors, or gamers, choose to read the news as bullish. They ignore the underlying issues and focus on the headline number. Every dog, bull, and monkey has his day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 One more thing. It now seems pointless to ever short. Look how well the market has done with BAD payroll news. Now we get "good" payroll news, so the market will never stop going up. We know that isn't true, but the point is that the market finally has some good news, and everybody that isn't in will be getting in over the next 3-4 days. A top can't be made without the public buying stocks. The insiders need a bid below the market besides the shorts. Now they have the bid. It is time for a top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darktrader Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Yes, buying at open ES ....everyone trying to short, I mean everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Numbers are just that-numbers. There is plenty of bearish news in the employment stats. At this point in time investors, or gamers, choose to read the news as bullish. They ignore the underlying issues and focus on the headline number. Every dog, bull, and monkey has his day. hey you forgot BEARS "Every dog, bull, and monkey has his day" BEARS will have years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Janitor Posted October 3, 2003 Report Share Posted October 3, 2003 Snif, snif Smell of charred fur in the air. I am also getting burnt on my SPX puts - ouch. This is over reaction, will end in tears. Our market (South Africa) also took of like Chinese candle on news. My thoughts - too many bears out there. Need to shake out the weak ones. Good luck guys PS - goooooooooooo Micky D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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